In the past 2021, my country's real estate market can be described as "both falling in volume and price", especially in the second half of 2021, the situation of "both falling in volume and price" in the real estate market is more obvious.

In the past 2021, my country's real estate market can be described as ", both volume and price drops ", especially in the second half of 2021, the situation of "volume and price drops till both volume and price drops" in the real estate market is more obvious.

On the one hand, according to data from the Housing Price Market Network, in 2021, housing prices in 163 cities across the country fell, and the mortgage purchase cost in the top 100 cities also dropped to 556,000 yuan, a decrease of 35,000 yuan from 2020. On the other hand, according to data from China Index Academy, from January to December 2021, the new housing construction area in the country was 1.99 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, and in December 2021 it was only 160 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 31.2%, an increase of 10.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the newly started residential construction area in the January to December 2021 was 1.46 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month.

It is more worth mentioning that the national average housing price in October 2021 has returned to "ten thousand yuan", about 9,749 yuan/square meter, which is lower than 9,860 yuan/square meter at the end of 2020.

So, the question is, why does my country's real estate market, which has maintained continuous growth in housing prices for a long time, have such a "rare" phenomenon in 2021? The author believes that in addition to the continued tightening of real estate market regulation in recent years, the "three major situations" facing the real estate market today cannot be ignored.

Current status 1: Urban housing ownership rate is nearly saturated

According to data from Central Bank , as of 2019, the housing ownership rate of urban residents in my country has reached 96%, with an average of 1.5 units per household, of which 58.4% of households own one house account for 58.4%, 31.1% of households own two houses account for 31.1%, and 10.5% of households own three or more houses account for 10.5%. That is to say, my country's urban housing ownership rate is almost saturated, and more than 40% of urban families own two or more houses. In addition, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of 2020, the per capita housing area of ​​urban cities in my country has reached about 40 square meters, ranking among the top in the world.

Current status 2: The inventory of newly built commercial residential buildings hit a new high

On December 10, Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute released the "National 100 Cities Residential Inventory Report". The report shows that as of November 2021, the inventory of newly built commercial residential buildings in 100 cities across the country was 521.1 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 2.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Among them, the inventory of newly built commercial residential buildings has shown a positive growth trend on the month-on-month for four consecutive months, and has maintained a positive growth trend for 36 consecutive months, reaching the highest inventory scale in the 100 cities in the country since August 2016, setting a new high in the past five years.

Current situation 3: The population fertility rate continues to decline

Data shows that in 2020, the number of newborns nationwide has dropped to 12 million, a decrease of 2.65 million compared with 2019. You should know that this is the downward trend of the population fertility rate after the opening of the second child. Some experts predict that if the population fertility rate continues to decline according to this trend, the number of newborns in my country may drop to less than 10 million in the next 3 to 5 years. At that time, coupled with the problem of population aging, my country may enter negative population growth, thereby increasing my country's pension burden, resulting in a shortage of social labor, and even hindering the all-round development of my country's economy.

Perhaps some people don’t understand what is the relationship between housing prices and fertility rates? Of course there is! Research data shows that housing prices have a significant negative impact on the probability of having children. For every 1,000 yuan/square meter increase in housing prices, the probability of having one child will be reduced by 1.8% to 2.9%, and the probability of having , second child will be reduced by 2.4% to 8.8%. Moreover, for every 1,000 yuan increase in housing prices, the time for women to have their first childbirth will be delayed by about 0.14 to 0.26 years.

In other words, in the context of the nearly saturation of the housing ownership rate of urban residents and the new inventory of newly built commercial housing hit a new high, the supply and demand relationship no longer supports the continued rise in housing prices. In the context of the continuous decline in population fertility rates, national policies will inevitably impose restrictions on housing prices to curb the continued rise in housing prices. All of these things, it is naturally not difficult to understand why there is a rare phenomenon of "both falling volume and price" in 2021.

So, under such a premise, how should the real estate market develop in 2022? The author believes that we can know a little about this from the statements of the central media. According to the article "Reasonable Housing Prices Are the Competitiveness of a City" published by Xinhua News Agency , housing is related to people's livelihood. Cities should closely focus on "housing for living, not for speculation" to adjust the level of urban housing prices, so that real estate can return to the housing level and attributes, and ensure the housing needs of young people, low-income people and new citizens. In addition, the article "The key to adhering to "housing for living, not speculation" is to do a good job in "security" and "stable"" published in China Economic Network also shows that we must always adhere to "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations" and we cannot regard real estate as a way to stimulate the economy in the short term.

is obvious. Whether it is the article of "Xinhua News Agency" or the article of "China Economic Net", they are all elaborating on a core idea, that is, "prevent housing prices from growing too fast." You should know that the attitude of the central media often represents the attitude of the senior management. In this way, the "rise and fall" of the real estate market will be clear in 2022.

If you have not figured out the trend of the real estate market in 2022, then you might as well take a look at the prediction of the 2022 real estate market: On December 22, the EA Real Estate Research Institute bluntly predicted in its annual report: In 2022, the average price of commercial housing transactions in the country may turn from rising to falling, and the year-on-year decline may reach 1%, the worst level since this century. Do you understand this?

I am @Dachuan talks about real estate market . Follow me to learn more about real estate market trends!