Since ancient times, there has been a basic strategic theory, that is, the strong attack the weak and defend. If can use good fortifications in war, it is time to wait for work and adopt a defensive approach. The weak side can also withstand the attack of the powerful side and cause huge losses to the attacking side.
From this point of view, Ukraine followed this principle in the first stage of Russia's full-scale offensive from the end of February to the end of March and the second stage of Russia's key offensive from early April to early July, and achieved some results.
However, blindly defending also has disadvantages. Defense is a passive behavior. One side usually uses protracted battles to drag down the opponent. It is difficult to achieve its strategic goals by relying solely on defense in a short period of time.
At the end of August, the Ukrainian army launched an attack on the Russian army, which was still powerful in equipment. The war entered the third stage, which seemed a bit unreasonable, but also in common sense.
The biggest problem in Ukraine is the problem of time and people's patience. Ukraine cannot know whether the domestic and international environment allows them to fight a protracted war with Russia.
Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine can win and lose without a chance on the battlefield. It mainly depends on two points: one is that the Ukrainian people firmly believe that Ukraine will eventually win; the other is that internationally European and American countries continue to provide weapons and economic assistance to Ukraine.
Although Ukraine has won the hearts of the people at home and abroad, it has gained their continued support. However, people's hearts must also be inspired by the continuous good news on the Ukrainian side.
Because most people like to add icing on the cake, and few people continue to provide timely help. Moreover, judging from the current situation, the long-term delay of the war may not be beneficial to Ukraine. Western countries imposed economic sanctions on Russia . Now, it not only did not defeat Russia's economy, but instead caused the energy prices in Europe to soar by nearly 40%. As a result, Russia made a lot of money by selling energy, while Western countries experienced the highest inflation in more than 40 years, and even the economy was on the verge of recession.
Russia also uses Europe's dependence on its natural gas to fight a psychological war with Europe. Russia's Nord Stream 1 pipeline for German gas pipeline will be repaired and closed, making it impossible for Germany and Europe to store natural gas this winter. As autumn is coming, European countries are discussing whether Europe will spend this winter in the dark and cold.
Moreover, the Russian ruble not only did not depreciate as expected, but became the strongest currency in the world. While the US dollar is rising sharply against currencies of all countries, rubles is still rising sharply against the US dollar. The strong ruble has caused great trouble to the Russian government. International crude oil is denominated in US dollars, but the Russian government's tax revenue is to be converted into rubles. The ruble has risen sharply against the US dollar, and the tax revenue of oil and natural gas denominated in US dollars has been greatly reduced, causing the Russian government's fiscal revenue calculated in rubles to shrink. So, Russia has had to find a way to devalue the ruble recently.
media reported on September 2 that the Russian government and the central bank of plan to purchase US$70 billion worth of Chinese yuan and other currencies of Russia-friendly countries this year to slow down the trend of the continuous appreciation of the ruble.
High energy prices have caused dissatisfaction among the people of some European and American countries. If Ukraine cannot give the people the hope of eventually defeating Russia.
So, this practice of allowing European and American countries to write checks to Ukraine without limit, I don’t know how long it will take for people from Europe and the United States to support such government behavior in the cold winter this year.
At this moment, Ukraine saw the Russian army's key attack in April, which had left the Russian army exhausted and was unable to launch the next large-scale attack. The Russian army had to recruit soldiers everywhere in Russia to save new combat power.
In July and August of the strategic stalemate phase, the Ukrainian military continued to demand weapons support from Western countries and launch precise and powerful strikes. They used some advanced weapons provided by the West from a long range, including the precise rocket Himas system provided by the United States, which destroyed a large number of arsenal supply lines and road bridges in the rear of the Russian army. The Ukrainian military also developed guerrilla forces against Russian occupied in the southern areas occupied by the Russian army, especially the guerrillas in Khlsong City. They have carried out a series of guerrilla attacks. The Ukrainian military intends to undermine Russia's control in the region and weaken the morale of the Russian army.
With the arrival of autumn in September, the cold winter in Ukraine is approaching, and winter is very unfavorable to the attacking side. The Ukrainian military knows that in order to win the initiative in the battlefield and the hearts of the people in the West, there is no time to wait any longer and there is no choice.
Ukrainian military gritted its teeth and started this round of counterattack on August 29 when conditions were not mature. Of course, this is also a carefully planned counterattack.
Sure enough, the Kharkov victory was won in early September, which greatly encouraged the Western society and the people, and gave a ray of warm sunshine to spend this year's cold winter.
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