Copper prices fluctuated and rose this week. As of 3 pm on Friday, the main Shanghai copper 2209 contract closed at 62,930 points, a weekly increase of 4.34% or 2,620 yuan.

1. Review of futures and spot market

1. Copper prices fluctuated and rose, with the pressure of Shanghai copper at 63,000 yuan

Figure 1: Shanghai copper main force 60 minutes trend chart

This week's copper price fluctuated and rose. As of 3 pm on Friday, the main 2209 contract of Shanghai copper closed at 62,930 points, and the weekly rose by 4.34% or 2,620 yuan. The strong non-farm employment data in July of the U.S. eased market concerns about the recession. At the same time, the US CPI fell by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year in July, and the PPI data also changed its growth trend and unexpectedly declined. The view of inflation peaking was strengthened. The US dollar index further moved and fell , and the overall commodity continued to rebound. The fundamentals are relatively strong, with low inventory combined with domestic smelters that may reduce power and production, national storage and other news, Shanghai copper has been stimulated to rise and hit the 63,000 mark.

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2. The market is rising, and the downstream is in a strong sense of fear of highs and highs

This week, spot copper rose 2,570 yuan, and good copper premium of 10 yuan on Friday. This week, due to the high price rise , and the high premium the next month, the overall spot transaction situation is relatively poor. After the copper price rose rapidly, the downstream was in a strong sense of fear of highs, and the holders successively lowered the liters of water. In terms of import profit and loss, the exchange rate this week was relatively stable, and the import profit window continued to narrow, and now it remains around 50 yuan/ton.

Figure 2: Electrolytic copper and premium discount trend

Figure 3: Import profit and loss ratio

2. Waste market dynamics

Spot copper rose by about 2600 yuan/ton compared with last week, and scrap copper rose by about 2400 yuan/ton. The price difference between refined waste is around 240 yuan, compared with the increase of last week's 60 yuan.

This week, the overall Shanghai copper market fluctuated upward, and the scrap copper price rose , boosting the willingness of scrap copper merchants to ship. Holders who were holding goods in the early stage began to sell goods one after another, making profits to avoid losses caused by the market decline in the later stage. At the close of Shanghai copper on Wednesday, the price of fell , and the current market is unclear, and merchants are stolen again, and the market is deserted. As the weekend approaches, copper prices have risen again with . Merchants shipped goods at high prices, and the market supply increased. At the same time, some traders are optimistic about the future market rising . According to nonferrous metals visits and investigations, it was learned that the supply of goods in Hebei is mostly flowing to high-priced copper factories such as Hubei and Jiangxi. The procurement pressure of copper factories in Hebei is relatively high, and some copper factories are still in the state of shutting down the furnace of .

It is understood that Guixi area has taken silent measures due to the epidemic, reminding customers to pay attention to protective measures when dealing with each other.

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3. This week's market trend and next week's forecast:

Shanghai copper fluctuated upward this week. The stronger than expected U.S. non-farm employment data in July eased market concerns about the recession, and copper prices continued to rebound at the beginning of the week. On Wednesday evening, the US July CPI and core CPI data were released. Both of them slowed down and were lower than expected. The theory of inflation peaked was verified, and the US dollar index fell sharply. With the implementation of two major data, macro sentiment has been significantly repaired and the center of gravity of copper prices has shifted upward. It is still some time before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September, and the short-term macro-transfers fundamentals.

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At present, the supply of overseas copper mines is still disturbed; domestically, due to power restrictions in many places, smelters may experience production cuts. In addition, the news of the collection and storage of copper and nickel in the second half of the year has played a certain stimulating role for copper, which is currently at an extremely low inventory level. In terms of demand, the "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching, and the downstream cable operation rate has improved month-on-month, and the market still holds optimistic expectations. This week, the macro and fundamentals resonate, supporting the rise of copper prices; is expected to remain in a strong volatility next week. operating range reference: Shanghai copper main force is 60,000-63,500 yuan, London copper is 8,000-8,300 US dollars, scrap copper is 56,000-59,000 yuan.