Will housing prices still rise? Beijing Normal University professor Dong Fan believes that the rise in housing prices will still be the main tone in the future. In big cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai, housing prices may rise to 800,000 yuan/square meter in the future. At this stage, the average housing prices in big cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai are less than 100,000 yuan/square meter. In other words, there is still a lot of room for growth in the future. Therefore, Beijing Normal University professor Dong Fan believes that the sooner you buy a house, the better.
Frankly speaking, the author does not agree with Professor Dong Fan’s view. Why? There are three reasons.
On the one hand, the total housing volume in my country is now oversupply. According to the latest "National 100 Cities Residential Inventory Report" released by Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute on December 10, 2021, as of November 2021, the total inventory of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities across the country has reached 521.1 million square meters, the highest since August 2016. Moreover, according to the "2017 China Urban Housing Vacancy Analysis Report" released by Southwest University of Finance and Economics in in 2018, as of the end of 2017, the vacancy rate of urban housing in my country has exceeded 21%, and the number of vacant houses has reached 65 million. However, because this is the data at the end of 2017, the author believes that the vacancy rate of urban housing today may have long exceeded 21%, and the number of vacant houses has exceeded 65 million. Some experts said that if small property rights housing , resettlement housing, affordable housing and other housing forms are added, the total number of vacant houses in my country may be close to 100 million, which can meet the housing needs of at least 300 million people. In other words, the total housing volume in our country is already different from the past, and the excess housing volume has become a certain fact.
On the other hand, my country's housing demand is plummeting. According to the data from National Bureau of Statistics , in 2021, my country's birth population was only 10.62 million, showing a development trend of "five consecutive declines" (calculated from 2016). At the same time, the problem of population aging in my country is becoming increasingly serious. According to the data from First Financial , at present, the number of elderly people in 11 provinces in my country exceeds the "10 million mark", namely Shandong, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Henan, Hunan, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Anhui, Guangdong, Hebei and Hubei. On the one hand, the decline in the number of births and on the other hand, the problem of population aging is increasing. The combination of the two, it is not difficult to understand that my country's housing demand has plummeted. Moreover, according to the data from the Seventh Census, my country's urbanization rate has reached 63.89%. In the future, the urbanization process has entered a stage of slow development has become a high probability event. You should know that the slowdown in the urbanization process means that the speed of rural population entering the city has slowed down, so the demand for housing purchases in cities will naturally be even less.
It is more worth mentioning that in 2022, the "three red lines" set by the real estate authorities such as the central bank , , , , and , have entered a critical period. That is to say, starting from 2022, the strength of discounts and price-for-volume in the real estate market will be greater.
Judging from the above current situations, do you think housing prices will continue to grow? The author believes that the possibility is not high. On the contrary, the author believes that in 2022, the probability of the property market entering a "price cut" will be greater. In fact, since the second half of 2021, the "price reduction wave" in the real estate market has begun to show signs. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2021, new housing prices in 52 cities in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country fell, and second-hand housing prices in 64 cities fell, among which the decline in the new housing price index was the lowest level since 2015. Moreover, in November and December, the main theme of the market was to continue the "cooling mode".
Seeing this, some people may think that the author is advising everyone not to buy a house from 2022. In fact, this is not the case! The author is just advising everyone that starting from 2022, buying a house should be purchased as needed and do what you can. You must not buy a house blindly.Just as Dong Fan, a professor at Beijing Normal University, said, the real house slave is a renter. If you don’t buy a house, you will be forced to rent a house, and you will be forced to hand over your money to your landlord to help the landlord pay off your mortgage, but you will get nothing in the end. But what if you buy a house? Even if you buy a house with a loan and pay the monthly payment every month, you can still get a house in the end. Even if the value-added space of the house will be narrowed in the future, there is still no problem in maintaining the value. On this point, the author agrees with the view of Dong Fan, a professor at Peking Normal University. There is a saying that no matter how high the monthly payment is, it is an asset, and no matter how low the rent is, it is a consumption. What do you think about this?
I am @Dachuan talks about real estate market . Follow me to learn more about real estate market trends!
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