On Tuesday, October 11, the New York Fed released data from the September consumer expectations survey. The
report shows that in September, consumer inflation expectations for the next year fell sharply, from 5.7% to 5.4%, the lowest level since September 2021. However, in September this year, consumer inflation expectations for the next three years rose slightly from 2.8% to 2.9%.
The continued decline in consumer inflation expectations will be welcomed by Feder , especially the long-term expectations three years later are still not far from the long-term average inflation level, but respondents' expectations for growth in household spending have seen a more pessimistic reading, which dropped sharply, from 7.8% in August to 6.0%, the lowest reading since January this year, while setting the largest single-month decline since the data was launched in June 2013.
Respondents' perceptions of the current financial situation of families are roughly unchanged compared to one year ago, but the proportion of families who currently have worse conditions than they were a year ago is still close to an all-time high. Respondents' expectations for the next year of family financial status also remained roughly unchanged in September.
Another sign that the slowdown in the U.S. economy is experiencing a consumer level is that the median expected housing price growth has dropped from 2.09% to 2.0%, the lowest level since June 2020; according to the data of the New York Fed, the expectation of a decline in housing prices is "most obvious among respondents with college education and annual income of more than $100,000, but it is widely distributed throughout the United States."
In other fields, respondents' expectations for price changes in the coming year show:
's price expectations for oil prices rose by 0.4 percentage points to 0.5%;
's price expectations for food prices rose by 1 percentage point to 6.9%;
's price expectations for university education rose by 0.6 percentage points to 9%;
's price expectations for medical expenses fell by 0.1 percentage point to 9.2%;
's price expectations for housing rental prices rose by 0.1 percentage point to 9.7%.
The survey results on the labor market in this report show that in September, the median expected corporate profit growth for the next year fell by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%; among them, the most pessimistic respondents were concentrated in people over 60 years old and those with high school education or below. Among the respondents, the proportion of the unemployment rate that believes the U.S. will rise in a year has dropped by 0.9 percentage points to 39.1%.
The average perceived probability of losing a job in the next 12 months increased by 0.5 percentage points to 11.6%; the average probability of voluntary resignation in the next 12 months increased by 0.9 percentage points to 19.4%. The rise in these two figures is most obvious among those over the age of 60.
If you are unemployed, the average perceived probability of finding a job increases by 0.1 percentage point to 57.3%.
From the perspective of household financial situation, the median expected growth of household income in September remained at a high of 3.5%.
Respondents' perceptions about getting loans remained broadly unchanged compared to a year ago, but the proportion of households reporting harder to get credit than a year ago is still at a high level. In contrast, expectations for future loan availability have improved, with the proportion of respondents who are expected to be more difficult to obtain credit in the coming year.
The average probability of not being able to repay the minimum debt remained unchanged in the next three months at 12.2%; the median expected tax changes (at current income levels) in the coming year also remained at 4.5%.
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