Tonight, Central Bank suddenly released September financial data.
This is very rare.
According to convention, it is usually announced at 4 pm, but it is announced in the evening today.
According to the data, M0 is slightly lower than expected, M1 and M2 meet expectations, and the new loans and social financing are significantly higher than expected.
Specifically, housing loans and enterprise (institutional) institutions loans have increased significantly compared with July and August.
This is mainly due to the sharp reduction of the LPR interest rate in August, the 1-year LPR interest rate was lowered by 5 basis points, and the 5-year and above was lowered by 15 basis points.
This is similar to May and June.
In May, after the LPR interest rate was lowered, the financial data in June also rebounded sharply.
But in July, financial data showed a sharp decline again, and the effect of interest rate cuts faded rapidly. The current situation of
may be similar to the last time. The effect of
8 interest rate cuts may not last too long, and the financial data for October are probably not good either.
Originally, it had the impact of one week off during the National Day holiday.
plus, the epidemic has recurred again, which has had a new impact on the economy.
Latest news tonight:
IMF lowered the global GDP expectations in 2023, warning that "the worst is still to come." IMF will maintain global economic growth expectations at 3.2% this year, and will lower it by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% next year. The IMF lowered its GDP expectations for 2023 in euros, the UK and Latin America. The IMF lowered its U.S. economic growth forecast for 2022 by 0.7 percentage points and maintained its unchanged in 2023.
According to the current situation, the risk of a global economic recession is getting higher and higher.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is still fermenting, constantly stimulating global funds to influx into the United States.
This Thursday night, the United States will release September CPI data.
According to recent practice, every time the data is released, inflation expectations will exceed expectations, and then The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is strengthened once, and the financial market will fall a little.
At present, the expectation of hike rate in November is 75 basis points. If it is strengthened, will it be possible to directly add 100 basis points? If
really adds 100 basis points, it will be a bloody storm in the global financial market...
As the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike balance sheet reduction is gradually realized, and the global economy has begun to decline.
chip industry is a typical example.
Last year, everyone was "grabbing the chips" and the prices of some chips rose madly.
Now, there is an oversupply of chips, and even TSMC is no exception.
Today, TSMC's stock price plunged , falling 8.33%.
fuse is market rumor: the capacity utilization rate of some TSMC processes has dropped to 90%.
Market insiders predict that TSMC's capacity utilization rate will decline significantly in the first quarter of 2023.
In the past, as the leader of chip foundry, TSMC had to queue up. Now, even TSMC is not good enough, which shows how serious the chip industry is to "cut orders".
How can those low-end chip factories with little technical content survive?
So, there is a reason why A shares chip stocks have been smashed so hard in the past two days. Not just because of sanctions...
Faced with this situation, the country now has one word: endure!
The policy level is to focus on the bottom line, and to survive until the crisis breaks out and the US dollar cycle reversal.
If you raise interest rates by 100 basis points in November, it is to exchange space for time.
The more you add, the earlier the node with cycle inversion comes...
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