At 21:30 Beijing time on February 3, Beijing time, the US Department of Labor will release non-farm employment data in January. The market generally expects that The first non-farm data after Trump takes office will perform strongly. Among the 21 institutions, only Faba and Wells Fargo expects that the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in January is less than the previous value of 156,000, and there are only four institutions that expect the unemployment rate to improve.
Zhitong Finance compiled 21 institutions' forecasts as follows:
After the seasonal adjustment in the United States, the non-farm employment population increased by 156,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, and the average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, the fastest in 7 years.
The Wall Street Journal said that workers' wage growth is the highlight of the employment report in December, and the market's expectations for another sharp increase in wages in January are very high. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect average hourly wages in the U.S. to rise by 0.3% month-on-month in January.
In addition, the U.S. unemployment rate hit a 10-year low in December last year. If the unemployment rate falls further, it means that the supply of available employees continues to decrease and the labor market is becoming tight; if the unemployment rate remains stable or rises, it means that workers who have withdrawn from the labor force are returning and have not yet reached the level of full employment.
Overall, employment growth slowed down in the last few months of 2016 but remained healthy. It is necessary to see whether this report can continue the healthy trend of the employment market. If the non-farm report in January continues to improve, the Fed will be under pressure to raise interest rates further.
The Federal Reserve announced on February 2 that it would keep interest rates unchanged and said that the job market is still strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering near recent lows, at or close to the level that many policymakers believe responding to full employment, inflation has risen and economic confidence has increased, but it has not specified the timing of the next rate hike. Before the release of
, the US dollar index stood firm at 100 points and is now at 100.06, up 23 points, up 0.23%.
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