The United States released a job data, but unexpectedly it made Japan's exchange rate fall below 145.
9 September When the yen fell below 145, the Bank of Japan had to interfere with the exchange rate. This time it fell below 145 again. What will the Bank of Japan do?
01, breaking the first 145
Since this year, the dollar index has been rising, and the yen exchange rate has been falling, and so far has fallen by 26.32%.
From the daily K-line chart of the US dollar against the yen, we can see that the decline of the yen mainly started in March, which corresponds to the first Fed interest rate hike in March.
The exchange rate of the yen rebounded in May, but it continued to fall in June. Then, starting from June, the yen entered a decline again, until another wave of rebound occurred in late July.
But by August, when the market began to predict the Fed's sharp interest rate hike in September, the yen began another fierce decline. This time the decline finally came when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in mid-September, and the yen fell below the important mark of 145 in one fell swoop.
02, breaking 145
Although the Bank of Japan has begun to take some actions before this, it has not substantially interfered in the foreign exchange market. Until it fell below 145, the Bank of Japan had to enter directly to intervene in the foreign exchange market, which was the first time since the Asian financial crisis in 1998.
Bank of Japan forced the exchange rate to be below 145 by buying the yen and selling the US dollar. this time, the cumulative use of up to 3.6 trillion yen.
A few days ago, the US dollar index returned to 110 from 114, and many non-US currencies rose to varying degrees.
But the yen performed strangely. During this period, there was no exchange rate increase, but instead slowly fell again and approached the 145 mark again.
Because the U.S. employment data is expected to be relatively good, the U.S. dollar index strengthened again starting on Wednesday, and the final employment data was released on Friday, which was indeed better than market expectations. The US dollar index rose to 112.77 again.
. At the same time as the U.S. employment data was released, Japan's exchange rate also fell, falling below 145 again.
03, whether to keep the exchange rate
Why is the depreciation of the yen exceeding 145 is an important threshold?
In 1998, the US dollar against the Japanese yen once reached 147, but the worst exchange rate of the yen in the past 20 years has not exceeded 140.
Some experts have calculated that if the yen falls below the 145 mark, it will greatly increase the difficulty of the Bank of Japan to maintain Japan's Treasury bond yields.
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