Weird phenomenon has occurred.
During the National Day, the Shenzhen real estate market, which has been frozen for a period of time, sparked;
7 days of National Day, the transaction volume of new houses in Shenzhen reached 1,081 units, a year-on-year increase of 163% !
You should know that last year's National Day was the hottest time in Shenzhen's real estate market!
The market this year is not as good as last year, but the trading volume is higher than last year, which is indeed a bit weird.
Of course, this is not the weirdest thing. The weirdest thing is -
During the National Day holiday, 7 days, The entire Shenzhen second-hand houses were sold, with only 4 units! What is the concept of suite
4? Even if it is a new property in a third-tier city, I'm afraid it can sell 4 units a day.
The transaction volume of this second-hand house in Shenzhen is about to start refreshing the lower limit?
When I first saw this data, I also found it outrageous.
But if you look at this data carefully, you will find that this "4 sets" are actually easy to mislead. There are two reasons why
have 4 sets of .
First, everyone went out to play on National Day, and no one was willing to take over the second-hand house happily.
Second, during the National Day, the Shenzhen Land and Resources Bureau did not go to work, and forced the online signing of second-hand houses.
Check the data from previous years and you will find that during the National Day of the past year, there was no transaction data for second-hand houses in Shenzhen, and it was not a special one this year.
Because second-hand houses cannot be signed online, the online signing in September and early October will either be piled up at the end of September or after National Day, or it will be piled up for two days after National Day to solve the problem.
There are 4 sets of online signs on the 1st during the National Day holiday. I think it should be that the government department forced overtime to work.
serves the people during the National Day, and there is nothing wrong with it.
If you want to know the popularity of second-hand houses during the National Day holiday, I think you can take a look at the two days after the National Day holiday in the past few years, that is, the number of online signings on 9th and 10th:
2018, 322 sets of online signings;
2019, 546 sets of online signings;
2020, 546 sets of online signings;
2020, 221 sets;
2021, 123 sets of online signing
is still the lowest this year. Compared with last year, fell by about 50% ,
Considering that many of them are online signing left over from September, the transaction volume in the first seven days of October is unlikely to be only 4 sets, but it is definitely pitifully small.
It is true that second-hand houses are very cold, and only 4 units are sold out randomly.
The data is not important, the key is the two current real estate market truths in Shenzhen behind the data!
What is the truth?
First, there is only the urgent need left in the Shenzhen real estate market.
The former seed player in the Shenzhen real estate market - Investor After two rounds of regulation of the "battle royale", he has long been driven out.
The only remaining buyers who are patient and wait for the quota.
But don’t worry, there are definitely a few such people, because the middle class nowadays are all very anxious, holding money in their hands like holding a bomb. It’s uncomfortable to spend it, and people who can wait for it are weird.
Another major force in the Shenzhen real estate market - Improve demand , and now it is gone.
Shenzhen’s improved customers cannot compete with the basic needs of new houses, and can only be included in second-hand houses.
. After many customers enter the second-hand housing market, they have to face a hurdle - Sell the house first to have the funds to buy a house.
The most embarrassing thing now is that after the guidance price is issued and the credit is tightened, your own house cannot be sold, and the house you like will not be reduced.
returns and returns to the original point.
"What else can I buy? Keep living!" The improver quit the game cursed.
The only one who stayed behind is . The only one who needs is the one who needs .
The prices of second-hand houses in Shenzhen are now unable to fall at a high level, and only new houses are friendly to basic needs in terms of points and prices.
who is the first to choose? Of course, choose a new house!
So everyone should understand that the popularity of new houses in Shenzhen is far better than that of second-hand houses, the continuous decline in second-hand house transactions, and the great differentiation of new houses and second-hand house transactions during the National Day are all the results of the choice of urgent needs.
Judging from the current momentum, if you want to have a thousand second-hand house transactions in Shenzhen this month, you may have to worship God in advance.
The second truth is that buyers in Shenzhen are "exiting the Shenzhen real estate market".
Although new houses were sold against the trend during the seven days of National Day, the new house market has a huge difference in popularity compared to the past. The most direct example of
is the Shajing Coast City, which was previously recommended. The minimum score for is only 59 points, , and the competition is far inferior to the first opening at the beginning of the year.
Latest Coast City Points Requirements
You should know that in May, the minimum points for Xingwei Huafu in Fuyong are required to be 60.2 points.
In just a few months, Xiao Tiantian has become Mrs. Niu. The Internet celebrity project that once attracted a lot of attention is not even as good as a small property at the airport...
What is more exaggerated is not this, but what is even more exaggerated is:
The new project points of the coast city are already the new project with the highest points recently. Qianhai Mawan's second phase, with a minimum final score of 53.1 points;
Guangming Xinghe Tiandi Phase IV, with a minimum final score of 48.8 points
Yi'an Metropolitan Central Garden in Longgang , with a minimum final score of 39.2 points
and some other plates are even more outrageous, and you don't even need points.
new disks that do not require points usually only existed in the east. Now even Baoan and Guangming, which were once popular, are hard to escape.
For example, Hongfaxiyue Huafu and Qiancheng Binhai Garden in Bao'an do not need points
Bright Golden Earth Peak Realm Ruifu Phase 2, nor do points.
These games will be placed at the beginning of the year. 60 points are still the entry threshold, and 70 points are not 100% stable.
At this time, you can see that the confidence and emotions in the market are really important. Without confidence, Shenzhen, which was once the most popular, did not even dare to buy a house for urgent needs.
Buyers collectively withdraw from the real estate market tacitly, which is the biggest crisis in the current real estate market in Shenzhen.
The current Shenzhen real estate market has entered the buyer market.
Buyer market, as the name implies, is a market where buyers dominate.
At present, the most confident owner in the country met a buyer who was originally a mess but unexpectedly united due to regulation. Before
, owners have always joined forces to form an owner group, monopolized the pricing power, and the buyers secretly suffered losses.
Now, buyers finally wait for the best opportunity to fight back.
want me to say, take its life while it is sick.
As long as you maintain the current state, the longer the time passes, the more beneficial it will be to the buyer.
Even if buyers do not have a buyer group, they will always be a mess and their opinions will never be consistent.
But you also need to understand that the most in your own interests in the second-hand market is:
Continue not to buy, continue to consume, and continue to play with the owner.
The current situation is good for buyers.
First, there is sufficient supply of new houses in Shenzhen.
The supply of new houses in Shenzhen is now very large. Last month's second concentrated land auction, everyone has also seen it:
Shenzhen's failure rate is the lowest in the country;
out of 122 plots of land, 17 are sold at the highest price limit;
The real estate companies that successfully acquire land are mainly state-owned enterprises and there is no risk of bursting;
price limit continues to shrink, the inverted space for new and second-hand houses has become larger, and the price advantage of new houses is expanding;
The market has not dampened the confidence of real estate companies in acquiring land, and ensured the supply of commercial housing in Shenzhen in the future within one to two years.
As long as there is food and grass to be replenished in the future, the buyer will have the confidence to fight a protracted war.
Second, there is no sign of slowing down the pace of regulation.
At the end of last month, Central Bank proposed two "maintenances". The real estate market seems to have a signal of recovery, and many people are looking forward to the relaxation of regulation.
People who have this idea obviously think too much....
0 Now the blow-up requires "two maintenance", which is actually to prevent the real estate market and finance from being beaten down too quickly. Houses living and not speculating have just achieved results, and they will definitely not brake so quickly.
And everyone needs to figure it out, even if the national regulation needs to be relaxed, Shenzhen cannot relax.
As long as the regulation continues to maintain strength, buyers can maintain their current strength. Let’s take a look at
. Second-hand transactions will continue to fall in the future; as for new houses, some Internet celebrity properties may be chased by some people, while others depend on luck.
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