1
What is US non-farm data?
"Non-agricultural" refers to the employment-related data of the agricultural sector, self-employed employees and non-profit organization after excluding the number of employed people, which can basically reflect the actual employment and economic situation of the US economy. Published by the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics Bureau.
release time on the first Friday of each month, and the US release time is 8:30 am Eastern Time (Sunday Saving Time) and 9:30 am ( Winter Saving Time ), respectively, and the corresponding Beijing time is 20:30 and 21:30 respectively.
2
How is non-agricultural employment data collected?
Non-agricultural employment data are mainly composed of two independent surveys, one part is obtained from family surveys, and the other part is obtained from corporate surveys. The family survey is a survey conducted by investigators first conducting the current population survey (Qileshui official WeChat public platform ID: qlhclub) and then conducting a visit survey on the employment status of 60,000 families in the United States by phone and email, and then the unemployment rate is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Enterprise survey refers to investigators conducting surveys of companies from 330,000 companies and government departments, including 500 different industries.
The two surveys cover more than 40 million employed people, accounting for nearly half of the total non-agricultural employment population. The survey data include: the number of new jobs in non-agricultural areas, salary trends in different industries, employment status, weekly working hours, etc.
From the above two channels, investigators can compile widely representative employment data. How can changes in non-agricultural employment data affect the nerves of all parties in the market?
3
Non-agricultural employment data is an important indicator for judging the economic cycle
The US Bureau of Economic Survey and Statistics (NBER) defines recession in this way: the growth rate of economic activities such as industrial output, employment, and actual wages has continued to slow down for several months. From a cyclical perspective, the economy is between the peak and the trough.
From this we can see that the key to determining whether the economy is expanding or contracting is to observe the monthly economic data. However, since industrial output data are generally released quarterly and have weak timeliness, the monthly data that can measure the overall employment situation - non-agricultural employment data, has become the most important indicator for judging economic cyclicality.
For example, the economy has been recession for 6 months, but after the non-agricultural data is released, it shows that employment has recovered and exceeded the previous low point. That has been reversed from the perspective of the economic cycle. The previous low point is the trough, and the economy will continue to improve in the future, which will greatly boost market confidence.
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4
Non-agricultural employment data is highly correlated with economic performance
First of all, from the simplest basic knowledge of economics, the improvement of non-agricultural data means that the economy is getting better. The output of the non-agricultural industry accounts for 80% of the total U.S. output, and the increase in non-agricultural employment means that the company has expanded production and is willing to hire more workers to produce. Newly hired people will have more money to spend on spending and consumption.
The US economic growth is mainly driven by domestic demand, and consumption accounts for as high as 70% of the US GDP, so an increase in consumption expenditure means the overall improvement of the US economy. Therefore, non-farm data is a key indicator for predicting economic growth and CPI levels.
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Why China does not look at non-agricultural employment data
China's economy has long been export-oriented, and exports are supported by manufacturing, so the PMI index, which can better reflect the prosperity of the manufacturing industry, obviously has a greater impact in China's economic data. The latest released manufacturing PMI in March rebounded sharply to 50.2, ending the eight consecutive months below the boom-bust line level, indicating that China's strong rebound and return to its expansion state.
China's industrial structure is mainly labor-intensive production and is in a huge stage of industrial upgrading and transformation. The increase in employment rate cannot reflect the prosperity of China's economy as a whole. The elimination of backward production capacity and the increase in unemployment rate caused by zombie enterprises is actually a good thing for the economy.
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0 Market parties use non-agricultural data as the basis for economic forecasts
Non-agricultural data is the most important parameter in the economic modeling process.The Federal Reserve refers to non-
agricultural data to determine future interest rate policies, institutional investors refer to non-farm data to determine their own position and the direction of small holding positions. Economists and analysts predict the future economic trend based on non-farm data.
As the most important economic data, non-agricultural data is one of the most important input variables for all parties when making decisions and is the weather vane of the market. Whenever actual non-agricultural data is released, non-agricultural data will affect the nerves of the market. The difference between its expected value and the actual value will have an amplification effect on the market. The larger the difference, the greater the amplification effect, which can trigger violent fluctuations in the capital market.
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