As the last non-farm employment report released before the Fed meeting in November, the report released on Friday showed that the number of new non-farm employment in September was higher than expected and the unemployment rate was lower than expected.

Federal 11 next meeting in November rate hike again 75 basis points seems to be a foregone conclusion.

is the last non-farm employment report released before the Federal Reserve meeting in November. The report released on Friday showed that the number of new non-farm employment in September was higher than expected and the unemployment rate was lower than expected. Nick Timiraos, a senior Fed reporter who is known as the "New Federal Reserve News Agency", later posted a message, pointing out:

"The steady employment report in September will keep the Fed from approving another big rate hike at the meeting next month, because (Fed) officials seek to raise borrowing costs to a high enough level, make the labor market weaker and slow down inflationary pressure."

Although it does not explain how much the Fed will raise interest rates in November, Timiraos pointed out that at the last meeting in September, Fed officials were already considering that the remaining time of this year would raise interest rates by another 125 basis points. To reach this level, they may have to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November, and then 50 basis points in December.

Timiras explained that Fed officials believed last year that the price increase was caused by supply chain bottlenecks and strong demand stimulated by government fiscal stimulus, but now they are worried that even if energy prices and the prices of used cars and other commodities that rose last year, the tight supply-strength labor market could keep prices rising in the coming years.

Timiras also mentioned that Fed officials were optimistic about a successful soft landing, believing that a less radical rate hike would cool down the labor market and would not cause a significant increase in unemployment. The high inflation levels in recent months have sent Fed officials less optimistic signals. For example, Federal Reserve Director Waller said that the smaller the path of an already narrow soft landing becomes and the longer the high inflation continues, the more radical the Fed will have to be.

Timiras' judgment on the prospects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is consistent with market expectations. After the non-farm employment report was released, the "Federal Observation Tool" of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) showed that the U.S. federal funds rate futures trading market expected the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in November exceeded 80%, and the current probability has fallen slightly to 79%, and the probability of 50 basis points is only 21%.

Timiras has maintained an accurate judgment on the Fed's decisions recently.

Wall Street News mentioned that after the announcement in September that the US CPI growth in August was strong beyond expectations, Timiraos issued a statement saying that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes by at least 75 basis points have stabilized, and the CPI data destroyed the hope of the Federal Reserve's slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes. As expected, the Federal Reserve meeting in September also raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the third consecutive time as scheduled.

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