overnight, spot gold suddenly suffered a huge amount of funds to suppress the sell orders in the short term, falling slightly above the $1,800 mark. fell nearly 18 US dollars from the day-high , but then soon rebounded from the low level. Gold hit its highest level since August 4 on Monday at $1,822.92. In the early trading of today's Asian market, gold rose slightly and is currently hovering around US$1,813.
Gold is mainly boosted by a weakening US dollar, but the gains are slower as some investors remained on the wait-and-see sidelines before the August non-farm employment data will be released later this week.
USD weakened
Survey released on Tuesday showed that single-family house prices in 20 major cities in the United States rose in June compared with the same period last year, with the highest increase.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller House Price Composite Index rose 19.1% in the 12 months to June, up from 17.1% after the upward correction last month, marking the largest annual gain in the survey's 20-year history.
Subsequently released another data showed that U.S. Consumer confidence index was 113.8 in August, the lowest level since February , with an expected 124. The July data was revised to 125.1. The prosperity index based on consumers' evaluation of prosperity and labor market conditions fell from 157.2 last month to 147.3.
Some institutions said that although the recovery of the new crown epidemic and inflation concerns have hit confidence, it is too early to conclude that such a decline will lead to significant cuts in consumers' spending in the coming months.
Affected by this, US dollar fell to a low of 92.40, the lowest level since August 6 , but then rose sharply from the low level by 35 points and hit a daily high of 92.75.
Source: Jintou.com
1 Before the opening of the US market , spot gold suddenly encountered huge amounts of funds to suppress the sell orders in the short term, falling slightly above the $1,800 mark, falling nearly 18 US dollars from the day high. Then, boosted by the weakening of the US dollar, gold quickly rebounded from a low level. Gold hit its highest level since August 4 on Monday at $1,822.92.
Source: Jintou.com
Data shows that COMEX most active Gold futures contract Beijing time on August 31, 21:07, Beijing time, 2614 lots were instantly traded on the trading market, with a total value of US$471 million.
Do Ming Securities said that Feder will pull the trigger, but monetary easing will not shrink significantly in the next few months, so gold prices should perform well in the end.
In addition to the US dollar, investors also need to pay attention to the development of the situation in Afghanistan .
And this trading day will usher in "small non-agricultural" ADP data, and the market expectations are relatively optimistic.
"small non-agricultural" is coming
Hong Kong time on Wednesday 20:15, Hong Kong time, investors will usher in the US ADP employment report in August, which is the most concerned economic indicator of the day. Authoritative media surveys show that the number of ADP employment in the United States in August is expected to increase by 625,000 , a much higher increase than last month.
It is worth noting that the number of ADP employment in the United States in July was far lower than expected, setting the weakest increase since February.
Specific data shows that the number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 330,000 in July, and an expected increase of 690,000. After the July ADP data was released, the dollar index fell, while spot gold rose in the short term.
analysts pointed out that if the US ADP employment data in August is once again far below expectations, the US dollar may be suppressed again, which will drive gold prices to rise. However, if the ADP data is better than expected, the US dollar is expected to continue its rebound trend.
Gold price is underestimated by 12%?
This month, as gold prices rebounded from their lows over four months, more and more institutions began to change their views on gold.Some analysts believe that under the pressure of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, gold was undervalued by 12% . As the policy gradually becomes clear and inflation levels continue to rise, gold prices are expected to fill the gap. Shah, head of research at
isdomTree, said that considering the U.S. dollar, interest rate and inflation , gold price should be around $2,000 per ounce . However, the Fed plans to reduce bond purchases by the end of this year, and the possibility of hiking rate hikes by the end of 2022, may limit gold prices in the future. He expects gold prices to rise to $1,970 by the fourth quarter of 2021, and then flattened in the second quarter of 2022, falling back to $1,860 .
The trend of the gold market depends largely on the results of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in September. Some have expected the Fed to release a detailed plan on how to reduce monthly bond purchases.
However, in addition to the Fed's reduction in bond purchase plans, inflation prospects will also be an important factor driving gold prices to rise.
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