The US August CPI data, which was higher than expected yesterday, broke the remarks that inflation reached its peak. The August PPI data released today fell year-on-year, but the core PPI is still higher than expected.
On Wednesday, September 14, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. PPI (producer price index) in August increased by 8.7% year-on-year, lower than expected 8.8% and 9.8% last month; a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, the same as expected, and higher than last month's -0.4%.
Excluding food and energy with high fluctuations, the core PPI of the United States rose 7.3% year-on-year in August, down 7.6% from the previous value, but higher than the expected 7.1%; the core PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the expected and 0.3% from the previous value.
gasoline prices fell by 12.7%, and service costs rose
energy costs fell as the main reason for the decline in PPI in August.
is similar to the CPI data structure. The US PPI in August also showed that commodity costs are declining, while service costs are rising.
commodity prices fell 1.2%, with more than three-quarters of which can be attributed to the continued decline in gasoline prices, with the index falling 16.2%. Food prices remain the same as last month. The commodity cost index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% for the second consecutive month.
Although gasoline prices fell in August, manufacturers face rising costs for service prices and some commodities such as construction equipment and beverages.
service price rose 0.4% in August, the biggest increase in three months, with 40% of the increase due to higher profits from fuel retailers, which rose 14.2%.
Data released by the American Institute of Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global both show that the price pressure on producers has eased. The ISM raw material price index fell to a two-year low in August.
8, the cost of processed products for intermediate demand fell for the second consecutive month. Even excluding food and energy, the index fell by 0.8%.
Nevertheless, a potential railway strike has the potential to damage supply chains again. A strike that may begin later this week will disrupt the transport of a wide range of goods, from food, wood to coal.
, excluding the producer price index of food, energy and trade services (excluding the most volatile part of the index), rose 0.2% from last month and 5.6% from August last year, indicating that there is continued inflation in production channels.
The Federal Reserve raises interest rates this month: 75bp or 100bp?
Before the release of PPI data, the US CPI data in August, which had an increase of more than expected, was released, and the market's fantasy of the Federal Reserve's non-violent interest rate hike was completely shattered. Overnight, the focus of market discussions was upgraded from "50 or 75 basis points" to "75 or 100 basis points".
Currently, the Fed swap market is expected to raise interest rates by 100 basis points next week as high as 47%. The market's latest pricing ends for this round of Fed interest rate hikes is - 4.28%, in April next year.
Some media said that given that inflation will be at a high level for some time, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points at next week's interest rate meeting. If implemented, this will be the third consecutive historically significant interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
After the release of US PPI data, the US dollar index rose slightly and is currently at 109.6.
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