Cailianshe (Beijing, reporter Zhang Xiaochong) reported that the gold price of has continued to rise recently. Since the end of March, the gold price of New York Mercantile Exchange has increased by more than 10%, and recently it has broken through the $1,850/ounce mark, hitting a three-month high. Market insiders said that gold will continue to rebound in a phased manner in the short term, but against the background of the overall recovery of the global economy, the rebound height of gold prices may be limited.
Market insiders said that this round of gold rebound benefited from the steady increase in the expected inflation rate of the United States, and the trend of the long-term US Treasury bond yield and the USD index are weak. This round of gold price rebound started after the weakening of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.
In addition, the continued conflict between Pakistan and Israel and the dovish statement of the Federal Reserve in , , also provide momentum for rising gold prices, and most investors' expectations for gold are bullish. The Biden administration may announce a "truce" agreement with EU on the metal tariff dispute, which will also have certain benefits for gold prices in the short term.
Judging from the performance of ETF holdings , the world's largest gold ETF fund has increased its holdings by nearly 20 tons since May, which to a certain extent reflects that the market's current confidence in holding gold has begun to rebound. Market sentiment has improved significantly, so there is a possibility of further upward trend in precious metals .
Galaxy Futures research report believes that from a technical perspective, it is not ruled out that precious metal prices will hit recent highs, especially silver may hit the highs in 2021. However, after the contact is reached, the price may decline after the profit order is settled in a timely manner.
Short-term Fed statements have become the key to affect the trend
The minutes of the Fed's April meeting will be released on Wednesday night, and is expected to become the key to affect the trends of gold and the US dollar in the near future. The market expects the Fed to reiterate its easing position, and inflation is a temporary argument.
Ping An Securities strategy analyst Guo Zirui believes that the shift in the tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is the biggest risk of gold price trend. Before the Fed stated that it would reduce quantitative easing, the logic that favored gold prices still exists, and the phased rebound will continue. When the United States has not achieved universal vaccination and the employment market has not seen a significant improvement, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a dove-oriented attitude, and gold opportunities outweigh risks.
CICC Futures researcher Wang Yanqing told Cailianshe that the US dollar weakens in the short term, and the Federal Reserve continues to be dove-like statements, which may continue to provide support to precious metals. However, with the continuous advancement of vaccination in the medium and long term, the US economic recovery is still the general trend. The Federal Reserve may gradually reduce the scale of easing, and the real yield of US bonds and is limited further downward space, and precious metals may face a pullback risk.
market insiders also said that at present, U.S. employment is an important window to observe the sustainability of gold price rebound. It is expected that the U.S. employment data will continue to improve in the second half of the year. Against the backdrop of high inflation, if the Fed's attitude is fine-tuned, it will drive gold prices to fall again. In addition, the year-on-year growth rate of the US dollar index and the US CPI relative to the changes in the yield of the US 10-year Treasury bond are still important factors that affect the trend of gold prices in the future.
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