What other important data does senior foreign exchange trading players look at in addition to analyzing the financial calendar?
TigerWit 09-05
Follow
For foreign exchange players, many people are very keen on the analysis and interpretation of the financial calendar. When trading, they often keep a close eye on the changes in the financial calendar. The announcement of every economic indicator will be quite exciting, positive, negative, negative, negative, positive... ...
For foreign exchange players, many people are very keen on the analysis and interpretation of the financial calendar. When trading, they often keep a close eye on the changes in the financial calendar. When publishing every economic indicator will be quite excited, positive, negative, negative, negative, positive... ...
is immersed in the analysis and judgment of the financial calendar every day, and is very busy, but the final result is that whether it is short-term or long-term, it feels that the results are very little. Therefore, we always complain about the divergence between the fundamentals of the foreign exchange market and the market. Sometimes we even want to trade in the reverse direction, and buy the decline if it is good, and buy the rise if it is bad. The result is still a bamboo basket of water and a short battle.
For foreign exchange players like the above, they only know one thing: "Financial indicators will have an impact on foreign exchange trends", but they ignore a more important point: "The foreign exchange market is an extremely complex nonlinear system." How to understand the above two sentences
? It's very simple. First of all, the rise and fall of the foreign exchange market will be affected by various economic indicators and economic parameters, which is certain; secondly, the data released by financial departments and financial survey institutions of various countries every day must be combined to play a certain guiding role in the foreign exchange market.
basically thinks so about the first point, but for the second point, some people often ignore or even oppose it.
In the foreign exchange market, arbitrarily judges the trend of a certain currency because of an indicator and a parameter. This behavior is extremely dangerous. Rather than saying that these people predict the market based on indicators, they are gambling with their own accounts!
The foreign exchange market is a very complex chaotic system. There are many factors that can trigger the appreciation and depreciation of currency in this system. Moreover, the relationship between various factors is complicated and cannot be determined by one or two factors. It often depends on the overall economic level of the market and the psychological expectations of market traders. Although factors such as
GDP, CPI, interest rates, unemployment rate and other factors have a relatively critical impact on foreign exchange, the market will never cause the exchange rate to rise or fall due to a single data.
Does that mean that the foreign exchange market cannot have the rules and rules of currency trends? The answer is no.
When a country's economy is shrinking or even regressing as a whole, central bank interest rate hikes cannot save the country's currency depreciation trend. Because at this time, investors in the market have completely lost confidence in this currency, and no matter how strong the government takes to save the market, it is futile; and when a country's overall economy is in a healthy and upward development trend, one or two negative news cannot discourage investors' confidence in continuing to hold the country's currency.
At this time, some major measures taken by the country, such as interest rate cuts, are essentially to enable the country's economy to continue to develop on a healthy track, and will not suppress economic development. This is exactly what we often say, "The flaws do not hide the merits."
To a certain extent, the government of any country wants its economy to develop continuously, healthily and stably. The various economic policies and measures to coordinate the market are all to correct the problems and disadvantages exposed in economic development. Therefore, to a certain extent, all policies adopted by the government are good news for the economy. It is just that monetary policy, as a crucial part of a country's economy, will adopt different strategies as the country's overall economic policies are different.
When the economy is overheated and grows too fast, appropriately raising interest rates and appreciation of the country's currency will also promote the country's economy in the long run; when the economy is sluggish, appropriately lowering interest rates and depreciating the country's currency will be able to expand exports and encourage people to invest and start businesses, which will still promote the economy.
Therefore, when we analyze the currency trend, we must analyze the country's monetary policy based on various economic indicators. Only in this way can we accurately grasp the trend and trends of the country's currency.
Top ten foreign exchange traders must pay attention to financial data
1, non-agricultural employment data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released on the first Friday of each month, and the non-farm employment data include the growth rate of the non-farm employment population, the unemployment rate, and the average hourly wage. Non-agricultural data is a lagging indicator. Because labor conditions and consumption expenditure are closely related, non-agricultural data are widely regarded as an important signal of whether the overall economic environment of the United States is operating healthily.
2, GDP (gross domestic product). GDP is the broadest measure of a country's economic activity level and is also the main basis for judging whether a country's economy is operating healthily. GDP reflects the market value of all goods and services produced in a country's economy after inflation is removed annually. Generally, GDP is divided into three announcements: GDP budget, GDP initial value, and GDP correction value. Since the GDP budget is first announced, the impact on the market is often the greatest. The GDP is published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3, Federal Funds Rate/Federal Open Market Commission Statement. The Federal Reserve announces eight times a year, mainly referring to the overnight interbank lending rate set by the Federal Reserve, which is an important factor affecting foreign currency evaluation. Usually, the announcement of interest rate resolutions is immediately reflected in market fluctuations, so the Federal Open Market Committee statement is often issued with interest rate resolutions, while the Federal Open Market Committee statement is mainly focused on the future in order to reduce the volatility brought by interest rate resolutions to the current market.
4, retail sales data. Retail sales data is the most extensive and intuitive data that reflects consumer spending, while consumer spending reflects the overall economic situation of the country and is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Demographics.
5, CPI/PPI (Consumer Price Index/Producer Price Index). The Ministry of Labor announced that it is a leading indicator of inflation.
6, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index/ISM Manufacturing Index. It is a leading indicator of whether the economy is healthy, compiled by surveying 400 companies per month. If the ISM index is greater than 50, it indicates that the manufacturing industry is booming, and if it is less than 50, it indicates that the manufacturing industry is shrinking. Published by the American Supply Management Association.
7. Sales of houses to be sold/selling of new housing/selling of existing housing. The United States Association of Real Estate Brokers releases data on the U.S. housing market every month. New housing sales and existing housing sales are both leading indicators of whether the economy is operating healthily, because housing sales will cause a widespread chain reaction.
8. Trade difference. According to the Economic Analysis Bureau, the trade difference is the difference between imported goods and imported goods. A trade surplus indicates that the amount of exported goods or export services is greater than the amount of imported goods or services.
9, TIC (Net long-term capital inflow). It is announced by the U.S. Treasury Department every month, indicating the inflows and outflows of domestic and foreign capital. The demand for US securities and the demand for US dollar are directly related, because foreigners who want to buy a country's stock must first buy their own currency, which will affect the trend of the US dollar.
10, Euro interest rate resolution/GBP interest rate resolution. Published by the ECB/Bank of England.
Description: Any investment in the financial market has risks, and this article is only shared as foreign exchange trading knowledge. Warm reminder: trading is risky and investment should be cautious.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-