Source: China Taiwan Network Original title: The Kuomintang returns to the path of cracking 20 years ago?

Source: China Taiwan Network

Original title: The Kuomintang returns to the path of cracking 20 years ago? Blue Councilor: Times have changed

Chen Shui-bian, Lien Chan, Song Chuyu

China Taiwan Network September 13th According to Hong Kong's "China Review News Agency", China's Kuomintang Taoyuan City Councilor Lin Zhengxian said in an interview that Hon Hai founder Guo Taiming withdrew from the Kuomintang and headed towards independent elections. The 2020 general election has the opportunity to repeat the "three strong alliances" of the Blue Camp 2 and Green Camp 1 in 2000. But after 20 years, Taiwan's political environment has changed a lot. Song Chuyu, who was currently in the military and public education, was supported by the Kuomintang, and now he is nominated by the retired military and public education, and Han Kuo-yu, who is nominated by the Kuomintang; and the current military and public education, may not support the Kuomintang, because the Democratic Progressive Party "worked hard" very early.

The 2000 general election was in a three-legged position. In the end, Chen Shui-bian of the DPP was elected with a vote of 39.3%, and Song Chuyu, who was separated from the Kuomintang, was 36.8%. Lien Chan, nominated by the Kuomintang, fell to the third place and only 23.1%.

Now, if Guo Taiming, who withdrew from the Kuomintang, then announced his candidacy for 2020, he will inevitably have another group of players in addition to the blue and green showdown. Is it like the competition between Chen Shui-bian, Lien Chan and Song Chuyu in the 2000 election?

Lin Zhengxian explained that if we directly use the three strong teams in 2000 to apply the "New Three Kingdoms Era" in 2020, it would definitely be wrong. For example, Guo Taiming, who left the Kuomintang, did not equal Song Chuyu of that year. Han Kuo Yu nominated by the Kuomintang, did not equal Lien Zhan of that year. On the contrary, Han Kuo Yu is more like Song Chuyu of the year, especially for the military and public education votes. In just 20 years, Taiwan's political environment has changed a lot.

He analyzed that the current military and public education support Song Chuyu, who was currently in charge of the current military and public education support Han Kuo-yu, and the current military and public education support may not support the Kuomintang, because the DPP has "worked hard" very early.

Kuo Yu, Terry Gou, Tsai Ing-wen

Lin Zhengxian said that in the Green Camp group, Tsai Ing-wen is not the same as Chen Shui-bian back then. First, Tsai is competing for re-election, Chen Shui-bian is running for the first time, and Lee Teng-hui is also secretly assisting Pan. Second, Tsai is dealing with cross-strait and economic issues that may cause public grievances. If the economy is not handled well, it may be dragged down. In theory, the Cai poll should not be so high, but in the end, the Cai poll beat Han Kuo-yu.

He said that Han lost to Tsai not only because of the serious "Han Hei", but also because Han exposed too many weaknesses. At least he was criticized for his throne as soon as he became the mayor of Kaohsiung. Even if he won the party's primary election and was officially nominated, there were still shortcomings in the conditions of Tianxian.

If Han Kuo-yu is out of the election in 2020, will the Kuomintang completely collapse?

Lin Zhengxian said that, including former Kuomintang chairman Lien Chan and Zhu Lilun , they all represented the Kuomintang’s run for election and failed. In the past, Song Chuyu left the Kuomintang, took away a group of people and founded the People First Party, but the Kuomintang did not break up. The key point is that the Kuomintang has absolute confidence in Han Kuo-yu's victory this time. The enthusiasm and firm support of the "Korean fans" may not have been seen in previous elections. They spontaneously participated in the creation of momentum, not bought by spending money to mobilize. The Kuomintang has changed and is also sure that someone will always come out to lead the Kuomintang in the end.

In July 2019, the National Congress of the Kuomintang

For the current party chairman Wu Dunyi, will the pressure be greater if he does not return to power in 2020? He said that Wu Dunyi knew how to win in a surprise election every time, and he was very smart, but unfortunately the polls were not high and he could not realize his dreams.

Kuang Yu and Zhu Lilun

The possibility of "Han and Zhu matching"?

Lin Zhengxian said that of course he was optimistic. Zhu Lilun lost the election last time and made a comeback this time. Many voters will take advantage of this opportunity to restore Zhu justice and build consensus within the party. In addition, the "Korean fans" of steel cannot escape, and the number of Kuomintang members is already small. How can we get the light blue votes in the middle vote? It depends on Zhu Lilun, especially the votes of young people, "knowledge blue" and "economic blue". It depends on Zhu to attract it.