However, in late August, the "unbeaten golden body" of the strong US dollar was broken, and the euro and gold counterattacked rapidly. Looking ahead, will the US Index return in September? Will there be a differentiated independent market? This article will combine many hot events in September to give you a brief introduction.
United States: Non-agricultural data, good or bad, the Fed's interest rate hike in September has been for sure
In the first week of this month, it will be the first to usher in the US non-agricultural data in August. The last time, due to the bankruptcy of Toys R Us and the seasonal factors of American schools in summer vacation, the number of new non-agricultural jobs was reduced, resulting in only 157,000 new non-agricultural jobs. But this did not dispel market expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike in September. (For details, please click to read "Multi-institutional comprehensive analysis: Although non-agricultural in July is mixed, it does not hinder the rate hike in September")
The United States' non-agricultural data in June showed that the unemployment rate rebounded from 3.8% to 4%. Although this means that the continued decline of the unemployment rate unexpectedly showed a turning point, the market interpreted it as: the good labor market environment has led to more people voluntary unemployment and higher rewards, and has also attracted more new forces to find employment. Overall, the U.S. economy is also reflected in its strongest economy.
Although the U.S. labor market has long achieved the goal of full employment, the data above 230,000 and below 160,000 still have more or less impact. In addition, this time, whether the hourly wage growth rate can rise? The current market expects the wage growth rate of to be 2.8%, which is expected to break the stagflation at 2.7% in the past three months.
Because the current economic state of the United States can be vividly compared to inflation eating wages. The rising wage growth rate can effectively improve residents' consumption capacity, further benefit data such as PCE price index, and also change the tax reform model of unsustainable leverage to achieve real wealth in the people.
Even if the wage growth rate cannot meet expectations, there will be short-term fluctuations, but it is basically impossible to shake the Fed's interest rate hike, which may affect the wording of the meeting statement, the economic, inflation expectations and the distribution of the interest rate hike dot chart.
(the dot map of interest rate hikes announced by the United States in June)
Considering that the bilateral agreement reached by the United States and Mexico has not been officially implemented, even if Canada cannot join, the benefits of the bilateral agreement indirectly providing jobs and production lines to the United States and other benefits are still difficult to reflect.
So the turning point of the US economy may be delayed. A strong US economy is the most favorable guarantee for supporting a strong dollar and a gradual interest rate hike.
North America: The United States, Canada and Mexico continue to interpret
In August, the United States and Mexico reached a preliminary bilateral agreement. The agreement mainly includes three aspects. First, the proportion of automobile parts manufactured in North America (NAFTA) has increased from the current 62.5% to 75%.
Secondly, 40%-45% of the components in automobile manufacturing must be produced by workers with an hourly salary of more than US$16. This combination of
has greatly curbed the natural cost competitive advantage caused by Mexico's cheap labor and prevented American car companies from transferring their labor positions to Mexico.
. In terms of sunset terms, the United States made a little concession. was originally scheduled to be renewed every 5 years, otherwise it would take effect automatically. Now the deadline will be extended to 16 years, but it still needs to be evaluated and evaluated after 6 years to decide whether to continue running.
Since April 2017, Trump has bluntly stated that the original agreement is too bad and that the terms will be revised. The essence of this US-Mexico negotiation is that the United States sacrificed a small part of its interests in exchange for most of its benefits, and it can also be said to be a comprehensive victory for the president.
Recall that earlier, in order to ban the entry of illegal immigration in Mexico, Trump even wanted to build a border wall, while Canada has been trying to win over Mexico, insisting that it is Mexico's strong backing. But in the end, Mexico still abandoned its marriage with Canada, and now the ball is back here in Canada.
8 August 31 was originally the deadline for passing NAFTA within the year, because it will take three months to reach the agreement to be approved by the Congress in , and this is also the reason why Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland ended his European trip early.
but The United States forces Canada to sign an agreement exactly as it wants, can Canadian Prime Minister Trodo clearly stated that he will only sign an agreement that is beneficial to Canada. Trudeau reiterated that his administration would not succumb to the US demands on the dairy system, which led to the three parties' NAFTA being temporarily shelved.
This Wednesday (September 5), the United States and Canada will restart negotiations. It is expected that the two countries will still fight over the import of milk products, the collection of steel and aluminum tariffs, and the trade dispute mechanism issues, which are also the focus of attention in September.
In terms of milk products, the United States hopes that Canada will cancel 300% dairy tariffs and further open up the opening of farmers' markets. Canada does not want to easily destroy the supply chain mechanism established in China.
After re-signing the NAFTA agreement, the US's handling of the additional steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) tariffs on June 1 are also worthy of attention.
Finally, the two countries also had differences on the issue of the trade dispute handling mechanism. Canada hopes to establish a dispute handling team to achieve the goal of preventing the United States from adopting a stylist and anti-subsidy strategy in the future. In other words, it restricts the infiltration of domestically-made American manufacturing, while the United States hopes to completely or partially cancel the establishment of this organization (at least Mexico has compromised).
The progress of the NAFTA agreement in the next September is quite critical, because this may indirectly affect whether Canada will raise interest rates for the third time in October. If uncertainties dissipate, it will help increase interest rate hike expectations. (The US rate hike in September is basically a surefire)
so boldly predicts that Canada will not easily make any concessions to the United States, because dairy farmers are concentrated in Ontario and Quebec, and if they are not careful, they may shake the political status of the leader.
The key is to see if Trump can let go. After all, he always has a loud thunder and a small rainfall. He just wants to gain bargaining chips for negotiations.
If the two sides can reach a consensus, the Canadian dollar may emerge from an independent upward trend, and even if there is no progress, there may only be a short-term impact. Because must realize that it is a matter of time sooner or later that the United States and neighboring Canada sign an agreement, it will be beneficial to the Canadian dollar before it is expected to be reached.
EU: U.S. and European automobile tariffs may hit the European economy
☆The next target of the United States’ precise strike is the EU and Japan☆
After clarifying the relationship with its neighbors, the scope of the next strike target will be clearer and more directed. What the United States really wants to do is to target the artillery fire at the EU and Japan’s automobile tariffs.
The number of automobile imports in the United States is around 180 billion US dollars per year. Except for neighboring countries Mexico, Canada and South Korea, which have re-signed the agreement, the rest are the EU and Japan.
☆EU's economic pillar is facing the risk of collapse, beware of other countries' imitation☆
In July, the EU had already imposed taxes on 2.8 billion euros (3.2 billion US dollars) of goods imported to the United States to fight back against the US steel and aluminum tariffs. The United States was going to continue to impose automobile tariffs, but European Commission President Juncker went to the United States in July and promised to expand the trade framework for U.S. agricultural products and energy imports (no rigid regulations on amounts and deadlines).
At that time, the EU also formulated a list of taxes on coal, medicine and chemical products in the United States. Whether Trump was interested or was tired of dealing with multi-line wars at the time, the two sides did maintain a gentleman agreement for some time.
However, we should realize that the essential contradiction between the EU and the United States has not been resolved. What Trump wants is not only as simple as more exported goods.
The EU has proposed to exempt all industrial commodity taxes, including automobile tariffs, but was rejected by the United States.In the next September, it can be estimated that the US tariffs on 25% of European imported cars will be mentioned, and the European economic pillar Germany's annual export share of US cars to US is about US$20 billion, which is a significant part of the economic pressure.
thinks more deeply. Germany's automobile exports account for 20% of the world. Once the threshold for to enter the US market is too high, either find alternative exporters. If other countries raise tariffs in order to protect the competitiveness of local car companies, then the EU may have a harder life.
This is a precedent. After the United States raised tariffs on steel and aluminum, Canada also increased the tax burden ratio of these products to prevent excessive dumping.
☆Italy may fly out of economic collapse Black swan☆
At the critical moment when the German economy may suffer a major blow, the black swan of Italy must not be ignored. The author once mentioned that Italy's current government debt has reached 2.5 trillion euros, and the country's debt-to-GDP ratio has expanded to 6.2%, more than twice the passing line of EU member states, becoming the fourth highest debt-rate country in the world after Greece.
On this basis, the newly appointed Prime Minister Conte also hopes to increase fiscal expenditure by 67 billion euros each year and implement welfare measures such as the minimum wage guarantee system.
is expected to reach an agreement within September, publish a budget outline, and provide the EU Budget Commission with a draft in October, which is contrary to Germany and France's budget framework and sustainable development concept.
Emerging Markets: Turkey , Iran is still in a quagmire
The problem of emerging markets is still the focus of continuous attention. At the time of the US-Turkey conflict, the German government has expressed its consideration of emergency financial assistance to Turkey and discussed some rescue options. Including joint European bailouts (similar to the bailouts adopted during the euro zone debt crisis), loans for specific projects provided by development banks controlled by the national government, and bilateral bailouts.
But in the end, whether it is to save or not, it is a mess. Sacrifice the country's economy so much, and Turkey's high inflation and economic development model that rely on borrowing foreign debt to quench thirst have not changed. This money can basically not be obtained in the short term.
If you don’t save the local residents or refugees will flock to developed countries such as Nordics, which may cause a second conflict between the CSU and the CDU within Germany.
Regarding the Iran issue, it is also a true portrayal of the unbalanced economic interests of the United States and the European Union in the Middle East.
Iran's economy is currently bleak, and many executives are at risk of being impeached, but Rouhani is unlikely to step down because he is a moderate party figure. Once he steps down, it means a complete break between Iran and the Western powers. This is not what the supreme spiritual leader Khamenei wants to see. He still wants to keep the oil exports and try not to use the last resort to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
After the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement on August 6, it officially imposed the first phase of sanctions on Iran, mainly targeting Iran's financial and monetary fields, but considering the high oil prices, it has not yet taken action on the oil and energy fields. Since the deadline for is set on November 4 (November 6 is the midterm election), it may be difficult to make further progress in September, and it will be more of a war of words, or negotiations between Iran and other countries to weaken the impact brought by the United States.
Japan: US-Japan automobile tariffs and Japan Liberal Democratic Party elections are worth paying attention to
On July 17, Japan and the EU signed a landmark agreement, which will cancel almost all relevant taxes on products traded by both sides, including the cancellation of 10% import tariffs on Japanese automobiles within eight years, and build the world's largest trade open zone. Trump's extreme pressure has accelerated the promotion of the European and Japanese alliance, which the US president has never expected.
: In the US's $180 billion share of imported cars, Japan accounts for more than $40 billion. Trump is likely to use the US Department of Commerce to initiate an investigation into whether Japanese automobile and auto parts imports pose national security risks to the United States. is expected to directly communicate with the leaders of both sides in September. Whether Japan can be successfully exempted from Iran's oil import rights is also worth paying attention to whether Japan can successfully obtain Iran's oil import rights.
Even if Japan surrenders to the United States, should realize that the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) was reached after five years of long-distance running, so the focus of the US-Japan negotiations may be limited to the issue of automobile tariffs.
th September will also pay attention to the election issues of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. According to Japanese media reports, the election of the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan will be counted on September 20. The presidential election decided the winner through a total of 810 votes by votes from members of Congress (405 votes) and local votes (405 votes).
According to Kyodo News recently investigated the support tendency of the party's 405 MPs who have voting rights. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe received 336 support, accounting for about 80% of the overall; former Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba (the biggest opponent) had 46 supporters. Compared with the last survey in late July, Abe and Ishiba each increased by more than 20 people.
In other words, if Ishiba wants to achieve a reversal, he needs to obtain more than 80% of local votes (Party members and party friends votes). Abe is likely to be elected for the third consecutive time.
Although the scandal of the academy and land price gate incident this year have a slight impact on Abe's administration, most of the information from foreign media are still the actual achievements of his long-term rule. Some fence-bearers also target future cabinet restructuring and party personnel arrangements, hoping to take advantage of the winner's east wind.
If Japan's political situation is stable, Abenomic's three arrows of bold monetary policy, mobile fiscal policy, and reformed economic structure will still operate in the original model.
Japan's interest rate may still remain at a low level for a long time, but Japanese banks will not buy as frequently as the stock and bond markets, and will also invisibly reduce the number of buying. The best proof is that the 10-year bond yield is allowed to fluctuate in the range of double the plus or minus 0.1% on the July Daily profit rate resolution, and the so-called 80 trillion bond purchases of Japanese silver did not meet the standard in the previous fiscal year.
The overall assessment of the yen is still in a steady state, which is mainly because the Japanese bank's policy is too loose, and any hawkish remarks or actions will be amplified.
China: Sino-US trade negotiations may affect global market trends
In mid-June, the United States announced a list of taxes on China totaling US$50 billion. On July 6, the United States imposed a 25% tax on 34 billion goods imported to the United States. On August 22, Wang Shouwen, deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, was invited to visit the United States for negotiations, but did not usher in substantial breakthroughs. On August 23, the United States imposed taxes on the remaining $16 billion in China's goods.
In the week of August 20, the United States held a one-week hearing on the 200 billion US dollar product tax increase, and it ended on the 27th local time.
Although many companies say that China's products are irreplaceable, especially since the scope of this tax has been expanded to daily necessities such as clothing and baby products, Trump is still very likely to insist on his own.
The U.S. government has asked U.S. companies and the public to express their opinions on the next round of potential tariffs by September 6. Once this time point passes, Trump is very likely to impose a 10%-25% tariff on these $200 billion goods in stages.
This marks a comprehensive escalation of confrontation between the two major economies. The tax range of goods supplied by US$250 billion is almost half of the total trade volume of China-US, and it is also the largest scale of US foreign trade policy to date.
If these things really happen in September, it will undoubtedly drag down the prices of commodities, because the construction of trade barriers will reduce commodity demand, and commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar will be greatly impacted.
Gold will not have a better life. This round of gold will expose more commodity attributes and is not a safe-haven asset favored by funds. The best evidence is that the decline of gold over US$20 in the day is around the time when Sino-US relations deteriorate.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-