Not long ago, Honda, the world's largest motorcycle manufacturer, announced that it will suspend production of two-wheeled gasoline vehicles by the mid-2040s, and the new car will be converted into pure electric motorcycles.

When the automotive industry fully switches to electrification, the electrification trend of the two-wheeled motorcycle industry is becoming clear.

Not long ago, Honda, the world's largest motorcycle manufacturer, announced that it will suspend production of two-wheeled gasoline vehicles by the mid-2040s, and the new car will be converted into pure electric (EV) motorcycles. Honda said it will launch more than 10 pure electric motorcycles by 2025, and plans to sell 3.5 million pure electric motorcycles in 2030, accounting for about 15% of global sales. Currently, Honda's electric motorcycle annual sales are 100,000 to 200,000 units, less than 1% of the overall. Coincidentally, the American motorcycle brand Harley successfully split its electric motorcycle department LiveWire, merged with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), a special purpose acquisition company called AEA-Bridges Impact, becoming the first publicly listed electric motorcycle company in the United States. After the merger, the company's enterprise value is $1.77 billion and LiveWire can obtain $545 million in cash.

In China, a relatively younger motorcycle listed company, Chunfeng Power , also announced the development strategy of "intelligence + electrification" in September. According to the plan, the motorcycle brand will launch 6 fuel two-wheelers and 4 electric two-wheelers in 2023, with the gas-electric ratio being close to 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 50% or 5

"With sustainable development becoming a mainstream issue in the world, for the motorcycle market, the electrification of products is an important trend in future development." A relevant person in charge of BMW Motorcycle told Titanium Media that BMW Motorcycle has set long-term strategic goals and that by 2030, the urban travel series will be electrified.

motorcycle electrification, a certain future is accelerating. In the midst of the change, the high production costs of electric motorcycles, the immature supply chain and the new competitive landscape will become important issues that every motorcycle manufacturer needs to solve.

0 billion US dollars new changes in the market

Electronic bicycle "new national standard" standard

For domestic consumers, the boundary between electric motorcycles and electric bicycles has been in a blur. It was not until the mandatory national standard (GB 17761-2018) (hereinafter referred to as the "New National Standard") was issued that there was a relatively clear division between the two.

According to the provisions of the new national standard, two-wheeled electric vehicles with a vehicle mass of less than 55kg and a speed of less than 25km/h are divided into electric bicycles, and those with a mass of more than 55kg and a speed of 25km/h-50km/h are divided into electric motorcycle . The speed above 50km/h is a truly electric motorcycle and a new track currently laid out by major motorcycle owners around the world.

According to Statista data, the global motorcycle market size reached US$124.387 billion in 2019. Due to the impact of the epidemic in 2020 and 2021, the industry size has declined but has also exceeded US$100 billion. In terms of

sales, the global motorcycle sales in 2019 were 52.9347 million units, the highest value in recent years. Since 2020, due to factors such as the epidemic, global motorcycle sales have decreased significantly, reaching about 47.19 million vehicles; in 2021, global motorcycle sales have maintained a downward trend, with sales of about 44 million vehicles.

In terms of the Chinese market, the total sales of China's motorcycles in 2021 were 20194,800 vehicles, including domestic sales and export sales. According to the power form, the total sales of fuel motorcycles in 2021 were 16.252 million, accounting for 80% of the total sales of motorcycles, and the total sales of electric motorcycles were 3.943 million, accounting for 20%.

It is worth noting that among the nearly 4 million electric motorcycle sales in the Chinese market, the number one ranks first is not the motorcycle owners, but the Yadi , which has electric bicycles and scooters as its main products. In the past year, Yadi has sold 934,400 electric motorcycles, accounting for 25% of the domestic electric motorcycle market share. However, compared with Yadi's total sales of 13.86 million vehicles in 2021, the sales of electric motorcycles account for less than 10%.

, among the top ten electric motorcycle brands in China, 80% are also electric bicycle manufacturers, and the market share of traditional motorcycle manufacturers is almost negligible. If we look at Yadi's average customer unit price of 1,992 yuan, the domestic mid-to-high-end electric motorcycle market can be said to be blank.

So, under such a market situation, coupled with the adjustment of the global energy structure, traditional fuel motorcycle manufacturers began to turn. Among them, the most powerful one is Honda, the world's largest motorcycle manufacturer, which decided to fully electrify it.

According to Honda's plan, the company's electric motorcycle sales will increase to 1 million by 2026. Kinz Nomura, the executive director of the two-wheeled business, said, "(DiMuSales) reach 1 million vehicles per year, and mass production effect begins to appear. Honda will expand sales in India, Southeast Asia and China at the same time."

is similar to Honda's plan, and the Japanese Yamaha engine has proposed a plan to make the proportion of electric motorcycles reach 90% by 2050. Weikang Maeda, the planning and investigation director of the investigation company Fourin, pointed out that "the environmental protection regulations of motorcycles in various countries are strict year by year. The cost of responding to regulations is very high, and the transformation to electric motorcycles is urgent."

is similar to new energy vehicles. After electrification, traditional fuel motorcycles will become a brand new track, which will greatly reduce the driving threshold of motorcycles.

A motorcycle enthusiast told Tidium Media that electric motorcycles can greatly reduce the problem of exhaust noise disturbing the public compared to fuel vehicles. At the same time, the motor force-generating characteristics increase the torque of the motorcycle, and further improve the speed increase and driving performance. The most important point is that for motorcycle beginners, after the oil separation coordination is cancelled, the gear shifting operation of electric motorcycles becomes easier, which is equivalent to a car changing from manual transmission to automatic transmission, which will be a trend for motorcycles.

In addition, electrification brings more possibilities for intelligent applications to motorcycles, such as NFC key unlocking, smarter car machines, including future applications of autonomous driving technology, etc.

For example, Honda also revealed this time that it will launch plans to launch "networked" motorcycles that can navigate charging stations and routes after 2024. Chunfeng Power launched a custom-made car system for Dianmo in July, which can be adapted to Apple iOS and Android systems, in-car navigation and Baidu maps are deeply customized, and has added ACC automatic cruise function to Dianmo product products.

According to the report "2021-2027 Global and China Electric Motorcycle Market Current Situation and Future Development Trends", the global electric motorcycle market size is expected to reach 69.3 billion yuan in 2026, with an annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5%. According to China Research and Prehua's forecast, by 2027, my country's motorcycle production will reach 22.5 million units, with an annual compound growth rate of about 5%, of which the proportion of electric motorcycles will increase from 20% to 30%. The average annual growth rate of electric motorcycles is predicted to be 15%, far higher than the overall market growth rate.

battery cost problem to be solved

Although mainstream motorcycle manufacturers such as Honda believe that electrification is a certain future, the current high production costs are a major problem facing all motorcycle owners, and it is also the main obstacle for electric motorcycles to move from playful products to Volkswagen commuting products.

"At present, the supply chain of electric bicycles is very mature, but the supply chain of electric motorcycles is very difficult. Electric motorcycles need independent research and development from 0 to 1, and the improvement and maturity of supporting supply chains also require long-term accumulation." Lai Minjie, CEO of Chunfeng Power, told Titanium Media that the product price of electric motorcycles with the same performance on the market will be 2-3 times that of fuel motorcycles.

According to Lai Minjie, from an industrial perspective, the manufacturing cost of electric motorcycles will take about 3-5 years to be the same as fuel motorcycles. The core reason for the high manufacturing costs of electric motorcycles is the increase in battery costs. Public data from

shows that since 2021, the price of core raw materials for power batteries has risen sharply, among which the price of lithium has increased tenfold from 500,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2021 to 500,000 yuan/ton at the current time, in more than a year. In addition, according to the data from Shanghai Ganglian on September 29, the average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 25,000 yuan/ton to 517,500 yuan/ton on the same day. Since 2022, the cumulative increase in the price of lithium carbonate has exceeded 80%.

"In 2020, the cost of 1kw/h lithium battery is about 600 yuan. Now, the cost of 1kw/h lithium battery has risen to 1,000 yuan. In the first half of this year alone, the price increase of power batteries has reached 60%." Niu Electric CEO O Li Yan told Titanium Media that the control over the rise and fall of battery costs is not in the motorcycle industry, but in the automobile industry.

In 2021, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 3.521 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, and the penetration rate rose to 13.4%. In 2022, new energy vehicle sales continued to soar. Data shows that domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 3.194 million units in the first seven months of this year, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times, and the penetration rate increased to 22.1%.

As the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, the cost of power batteries is also difficult to decrease in the short term. However, the overall cost of electric motorcycles will continue to be affected, making it difficult to level the cost gap with fuel motorcycles.

Li Yan gave an example, saying that only the reference is based on an electric motorcycle with a range of 75km and a maximum speed of 100km/h under Maverick . This product requires a battery of 3.7kw/h, and the battery cost is close to 4,000 yuan. If this car is improved by the "double hundred configuration" (100km and a maximum speed of 100km/h), the battery capacity will be close to 5kw/h, and the battery cost alone will reach 5,000 yuan.

" And a low-end fuel motorcycle with 150cc, the engine cost is about 2,500 yuan. "Li Yan said that from the perspective of powertrain alone, the cost of this electric motorcycle battery plus the motor will reach 6,000 yuan, which is more than twice that of fuel products. Based on this, the price of electric motorcycles is very different from that of fuel motorcycles, which leads to the current product attributes of electric motorcycles mainly focus on fun rather than commuting products.

However, Li Yan believes that the current price of lithium batteries is obviously inflated. If the time dimension is lengthened, as the battery cost decreases, electric motorcycles will eventually return to the tool attributes of commuting. "The turning point of the price of lithium batteries is the beginning of the increase in the penetration rate of domestic electric motorcycles, but this time point will not be too fast. "

domestic motorcycles are being double-sold by overseas manufacturers and startups

motorcycle electrification, roughly the same as the electrification path of the automotive industry. After the development of motors and gearboxes, Chinese auto companies quickly became the most successful sample of the global automotive industry's transformation into new energy. However, in the process of motorcycle electrification, the transformation pace of domestic manufacturers is not as radical as overseas companies.

"BMW Motorcycle began to electrify as early as 2011 and launched the concept car Concepte, which started our product planning and research and development in the field of electric vehicles. " BMW told Titanium Media that the launch of the new electric motorcycle BMW CE 04 this year is our latest response to market demand. In addition, BMW will have a new electric motorcycle every 18 to 24 months in the future.

Honda said that it will use "all-solid-state batteries" with the advantages of shortening charging time and other two-wheeled vehicles. In India, Honda will launch models that include hybrids and support biofuels after 2023.

According to Nikkei Chinese, in another large market for motorcycles, the government has introduced policies to support the popularization of electric vehicles, and local manufacturers have invested. Hero Electric is building a second factory in India, which will increase its annual production capacity to 1 million vehicles in the next three years. Compared with the clear timetable set by BMW and Honda in the electrification transformation, domestic motorcycle manufacturers have not clearly stated that they will fully transform into electrification, except for Chunfeng Power.

"Domestic manufacturers are not so willing to transform into electrification, mainly due to the lack of path dependence and insufficient power of electric motorcycle products. "

A motorcycle industry insider told Titanium Media App that domestic traditional motorcycle manufacturers have always had the idea of ​​"carpooling" - relying on the existing supply chain to make fuel products. However, mid-to-high-end electric motorcycles are a brand new supply chain, such as the 400v high-voltage platform that high-performance electric motorcycles need to be equipped with. No one in the motorcycle industry has done this. "Traditional manufacturers rely on their original basic experience to accumulate original experience and most of them live a good life, and are unwilling to invest too much to transform. ”

On the other hand, some domestic manufacturers such as Zongshen and Loncin have tried to deploy in the electric motorcycle field a long time ago.For example, in 2018, Loncin and Qiulong launched its first electric motorcycle product. However, compared with fuel motorcycles, the electric motorcycles launched by traditional manufacturers have no obvious advantages in product strength - they sell higher prices and lower performance. Therefore, domestic motorcycle electrification has never found a clear path.

However, for the domestic electric motorcycle market, when traditional manufacturers are not in a strong enough momentum to transform, startups without too much historical burden are emerging and trying to change the current situation.

"We believe that electrification will definitely be the future of the motorcycle industry." Horwin COO Liu Ping told Titanium Media App that the rise in battery costs is just a short-term fluctuation and will not affect the long-term trend of the industry. Moreover, the replacement speed of two-wheel electrification will definitely be faster than that of four-wheelers.

Horwin previously mainly sold electric motorcycle products in the European market, with cumulative sales of more than 30,000 units overseas, with annual revenue exceeding 100 million yuan, and has entered the top three sales rankings in the European market. In 2022, the founding team of Horwin decided to enter the domestic market and launched the first integrated smart chassis platform in the motorcycle industry in July this year.

Horwin CEO Zhou Wei once told Titanium Media App that traditional two-wheeled electric motorcycles are generally 70-100-meter production lines, and at least 40-50 workers are required to connect the motor, electronic control, and batteries through various wiring harnesses. However, after the three-electric system (battery, motor, electronic control) is integrated into one platform, the basic architecture of electric motorcycles will be completely changed. Compared with the electric motorcycles currently on the market, Horwin parts will be reduced by at least one third.

In addition to Horwin, many startups including Blue Shark Technology, NEON, etc. have emerged in China since this year. Among them, Shark Bay Technology also completed a USD A round of financing of tens of millions, led by Maison Capital.

Overall, although electric motorcycles are still in the early stages of development, the entrance has become more and more lively. Under the upcoming new competitive landscape, domestic traditional motorcycle manufacturers are already one position behind.

(This article was first released on Titanium Media App, author | Rao Xiangyu, editor | Zhong Yi)