Pre-market market trends
1. On October 5 (Wednesday) U.S. stock Before the market, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.87%, S&P 500 index futures fell 0.86%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.85%.
2. As of press time, Germany DAX index fell 0.86%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 1.01%, France CAC40 index fell 0.69%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.74%.
3. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 0.43% to US$86.15 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 0.34% to $91.49 per barrel.
Market News
Do not over-infer the "dove signal"! Analysts warn Feder is far from the time to turn. Although more and more people are speculating that the tightening of monetary policy by major global central banks will weaken after RBA raises interest rates to half of expectations, some strategists believe that the recent decline of the US dollar may not last long. Strategists at banks such as Imperial Canadian Commercial Bank and Brown Brothers Harriman Bank said the recent decline in the dollar was partly due to investors' profit settlement after the dollar index rose to a record high last week, but the trend will not continue. They do not expect the Fed and other central banks to follow the rupee’s dovish moves. "We expect the dollar to take profits and take off," said Bipan Rai, head of foreign exchange strategy at the Canadian Imperial Commercial Bank. "Given the lack of credible inflation evidence, it is too early to say that interest rates have peaked." In addition, analysts pointed out that it would only make sense to discuss the Fed's policy shift in a weak non-farm employment data and CPI data. The non-farm employment report to be released on Friday and the U.S. CPI data for next week will be a key indicator of all speculation about the Fed's policy turn.
UAE has joined the queue to support a significant production cut despite the US blockade. , led by , Saudi and Russia, is considering the largest production cut since 2020, at 2 million barrels per day, hoping to "defend" oil prices. The UAE may support a major production cut proposal made by Saudi Arabia and Russia at the OPEC + meeting on Wednesday, a blow to the U.S. efforts to stop a deal to cut production, two people familiar with the matter said. Although the United States and other Western powers tried at the last minute to convince the UAE to oppose the deal, the UAE agreed. “While they respect the opinions (US) they need to do what is most in their interests,” a source said. The organization is expected to announce plans to cut production by 1 million to 2 million barrels per day at the meeting.
British Prime Minister Tras spoke out to support the tax cut plan: priority will be given to reducing the tax burden on the UK. Tras said in his speech on Wednesday that the UK is facing a "storm". She said the UK's economic growth was not strong enough and would give priority to reducing the UK's tax burden and believed that "tax cuts are both morally and economically correct". She said the UK needs to be internationally competitive in taxation and emphasized that pursuing economic growth is “difficult but necessary”. In addition, she also pointed out that monetary policy interest rates were independently decided by the Bank of England and said that supervision of British businesses would be simplified. Affected by this news, as of press time, the pound sterling exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.90% during the day and is now at 1.1370.
Euro zone September comprehensive PMI final value fell to a 20-month low, and the economic outlook was bleak. data shows that the final value of the comprehensive PMI in September of the euro zone was 48.1, expected to be 48.2, and the previous value was 48.2, falling to a 20-month low. The index is seen as a good measure of economic health, and below 50 indicates economic contraction. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global market intelligence, said: "PMI shows that corporate activity has plummeted, further breaking any hope of euro zone avoiding recession. The survey not only shows that the economic downturn has intensified, but the inflation situation has also deteriorated, meaning policymakers are facing an increasing risk of hard landing as they seek to curb the acceleration of inflation."It is reported that rising prices, especially rising energy costs, and bleak economic outlook, have kept consumers on alert. The final value of the service industry in the euro zone in September was 48.8, expected to be 48.9, and the previous value was 48.9, the lowest level since February 2021.
WTO expect global trade growth to slow sharply in 2023. On October 5, local time, World Trade Organization released a trade forecast update report on Geneva . Due to the pressure on the global economy by multiple shocks, the WTO expect global trade to lose momentum in the second half of 2022 and remain sluggish in 2023. WTO expects global commodity trade volume to grow by 3.5% in 2022, slightly higher than 4 The monthly forecast is 3.0%, but the growth rate in 2023 is expected to be only 1%, far lower than the previous estimate of 3.4%. Global GDP is expected to grow by 2.8% and 2.3% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The WTO pointed out that previous trade expectations for 2023 seemed too optimistic, because energy prices are soaring, inflation is wider, and there is no sign of weakening of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Due to the shift in monetary policy in developed economies and the unpredictability of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the current forecast also has a high degree of uncertainty.
stocks news
In order to achieve full autonomous driving capabilities, Tesla (TSLA.US) removes Model as early as the end of the year 3/Y ultrasonic sensor . On October 4, local time, Tesla announced that it will no longer use ultrasonic sensors (USS) in the autonomous driving sensor suite, and will use a camera-only "Tesla Vision" system. Tesla will remove ultrasonic sensors, Model S and Model Y in the next few months X will be removed from 2023. It is understood that ultrasonic sensors are mainly used for short-distance object detection and are used in scenarios such as automatic parking and collision warning.
Vale (VALE.US) seeks to sell stakes in the metals business. It is reported that Vale is discussing selling a $2.5 billion minority stake in its metals business as the company seeks to increase its copper and nickel production to meet the demand for energy transition. People familiar with the matter said the first round of bids will take place in early November, with Japanese trading companies, Middle East 's sovereign wealth funds and auto companies all studying the asset, and auto companies are particularly looking to obtain the key metals needed for electric vehicles. Vale has been working to transform its base metals division, which has sluggish production last year, but is expected to rebound this year. It is reported that the company is negotiating to sell 10%-15% of the department's shares, and its business valuation may be about US$25 billion. It is reported that the company has hired Goldman Sachs to advise on any potential transactions.
Due to slowing online sales, Amazon (AMZN.US) freezes retail business recruitment. According to people familiar with the matter, Amazon will suspend recruitment for retail business until the end of this year. The people familiar with the matter said the recruitment freeze targets corporate positions in Amazon's global store division, rather than the network of warehouses where most employees work. This is the latest sign that the world's largest e-commerce company has adjusted its workforce to accommodate slowdowns in online sales, but the latest move will not affect the company's lucrative cloud services division.
natural gas business is strong, and ExxonMobil (XOM.US) expects Q3 operating profit to maintain a new high in the previous quarter. , according to a performance forecast document released on Tuesday, ExxonMobil said the company expects operating profit to maintain a record high of $17.9 billion in the previous quarter as gas earnings offset weaker refining and chemicals. Natural gas was a business that benefited from price increases in the third quarter, while changes in oil and liquid products prices, as well as a decline in profit margins in refining and chemical products, dragged down last quarter's results, the report showed. ExxonMobil expects changes in natural gas prices to have a positive impact of $1.8 billion to $2.2 billion in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, but profits for energy products fell by $2.7 billion to $2.9 billion from the previous quarter, and is expected to have a negative impact of $1.4 billion to $1.8 billion in the third quarter due to the decline in liquid fuel prices.
Important economic data and event preview
Beijing time 20:15 US September ADP number of employment
Beijing time 22:00 US September ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Beijing time 22:30 US September EIA crude oil inventories changes in the week ending September 30
Beijing time the next day 04:00 2024 FOMC vote committee and Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic delivered a speech on the theme of resolute fight against inflation
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