Glass king Cao Dewang has spoken out about real estate more than once. In his opinion, the house is just a pile of steel and concrete, which is not worth anything at all! Moreover, he also said that we should no longer "raise housing prices". The strength of the real economy is the core competitiveness. Real estate can only bring false prosperity on the surface of the economy. Only by serious about science and technology and scientific research and manufacturing can the country develop and rise. In response to this, economist Ma Guangyuan directly angrily retorted: Understanding a house as steel and concrete is either stupid or bad, which is completely misleading the people.
However, judging from the development trend of the real estate market in the past two years, Cao Dewang's prediction may be "fulfilled"! According to data from the Housing Price Market Network, in 2021, housing prices in 163 cities across the country fell, and the mortgage purchase cost in the top 100 cities also dropped to 556,000 yuan, a decrease of 35,000 yuan from 2020.
It is worth mentioning that according to the data from National Bureau of Statistics , in October 2021, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country, 52 cities saw new housing prices fall, and 64 cities saw second-hand housing prices fall, among which the new housing price index fell by a new low since 2015. Moreover, according to the calculations of relevant institutions, the national average housing price in October 2021 has returned to less than 10,000 yuan, about 9,749 yuan/square meter, which is even lower than 9,860 yuan/square meter at the end of 2020.
In addition to this, what we should pay more attention to is that since 2021, the real estate market has ushered in "three major reversals". We have a clear idea of whether to buy a house.
1. The land market is cold
It is undeniable that in the past 20 years, the continued growth of housing prices in my country has mainly come from the promotion of land prices. However, since 2021, the country has begun to implement new regulations on centralized land supply, which has higher requirements for real estate companies to acquire land. At the same time, it has also put new restrictions on land premium , with a maximum of no more than 15%.
According to data from China Index Academy, from January to September 2021, the residential land transfer fee in 300 cities across the country decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, of which the year-on-year decline in the third quarter of 2021 reached 36.6%. At the same time, as of October 17, 2021, the total number of listed land plots in the second round of concentrated land supply reached 822, but the number of failed plots reached 266, with a failed auction rate of more than 32%. Even cities such as Beijing and Hangzhou, which have always been popular in the land auction market, have failed auction rates of more than 50%.
and land premium rate in 2021 is also continuing to decline. Data from the China Index Academy shows that from January to September 2021, the average premium rate of residential land in 300 cities across the country reached 14.8%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the average premium rate in September 2021 reached 4.1%, a decrease of 10.8 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, Changsha, Chongqing and other cities have even seen transactions at the lowest price, with a premium rate of 0. Some experts said that the cooldown in the land market in 2021 has basically laid the groundwork for the downward housing prices in the next 2 to 3 years.
2, real estate speculation declined
According to the data from the People's Bank of China website, in February 2022, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.8 billion yuan. By department, household loans decreased by 336.9 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 291.1 billion yuan, and medium- and long-term loans decreased by 45.9 billion yuan. In particular, long-term loans decreased by 50% compared with expectations, which was the first negative growth since 2017.
Many people may not be clear about it. Long-term loans generally refer to residents buying a house. The reduction in long-term loan expectations means that fewer people buy a house with a loan. To put it bluntly, it means that everyone is unwilling to buy a house, especially when buying a house with a loan. In this way, it is not difficult to understand the decline of real estate speculation.
3. Relaxation of real estate market regulation has followed one after another
Since 2022, loosening of real estate market regulation has come one after another. For example, in February, six major banks in Guangzhou lowered mortgage interest rates to 5.4% for the first home and 5.6% for the second home.For example, in March, Zhengzhou not only canceled the "recognition of houses and loans", but also stipulated that the down payment of the second house with a loan of 30% is enough. In addition, it is also allowed to buy three houses, allowing real estate prices to be reduced, guiding banks to cut interest rates, etc.
In addition, the down payment ratio is reduced, the sale restrictions, purchase restrictions, price restrictions, and the issuance of housing purchase subsidies, and other loosening of real estate market regulation has also been staged in many places across the country.
We need to be clear that the country's attitude towards the real estate market has always been developing steadily and healthily. The reason why the regulation of real estate market in many places across the country has been loosened is precisely because of the significant cooling of the real estate market in recent times. At this time, if the real estate market is allowed to cool down, the chain reaction may be that each of us cannot bear, so the relaxation of regulation will occur. However, this also indirectly reflects the current status of the real estate market, that is, it is starting to go downhill!
What do you think about this? Is there any idea whether to buy a house?
I am @Dachuan talks about real estate market , follow me to learn more about real estate market trends!
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