Pre-market market trends
1. On September 19 (Monday) U.S. stock Before the market, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.86%, S&P 500 index futures fell 0.86%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.83%.
2. As of press time, German DAX index fell 0.40%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.62%, French CAC40 index fell 1.03%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.73%.
3. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 3.42% to US$81.86 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 3.01% to $88.60 per barrel.
Market news
"Super Central Bank Week" is coming! The global tide of hikes in rate hikes continues, and Federal Reserve violently raises 100 basis points. , including the Federal Reserve, many central banks around the world, will announce interest rate decisions this week. Major central banks around the world are expected to cumulative rate hikes by more than 500 basis points this week, and the rate hikes may be even greater if officials choose more radical measures. At 2:00 Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate resolutions, policy statements and economic expectations. The market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, but after last week's release of CPI data that exceeded expectations, some investors bet the Fed will raise interest rates by 100 basis points. More central banks will announce interest rate decisions on Thursday. The market expects the Bank of Japan to remain calm, and the Bank of Philippines and Indonesia will raise interest rates. The market focus then turned to Europe, with the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Central Bank and the Bank of England expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points or more.
On the eve of the Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rates, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 3.5% to hit a new high since 2011. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields soared ahead of the Fed's Fed's interest rate decision this week as inflation trends provide the Fed with a more radical reason to tighten monetary policy. On Monday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose above 3.50% for the first time since 2011, and is currently rising by more than 6 basis points in the day to 3.512%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate outlook, is currently rising by more than 8 basis points during the day to 3.940%. Last week, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a record high of nearly fifteen years for the sixth consecutive day, up 30 basis points throughout the week. At present, traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points this week is basically a foregone conclusion, and some have even begun to bet that the rate hike will reach 100 basis points in order to curb price pressure. The futures market currently expects the possibility of the Fed hike rate 3100 basis points instead of 75 basis points slightly higher than 20%.
Market News: OPEC+'s oil production in August decreased by 3.583 million barrels per day compared with its target. sources revealed that OPEC + oil production in August was below the target level, with the output gap reaching a record 3.58 million barrels per day. Data shows that the total production gap of 10 core OPEC members is 1.399 million barrels per day, while non-OPEC allies are 2.185 million barrels per day. This greatly widened the gap between OPEC+'s actual output and output quota, which in July's oil production was 2.9 million barrels per day lower than its target. The agency commented that these numbers verified the speculation that OPEC+ has no idle capacity. Saudi and the UAE are only two members with real say in the issue of increased production, but given that oil prices are on the verge of falling in the past few weeks, they are not expected to open up the taps for increased production anytime soon. It is worth mentioning that market news said that the UAE has accelerated plans to increase its oil production capacity.
Russian Ambassador to Germany: Russia is even preparing to launch "North Stream 2" tomorrow. Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergei Nechaev said, "The multi-billion-dollar " Nord Stream-2" is fully ready to run, has passed all inspections, and meets the strictest safety standards. Launching it will help Germany solve many problems. But Berlin continues to deny it, resulting in a shortage of natural gas and stimulating price increases. The Russian President confirms that our country is even ready to start it tomorrow." Earlier, the websites of two German natural gas pipeline operators showed that the gas purchaser issued gas supply requirements to the " Nord Stream-1" natural gas pipeline leading to Germany on September 19. It is reported that this is the first time that the German gas purchaser has requested the "North Stream-1" gas supply after the suspension of gas transmission due to maintenance about three weeks ago.Beixi Natural Gas Pipeline Company said it could not confirm that Germany's gas purchaser requested the supply of natural gas through the "North Xi-1" pipeline on the 19th.
Goldman Sachs: Lower the growth rate of GDP in the United States next year to 1.1%, and it is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September. Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for 2023 U.S. GDP, (GDP) as it expects the Fed to implement more radical austerity policies for the rest of the year and believes that it will drive up unemployment. The bank currently expects U.S. GDP growth to be 1.1% next year, lower than the previous forecast of a 1.5% growth rate from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the end of 2023. In addition, the Federal Reserve will raise policy interest rates by 75 basis points at its meeting this week, higher than the previously expected 50 basis points, and expect another 50 basis points to raise interest rates in November and December, with the federal funds rate reaching a peak of 4-4.25% by the end of this year. Finally, the agency expects that the unemployment rate will rise from 3.6% to 3.7% by the end of this year and to 4.1% from 3.8% before the end of 2023.
Chief Economist of the European Central Bank: Rate hikes may continue until next year. ECB chief economist Philip Lane said on Saturday that the ECB could raise interest rates until next year, and that it would cause pain to consumers as it attempts to curb demand; demand is increasingly pushing up inflation. With the euro zone inflation approaching double digits, the ECB raised interest rates twice in July and September and promised more action as even long-term inflation expectations now exceed the 2% target. "We do think this will curb demand, and we won't pretend it's not painful. Demand is now a source of inflationary pressure, and it was not like it is now," said Ryan. "With the 0.75% deposit rate of ECB is still too low in the case of continuing to suppress the economy, so the ECB's work has not been completed.
stocks news
Tesla (TSLA.US) has completed the expansion of production capacity of Shanghai factory. It is said that the company hopes that the sales of electric vehicle in Germany can double to 80,000 in 2022. Tesla completed the capacity expansion project of its Shanghai factory on Monday. The statement also said that Tesla will upgrade the production line from September 19 to November 30. It is understood that this production line optimization project is Tesla's expansion based on its existing factory. Earlier, Tesla executives said they planned to double German car sales to 80,000 units by 2022, saying: "Our goal is to double sales every year, which means that production in Germany will be about 80,000 units in 2022." In 2021, Tesla sold 39,714 units in Germany and built its first European gigabit factory in Gruenheide near Berlin. Tesla has not yet responded to the news.
"Southeast Asia Little Tencent" Sea (SE.US) plans to lay off 3% of its employees in Indonesia . , known as the "Southeast Asia Little Tencent", is preparing to fire 3% of Shopee employees in Indonesia. This is part of a massive wave of layoffs in the region. Sea's move is to curb expanding losses and win back investors. According to an internal memo seen by the media, the Singapore company will inform affected employees in its money-burning e-commerce department Shopee starting Monday. Overall, Sea plans to cut down single-digit staff, a person familiar with the matter said. According to the memorandum, the company intends to provide severance payments and help to affected employees. Sea's profit prospects are questioned by investors amid rising interest rates and increasingly fierce competition. Since its high in October last year, the company's market value has evaporated by about $170 billion.
Due to the decline in e-commerce business, Amazon (AMZN.US) suspends the construction of new warehouses in Spain. reportedly Amazon has suspended the construction of new warehouses in Spain until 2024. As epidemic-driven online shopping has slowed, the company told its suppliers and partners to "stay waiting and see." "Our commitment to Spain remains. In 2022, we open a new logistics station, Amazon fresh food center and a logistics center in Spain." The company said in June this year that it plans to add 2,000 new jobs in Spain by 2022, bringing its total number of employees in the country to 20,000.
VWAGY.US intends to raise US$9.4 billion for the Porsche IPO, with a valuation of 70-75 billion euros. Volkswagen hopes to raise up to 9.4 billion euros ($9.41 billion) from Porsche’s initial public offering, which is probably the largest listing in Europe in more than a decade. Volkswagen currently values its listing from 70 billion to 75 billion euros, down from its earlier top target of up to 85 billion euros, the deal was conducted amid deep market turmoil. Investors are deterred by IPOs due to the region's energy crisis, rising interest rates and record inflation, and European markets are basically closed for most of the year. The release period will start on September 20 and trading is scheduled to begin on September 29. "We are now in the final stages of Porsche's IPO plan and welcome the commitments from more cornerstone investors ," said Arno Antlitz, chief financial officer of Volkswagen.
The share of US streaming media surpasses cable TV again, with Netflix (NFLX.US) and YouTube leading the way. The share of streaming videos in consumer TV system usage time increased again in August. Although the return-to-school season means a decline in overall TV system usage time, the penetration rate of streaming platforms is still growing. Data shows that for the fifth consecutive month, streaming media's market share in TV systems has continued to increase, rising to 35% after some high-profile new content was released. Specifically, long-standing industry leader Netflix's market share declined in August, from 8.0% to 7.6%, and in July " Strange Things " brought very strong ratings to the platform. The market share of YouTube/YouTube TV, a subsidiary of Google (GOOGL.US), rose from 7.3% to 7.6%, almost the same as streaming overlord Netflix for the first time.
Total (TTE.US) builds a US$700 million natural gas project offshore in Argentina . Total announced on Monday that it has decided to invest about US$706 million in the offshore area of Tierra del Fuego in southern Argentina. The company said the project includes the establishment of three gas wells and a pipeline that will produce 10 million cubic meters of natural gas per day. Total holds a 37.5% interest in the project and operates in partnership with WintershallDea (37.5% stake) and Pan American Sur (25% stake).
Important economic data and event prediction
Beijing time 22:00: The US NAHB real estate market index in September, the market currently expects it to record 47, with the previous value of 49.
Reminder: Japanese stock market and British stock market are closed for one day.
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