Taiwan's economic light has been a six-game green light since August this year, but it is already on the verge of turning lights. Among them, the manufacturing, construction and service industries have been declining for eight consecutive months, especially the decline in manufacturing, which is the lowest since June 2020. In an interview, a well-known Taiwanese economist Lin Zujia said that the only good news for Taiwan's prosperity is to unblock the "border" in mid-October. Through the warming of tourist restaurants or retaliatory consumption, it is expected to stimulate the prosperity, but it is strange that mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau have not been opened. If the lockdown is unblocked for economic purposes, it should be opened.
"Taiwan Development Committee" recently announced the economic lights for August, which were six consecutive green lights, and the score fell at 23 points, a point reduction from the previous month, and a point reduction was the yellow and blue lights, which was already on the verge of turning the lights. In addition, the leading economic indicators have fallen for ten consecutive months, and the downward risks of the global economy have deepened, and the challenges in the fourth quarter will be greater.
was once the "Chairman of the Taiwan Development Committee", and is currently a professor in the Department of Economics of the Taiwan University of Political Science and Technology and director of the Kuomintang Mainland Affairs Department, pointed out in an interview with the Hong Kong "China Review News Agency" that the subsequent economic prosperity and the current several detailed indicators do not look very good. This includes the decline in stock prices and poor export orders. He believes that the chance of becoming a yellow light in September is very high. Coupled with the bad international economy and the continued interest rate hike of the United States, it will cause the international economy to go further. If the trade volume shrinks, it will seriously affect the fourth quarter that should have been the most prosperous exports in Taiwan.
Lin Zujia mentioned that in fact, the outside world predicted that exports in Taiwan would be very miserable in August, but the results were good because Apple launched iPhone14, and this type of order alone brought the export back. It should have been negative, but it became positive and second. If this order effect disappears in September, Taiwan's exports will fall. Therefore, in the fourth season, the chances of Taiwan's prosperity turning into yellow and blue lights are very high.
Lin Zujia emphasized that when the international economy goes down, exports from Taiwan will definitely fall. Taiwan's export performance in the past two years was very good, mainly because there was a good electronics industry. However, it seems that everyone has too many electronic products in stock, so the electronics industry began to shrink. If the electronics industry exports fall, other industries will follow, and Taiwan's exports will be very miserable. Another big reason is that inflation . The outside world estimates that the inflation rate will be around 6% in the first quarter of next year, so the world expects that the economic growth rate next year will be lower than this year, which will greatly affect the export orders in Taiwan.
Lin Zujia said that the only good news for Taiwan's prosperity is that the "border" will be unblocked in mid-October, and tourists coming in or people going out to play will stimulate consumption within Taiwan. There will be some benefits, but it is still impossible to predict how big the stimulus effect can be. We need to see the exact degree of openness at the time.
Lin Zujia specifically mentioned that the strangest thing is that the scope of unblocking does not include mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau. Even if there is no need to talk about mainland tourists, there are many people coming to Taiwan in Hong Kong and Macao, so if people from mainland China and Hong Kong and Macao are not open, the positive effect of the unblocking will be greatly reduced. Because for example, there are only four cross-strait waypoints left now, and they are still not open this time. In addition to the inability of Taiwanese businessmen in mainland China to move, the recovery of flights, the increase in revenue of airlines, and the airports can do more business, etc., have become much smaller.
Lin Zujia emphasized that if economic factors are really taken into account, rather than political purposes, the relevant ban should be opened quickly, including restoring the "small three links" and so on, which will have more positive benefits to the economy. The DPP authorities should actually consider opening up in full and taking relevant supporting measures, because after all, the epidemic has been three years, and the people have been greatly affected by the economy. Only when the full opening up as soon as possible will it have a positive effect on economic stimulus. (Source: China Review News Agency)
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