Although the US economic data has declined, it has performed strongly compared to other developed countries. With the increasing global economic uncertainty, investors continue to prefer the US dollar, and gold as a safe tool for preserving value is no longer attractive. Pressure

Gold market analysis:

Gold fluctuations expanded after a sharp rebound on Thursday (29th), falling back to $1,649 per ounce, and finally closed at $1,668 per ounce. Although the US economic data has declined, it has performed strongly compared to other developed countries. With the increasing global economic uncertainty, investors continue to prefer the US dollar, and gold as a safe tool for preserving value is no longer attractive.

Dollar Index :

Dollar Index slumped more than 1% on Wednesday 28, and the early gains on Thursday 29th as the pound broke through $1.1 and the renminbi rose after the Chinese Communist Party authorities warned against excessive speculation. Although the US dollar has fallen, its strong fundamentals lies in the fact that the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the economic performance are stronger than that of other countries. In addition, White House National Economic Commission director Brian Dees rejected ideas similar to the 1985 currency agreement to weaken the dollar, adding that the good performance of the U.S. economy was an important factor driving the dollar higher.

Overview of the three major U.S. stock indexes:

Amid continued concerns about tightening financial conditions and slowing economic growth, U.S. stocks opened high and closed low. In regular trading on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index rose 1.9%, the S&P 500 rose 2%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.1%, and all three benchmark indexes have shown a slight increase before Friday. This quarter, Dow Jones and S&P have suffered three consecutive quarter losses for the first time since 2015, while Nasdaq is expected to suffer three consecutive quarters of losses.

US economic data:

first, As of the week ending September 24, the number of first-time unemployment claims in the United States fell by 16,000 to 193,000, the lowest since the end of April, far below market expectations of 215,000, indicating an increasingly tight labor market and adding more room for Fed rate hikes . After non-seasonal adjustments, the number of initial unemployment benefits fell by 12,642 to 156,060, with Michigan (-5,674), New Jersey (-1,521) and New York (-1,266) showing significant declines. The average number of applicants in the 4-week period, with a relatively stable data, decreased by 8,750 to 207,000 compared to the previous week.

Second, US GDP shrinks by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2022, consistent with the second estimate. After a 1.6% decline in the first quarter, the US economy enters a recession from a technical point of view. Declining private inventory and fixed investment were the main factors that dragged down in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the upward correction of consumer spending is offset by the downward correction of exports. In addition, the Fed recently predicted that it will grow only 0.2% in 2022, as a strong rate hike of is expected to trigger a sharp decline in economic activity.

Third, according to a survey of lender by mortgage giant Freddie Mac, the average interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgages climbed to 6.7% this week, the highest since July 2007, up from 6.29% last week and 3.01% a year ago.

Based on the above conclusions, we found that the fluctuations of the US dollar index have expanded abnormally a few days ago, fluctuating between 112.61 and 114.87. It also mentioned that if the high point cannot be crossed, the trend of bullishness may be reversed. This is because the expansion of the fluctuation is abnormal fluctuation. There has not been such a large fluctuation since the rise on September 13, which shows that the probability of large funds being out is high. Now the US dollar index has fallen below the important low of 112.61 in the range, and is now fluctuating around 112.00. The weakening of the US dollar will help other assets such as: gold, crude oil, stock index, and non-US currencies leave the previous bottom zone. In the past two weeks, you can closely observe the possibility of other assets becoming stronger. In the past few days, we have always believed that the US stock index will rebound, which is caused by excessive market sentiment that has led to us being bullish. Even so, the overall situation of short fundamentals cannot be changed, which means that this wave of rebound may be short-lived. If there are losses in stocks, you can first appear in the rebound by reducing losses in this wave of rebound.

Gold technical analysis:

upper pressure: 1674 / 1685 / 1692 USD/oz

Lower support: 1665 / 1657 / 1644 USD/oz

Operation suggests that
H1 trend is too long. It is recommended to return to the support area and follow the trend when rising again.If the rebound falls below $1,657/ounce, it will not rise twice, and the probability of turning short or fluctuating is high.

waits for the price to return to the range of $1657~1665/ounce, and once again breaks through $1665/ounce, and then moves more often. If you want to break through the $1674/ounce long, keep the stop loss and keep the range of $1664~1667/ounce, using the support pressure point as a reference for stop loss and stop profit. Stop loss and stop profit can be shown in two batches. Be sure to set the stop loss and stop profit before entering the market.

Silver Technical Analysis:

Overhead Pressure: 19.00 / 19.20 / 19.38 USD/oz
Underlying Support: 18.75 / 18.47 / 18.24 USD/oz

Operation Recommendation

The trend of H1 is neutral and the price pattern is relatively large. It is recommended to return to the support area and operate more often when rising again.

waits for the price to return to the range of US$18.47~18.75/ounce, breaking through US$18.75/ounce, and taking advantage of the trend to operate more. If you break through $19.20/ounce, you should chase long, keep the stop loss and keep the range of $18.95 to $19.00/ounce. Use the support pressure point as a reference for stop loss and stop profit. Stop loss and stop profit can be shown in two batches. Be sure to set the stop loss and stop profit before entering the market.

[The above content only represents personal opinions and is for reference only. We must firmly adhere to our own ideas and do a good job in corresponding risk control. 】