market trend afternoon
In the early trading of the Asian market on Wednesday (September 28), the US dollar index traded around 114.19; the US dollar made no progress in fluctuating trading on Tuesday, and fell from its strongest level in 20 years. Although the Fed's decision makers talked about further rate hikes, the appetite for riskier assets is still weak, and gold prices rebounded from a low of two and a half years, the imminent risk of interest rate hikes still exists; oil prices rebounded more than 2% from a nine-month low, benefiting from the restricted supply in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico before Hurricane Ian arrived.
Fundamental Analysis
Analysis of the main influencing factors of the market, the following aspects have a great impact on price trends.
First, in recent weeks, Fed officials have insisted that they will raise interest rates as much as possible to cool inflation, regardless of the rise in unemployment or a possible recession. Several Fed officials downplayed rising volatility in global markets on Monday (September 26) and reiterated that the priority remains to control inflation.
Second, Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester pointed out that financial market volatility will affect investor decisions, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate trends do affect the U.S. economy. "But as far as our goals are concerned, we will formulate our policies to restore price stability," she believes that controlling inflation is better than doing more than doing less.
Third, Juan Carlos Artigas, global research director of the World Gold Association , said in his latest report: "Given the number and extent of interest rate hikes that the Fed has implemented so far, we expect the pace of interest rate hikes to slow down, allowing the factors supporting the rise of gold to play a more important role. Moreover, other central banks are also firmly fighting inflation and defending the exchange rate of local currency in various countries, which should suppress the US dollar." Artigas added that as global central banks continue to tighten monetary policies, the risk of economic recession continues to increase, which should also provide some support for gold. Central bank demand also provides solid support for gold as they will continue to pursue asset diversification policies.
U.S. stocks closed, U.S. stocks fell deeper and deeper in a bear market on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 index hitting the lowest closing level in the past two years. Fed policy makers showed their willingness to raise interest rates further, and even risked the economy to fall into recession.
indicator S&P 500 has fallen about 24% since hitting a record high on January 3. Last week, the Fed hinted that interest rates could remain high in 2023, and the index gave up the only gains left in the summer rebound, hitting its lowest closing level since November 2020. The S&P 500 has fallen for six consecutive trading days, the longest-lasting decline since February 2020.
Overall, the recent hawkish rhetoric by Federal Reserve officials shows their determination to control inflation, and they must first control inflation regardless of the rise in unemployment rate or economic recession. For gold, the bulls are currently under pressure from two forces. One is the influence of the strong dollar. The Federal Reserve, which is constantly raising interest rates, has made interest-free gold unpopular. On the other hand, although inflation is high, there are already signs of slowing down, which is also a negative factor for gold with anti-inflation characteristics.
Gold technical analysis
pressure: 1647/1662 USD/oz
support: 1621/1611 USD/oz
Operation suggestions: 1647 USD/oz
Rebound in short
On Monday, gold price fell due to the opening of the USD in the early trading session. Although the decline was converged, it finally broke the bottom and hit the low again during the US session. Short-term short-term, below $1,647/ounce, look at operations in a short position, wait for an opportunity to intervene in short orders, and then turn to more operations in a more position.
Silver Technical Analysis
Pressure: 18.73/19.06/oz
Support: 18.31/18.03/oz
Operation Suggestion: 18.77/oz is regarded as the long-short dividing line operation
Affected by the strong US dollar and the decline in the stock index, the silver price also fell again on Monday. Currently, the trend has changed from a neutral range to a short range, and the trend has changed to a neutral and bearish situation. Intraday 18.76 USD/ounce is considered to be the long-short dividing line operation.
[The above content only represents personal opinions, does not represent the position of the platform, is for reference only, and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Firm your thinking and do a good job in corresponding risk control. 】
Red Lion Zhifu: Zheng Hong
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