As we all know, my country's refined oil prices are adjusted according to international crude oil prices, and their cycle is once every 10 working days. According to the schedule of my country's oil price adjustment this year, it can be seen that the new round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on October 10. At that time, domestic oil prices will usher in the 19th round of adjustment this year, and gasoline and diesel prices will show new changes.
At present, domestic oil prices have achieved "three consecutive declines", because the new round of pricing cycle has reached the third working day, the crude oil change rate for price adjustment reference is -3.35%, an increase of 1.41 percentage points from the previous working day, and the operation is deepened within the negative range. The cumulative decline of oil price forecasts reaches 145 yuan/ton, which is much higher than the price adjustment red line. Therefore, oil prices are in a downward state. To be converted into liter prices, the latest oil price is predicted to drop by more than 0.1 yuan per lift, specifically 0.10 yuan/liter-0.12 yuan/liter. Therefore, for ordinary private cars, spend about 5-6 yuan less than a box of 50L gasoline. Obviously, the current forecast decline in oil prices is fully in line with the standards of lowering, so the price adjustment may fall, which means it is expected to usher in the "eighth decline" this year.
Of course, for this round of domestic pricing cycle, oil prices showed a "three consecutive declines" trend, which was mainly caused by the intensified market concerns about oil demand. The important factor driving this phenomenon is Fed rate hike . Under the influence of the chain effect, many countries around the world have begun to follow suit, causing the market's concerns about the global economic downturn to heat up, further suppressing oil prices, and prompting international crude oil futures prices to fall sharply in the overnight market. WTI fell below the $80/barrel mark, setting a new low since January this year.
Specifically, international oil prices fluctuated and lowered last week, with oil prices in the United States and New York falling by 7.48% and Brent in the United Kingdom falling by 5.69%. Obviously, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures both fell sharply, and the outlook for crude oil demand is not optimistic, which is a relatively rare phenomenon in history. In addition, the reasons for the recent continued decline in oil prices are mainly divided into two points: First, the strengthening of the US dollar has continued to pressure on oil prices, which has had a significant suppression effect on it; Second, as the interest rate hike started by global central banks has become increasingly surging, investors' concerns about the risk of global economic recession have increased, which has weakened the outlook for crude oil demand, leading to a lower international oil price.
Secondly, since international oil prices are an important weather vane for my country's refined oil price adjustment, general changes in international crude oil futures prices will have a significant impact on domestic oil prices. Therefore, as market concerns have increased recently, international oil prices have continued to be under pressure, corresponding to the decline in my country's refined oil price forecasts, and the decline has continued for three consecutive working days, especially the third working day's forecast decline in oil price has expanded again to more than 100 yuan/ton, and it is still far beyond the price adjustment red line, which may lay the foundation for the next round of price adjustments to decline.
Furthermore, more and more countries around the world are facing the risk of high inflation and currency depreciation. Last week, many central banks including the United Kingdom, Sweden , Switzerland and Norway announced interest rate hikes. The sharp interest rate hikes against inflation have continued to intensify the market's concerns about global economic growth. Due to the rising expected risks, current economic activities and fuel demand are naturally suppressed and market confidence is disturbed. Including Europe's energy shortage and oil price limits on Russia, these factors will lead to the loss of liquidity and the increase in economic downward pressure, which will put pressure on commodity , including oil prices, and will also be subject to almost unprecedented tests.
Therefore, due to factors such as the rising market's concerns about oil demand, domestic refined oil prices showed "three consecutive declines" in the three working days before the start of the new round of pricing cycle. As the crude oil change rate on the third working day -3.35%, it continued to operate in the negative range. The latest forecast is more than 0.1 yuan per increase and decrease. Combined with multiple indicators, it is expected that the price adjustment may fall again.
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