This is the 1333rd original article of Panda Beibei
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More than 30 cities support "One-person home purchase, family-owned help", and family-owned provident fund share the pressure of buying a house
Since 2022, more and more cities have introduced new provident fund policies, clarifying that direct relatives can withdraw housing provident fund to help home buyers pay for the purchase of houses or repay mortgages, and implement the "One-person home purchase, family-owned help".
According to incomplete media statistics, since 2022, at least Hunan Shaoyang , Guangdong Chaozhou, Hebei Qinhuangdao, Guangdong Zhuhai, Jiangxi Ganzhou, Hebei Cangzhou, Anhui Chizhou, Yunnan Chuxiong, Hebei Tangshan , Hubei Xianning , Fujian Quanzhou, Tianjin, Anhui Ma'anshan, Guangdong Shenzhen, Hainan, Henan Xinyang, Ningxia Wuzhong City, Zhejiang Lake More than 30 cities have issued new provident fund loan policies , including children's houses, children's houses, children's houses, children's houses, children's houses, children's houses, children's houses, children's houses, children's houses, children's houses, children's houses, children's houses, and children's houses, and children's houses, and many places have mentioned in their policies that children can withdraw their parents' provident fund to buy houses, and implement the "one-person house purchase and family help".
Image source: Pengpai News
Image source: Pengpai News
From a formal perspective, the policy adjustments of "one person buying a house and the whole family help" are respectively carried out from helping repay loans, helping to withdraw provident fund to pay down payments, and withdrawing relative provident fund to pay for the purchase of houses, which further reflects the flexibility and diversity of policy adjustments, and also echoes the policy orientation that supports residents' reasonable housing needs.
The introduction of such policies is mainly due to the slow process of restoring the real estate market, and the recurrence of the epidemic in many places, which has led to a weakening of the real estate transaction market. Each city has implemented policies to moderately adjust the real estate market policies according to the city, and shared the economic pressure of home buyers through the help of immediate relatives, repair residents' purchasing power from the demand side, help residents boost their home purchase sentiment, and provide an adjustment example for the adjustment of the national provident fund policy, which is of certain innovation. It is expected that some cities with low housing market prosperity in the future are expected to follow up on such policies to promote the recovery of market expectations.
However, the market and public opinion did not respond enthusiastically to such a policy adjustment that "dig six wallets deep".
Observation of the transactions and housing prices in the urban real estate market that have implemented the "one-person home purchase and family help" policy, the effect is not very obvious for the market recovery and comprehensive pull.
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Nearly 40 cities support families with multiple children to buy houses: increase home purchase indicators, issue subsidies, and withdraw loan quotas
The policy gameplay that is spawned by houses may be the most representative new attempt in this round of real estate market support and stimulation in 2022.
support and encourage the demand for home purchases for families with multiple children is becoming an important direction for local governments to optimize and adjust housing market policies.
According to incomplete media statistics, since May this year, nearly 40 cities including Hangzhou, Hengyang, Nanjing, Zhejiang, Zhoushan, Liaoning, Shenyang, Guangdong, Yangzhou, Jiangsu, Wuxi, Jiangxi Jingdezhen, Suzhou, Sichuan, Leshan, Sichuan, Shangrao, Jiangxi, Suining, Fujian, Xiamen, Fujian, Zibo, Sichuan, Liangshanzhou, Zhejiang, Ningbo, Jiangsu, Yancheng, Jiujiang, Huangshi, Hubei, Baoding, Sichuan Neijiang, Hebei Cangzhou, Jiaxing, Zhejiang, Changsha, Jiangsu, Xuzhou, Jiangsu Xinghua, Shandong, Qingdao, Shandong, Yantai, Anhui, Huangshan, Xinjiang, Tianmen, Guangxi, Nanning, Sichuan Yibin, Sichuan, Nanchong, Jiangxi, Yichun, Jiangxi, Dingzhou, Hebei, etc. have specifically mentioned the housing needs of families with multiple children in the issued real estate market policies.
Picture source: Pengpai News
Policy logic and intention are actually very obvious. This is a plan and guidance that kills two birds with one stone: the combination of
purchase restriction policy loosening + birth policy encouragement" can play a positive role, that is, while promoting the active market transactions, it also helps promote the solid promotion of population birth policy.
Of course, this is a combination of punches: in addition to allowing families with multiple children to purchase one more house, the policies issued by multiple cities clearly mention that the loan amount for families with multiple children can be increased based on the maximum loan limit. The introduction of policies such as
is undoubtedly to promote the release of market improvement demand. On the basis of meeting rigid housing purchase demand, the policy focus has gradually shifted to improvement groups. Such policy signals are of great significance and are in line with the trend of market development. Based on the current reality of China's real estate market, it has certain rationality.
combines the housing market policy with the national fertility level, which not only promotes the release of reasonable housing purchase demand, but also achieves the purpose of encouraging fertility and promoting population growth to a certain extent.
Look at the phenomenon and grasp the essence. What is worth paying attention to is not the "house-driven" policy itself, but the number and momentum of popularization of this policy. After all, it is still a clear support for the real estate market. From the current perspective, the measures to loosen policies in various places are becoming more and more diverse. It is expected that the policies will continue to be improved and deepened in the later period, and it is not ruled out that more cities will follow up.
This round of support and rescue of the Chinese real estate market has formed some obvious consensus nationwide.
Image source: Toutiao Library
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Trend analysis: How to use a rational and objective attitude to view the possible future trend of China's real estate market?
China's real estate market and real estate economy have typical policy market characteristics. To judge the direction of the real estate market, it is necessary to have a certain cognitive foundation for China's policy style and effectiveness.
, especially to have a general manifestation of policy popularization, it requires a certain ability to analyze and understand policies.
- 30 City supports "One-person home purchase, whole family help"
- 40 City supports multiple children to buy houses
This universal and highly unified policy can never be so superficial and simple to solve the current problems.
Because of the rapid economic development in the past 20 years, the general mentality of society and the people being eager for quick success and eager for success exists. Therefore, there are many public opinions and voices who are ridiculing the current policy adjustment of the real estate market, and the immediate pole is gone.
In fact, this is a good manifestation of the maturity and sustainable development of China's real estate market.
is immediately visible, which means the market is still impetuous.
In the short term, since 2022, a series of local regulatory relaxation has stimulated the real estate market. Of course, there is a view and demand for the recovery of the real estate market. Of course, there are also considerations and demands for the recovery of the real estate market. Of course, there are also red lines testing and games between the will of some places and the national.
By the fourth quarter, the red line and the focus of the game were also very clear, so policies with popularization effects began to become obvious and concentrated. In fact, they are no longer pursuing short-term effects. Only by seeing this level can we say that we have some analysis and judgment on the subsequent trend of China's real estate market.
Don’t forget, what is the economic tone setting at the beginning of 2022?
"Stability is the first, seek progress while maintaining stability"!
policy serves the economy, so as policies with obvious popularization effects begin to appear more and more, it is very important to understand policy layout and economic planning actions.
I don’t know if you have noticed something recently. When the holiday on October 8, 2022 just ended, People’s Bank of China released a very important information.
That is the mortgage supplementary loan in September 2022, that is, the PSL tool has begun to resume positive growth again.
This is the first positive growth in mortgage supplementary loans since February 2020. The net new scale has also returned to more than 100 billion after many years.
Image source: Internet
In a sense, like several other tools, PLS can be regarded as a tool for the expansion of base currency, or central bank to expand the balance sheet. Mortgage supplementary loans such as
PSL were previously mainly born for the monetary resettlement of shantytown renovation.
Of course, there is no unfounded guessing and speculation here. It is just a matter of sharing it with everyone based on the policy environment and factual dynamics.
In a sense, the increase in mortgage supplementary loans such as PSL also means that the central bank has begun to expand its balance sheet in the short term.
Expansion of the balance sheet means injecting liquidity into the economy and increasing the money supply. Balance reduction means taking away money from the economy and reducing the money supply.
Where will these currencies eventually flow to, it will bring relatively large-scale incremental and stimulation to this field or related directions.
After 2015, PLS flowed to monetization of shantytowns and subsequent destocking of third- and fourth-tier real estate markets is a very obvious example.
Of course, will you continue to relax and stimulate demand through PSL and other tools in the future? You can also observe the relevant data while walking.
Returning to the policy layout behind the current two important data of the real estate market, it is not difficult to see that the national level may introduce some new gameplay or adjustments to the real estate economy and the real estate market.
The left-hand finance, the right-hand finance, and local cooperation, a new round of stable growth may be fully launched.
Please note that the stable tone will not change, which is very important.
In China, losing confidence in the real estate market and housing prices means not confident in the Chinese economy. Although this conclusion will be difficult for many micro-individuals to accept, please carefully understand whether this is the truth?
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
at the end:
Some suggestions for current real estate market participants sharing
At present, discussing the real estate market and housing prices, in fact, the public opinion environment and public opinion attitude are not friendly.
and even "only by reducing prices can the real estate market recover" have become a consensus among public opinion and the Internet to a certain extent.
can be understood, but there is no way to accept that 50% of the circulating RMB is anchored to foreign exchange and 30% is anchored to real estate internally. If housing prices plummet uncontrollably, it is not as simple as more people can afford a house, but China's financial system and currency value will face the impact and test of systemic risks.
or the efficiency of foreign exchange earnings is improved, and the scale of foreign exchange earnings is increased, so there will be a safe space for further reduction in housing prices. The problem is the reality. Everyone knows: the momentum of the US rate hike of in the United States has not reversed, and before the global epidemic has changed, in fact, one of the most important economic management tasks of China is to stabilize housing prices internally.
This has nothing to do with the market and public opinion, this is reality.
Of course, there must be extreme thinking and rogue proletarians who want to say that I am real estate custody , and all kinds of insults and swear words come here without money. In fact, there is no need.
is not not helping the people and ordinary groups. Your thoughts on buying at the bottom of the market when housing prices fall, there is no need to hide it. It is definitely a disaster to be able to rely on such a group to understand the country and drive the market.
has been working in front-line real estate companies for so many years, and these small thoughts and exquisite self-interested extreme thinking can be seen too clearly.
The real estate market in 2022 is a structural problem caused by China's economic structural adjustment. Let's repeat a judgment in the previous article:
As long as the income expectations of the residents' sector cannot be improved, no stimulus policy will play a substantial role.
, at the national level, we are naturally familiar with the truth. The current problems cannot be solved by the adjustment of real estate market policies and regulation. As long as the economy rises and the people have money, who will pay attention to these voices and opinions that are shouting that housing prices will fall all day long?
Therefore, based on the above essence mining and logical analysis, at the end of the article, starting from a professional, rational and objective perspective, I will share a few personal judgments and suggestions on the subsequent Chinese real estate market. It is not necessarily correct. Just use it as a throw-in for readers and friends to discuss and refer to it.
1, the fourth quarter of 2022, is a real group of urgent needs and improvements. It may be a rare window period for entering the market in the next few years.
Of course, it is not to persuade everyone to buy a house. Buying a house is not a small matter. Everything starts from your own actual situation, from your own needs, from your income and purchasing power. If you want it, buy it. There is no need to be disturbed and influenced by public opinion and market negative emotions.
2, the investment group is worthy of vigilance. A very realistic logic is that if the real estate market recovery is not as expected, the country will have made a long time ago and made follow-up preparations. What can be seen is the introduction of real estate tax. The logic of
may be worth thinking about it carefully. The real estate market corresponds to land finance . Without the land selling effect brought by the real estate market, local government revenue will shift to tax source development.
This is an inevitable trend, it is just the length, short, the efficiency, speed and slowness.
In the future real estate market, investment demand has no priority, and the most priority is real housing demand.
3, the speculative group, the final chance to cut off the flesh and cash out, save your life and escape, this is how, I won’t explain much, anyway, it’s all my own money and my own actions, which can give benefits to the real demand group, which is also a good thing.
is afraid that no one cares about it, and lacks support from demand, so I can only accept my fate as soon as possible and see the reality clearly.
4, from a macro perspective, in the fourth quarter of 2022, in the next period, China's economy will recover and grow in the overall economy, just focus on the trends in the real estate economy and the real estate market. Once the policy layout is completed, key policy trends will be introduced, industry rectification, and market reversal will become signals of the comprehensive recovery of China's economy.
or above is a special interpretation and analysis of the two subtle data signals of the start of the Chinese real estate market in the fourth quarter of 2022, and a sharing and exchange with all friends.
Image source: Toutiao Picture Library
(According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, the content and opinions of this article are for reference only and do not constitute any clear suggestions on property purchase, investment, etc., and you can bear the risk of entering the market at your own risk.)
or above text, from @Panda Beibei Little Cute
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