The number of non-farm employment in the United States increased by 678,000 in February, higher than expected and previous values ​​for two consecutive months, setting a record for the largest increase since July last year. The number of non-agricultural employment in January and

The number of non-farm employment in the United States increased by 678,000 in February, higher than expected and previous values ​​for two consecutive months, setting a record for the largest increase since July last year. The number of non-agricultural employment in January and December last year was revised upward, with the number of new non-agricultural employment in January up from 467 to 481,000; the number of new non-agricultural employment in December last year was revised upward to 588,000 again. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in February, better than expected and the previous value, close to 3.5% before the epidemic, and remains the lowest level since the epidemic. On Wednesday and Thursday, the Federal Reserve Chairman of the Federal Reserve expressed support for the March rate hike of 25 basis points in the Senate and House of Representatives Congress. As the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March, the employment report in February performed strongly, providing support for the Fed's expectations of multiple interest rate hikes this year.

non-agricultural employment data show that labor participation rate and the proportion of employed people both rose slightly. From an industry perspective, the overall performance was good in February. In addition to the decline in the number of new jobs in the government industry, the number of new jobs in the commodity production and service production industry has increased significantly. Among them, the number of new jobs in the construction industry increased to 60,000; the number of new jobs in the education and health industry increased by 112,000; and the number of new jobs in the leisure and hotel industry increased by 179,000. From the overall perspective of industry data, the credibility of the increase in employment in February was verified. The average weekly working hours in manufacturing continue to grow, and although the labor market has been significantly repaired, the labor shortage problem still exists. The average hourly wage increased by $0.1 compared with January, and the growth rate slowed down significantly, indicating that the current high salary is no longer the main reason for the spiral rise of inflation .

unemployment data also performed strongly. From an industry perspective, except for the wholesale and retail trade, transportation and public utilities, finance and education and medical services, the number of unemployed people has increased positively, but it is still significantly less than the number of unemployed people in January, and the number of unemployed people in other industries has decreased significantly. However, the duration of unemployment has increased, the number of short-term unemployment has decreased, and the number of long-term unemployment has increased, indicating that the unemployed people in the short term have a high willingness to return to the labor market. On the contrary, the people who have been unemployed for a long time have dragged down the overall employment data. The employment report performed well in 2022 for two consecutive months, once again boosting the market's confidence in the full recovery of the labor market this year. Although the February report may not have reflected the impact of the geopolitical problem on the labor market, the epidemic has gradually improved, the gradual opening of epidemic restrictions in various states, and high inflation has raised the economic demand for households, all of which have promoted the full recovery of the employment market this year. Judging from the market reaction, the February employment report will not have an impact on the Fed's 25 basis points rate hike in March. After the non-farm data was released, the Fed's observation tool predicted that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in March was 98.8% hike in March has not changed.

1. Data overview

The United States' non-agricultural data in the second month of 2022 once again far exceeded expectations, with 678,000 new jobs, far higher than the expected 403,000 and the previous value of 481,000. The biggest increase since July last year indicates that the labor market remains strong.

2 unemployment rate was 3.8%, continuing to fall, better than expected by 3.9%, the lowest level since February 2020, and the unemployment data has gradually approached the pre-epidemic level.

20 revised the number of non-agricultural employment in January and December last year, with the number of new non-agricultural employment in January slightly up from 467,000 to 481,000; the number of new non-agricultural employment in December up to 588,000 again. After the correction, the number of new job reports in February was 92,000 higher than in January.

2. Employment data

2 labor participation rate and the proportion of employed people both rose slightly. The labor participation rate rose to 62.3%, a record high since March 2020; the proportion of employed people rose to 59.9%, returning to the level in March 2020.

htmlNews in the private sector in February were 654,000, a significant increase compared with January data, further confirming the strong performance of the US job market in February.

htmlThe number of new jobs in the commodity production and service production industry increased significantly in February. Among them, the number of new jobs in the construction industry increased to 60,000, an increase of 53,000 compared with last month; the education and health care industry increased by 112,000, an increase of 79,000 from January; financial activities increased by 35,000; and leisure and hotel industry increased by 179,000. The number of new jobs in the government industry fell compared with January.

htmlThe number of people who can only find part-time jobs and loose jobs in February has increased.

html In February, the average weekly working hours of the private non-agricultural sector and the average weekly working hours of the manufacturing industry both increased, up 0.1 and 0.4 hours compared with January. This shows that while the labor market recovers, working hours are also increasing, and the number of employed people still has room for growth.

htmlAverage hourly wages in the US private sector rose slightly in February, up .03% month-on-month and 5.13% year-on-year, up eleven consecutive months, up .03% year-on-year. Although hourly wages have slowed significantly, the labor market still competes in a way that raises wages.

3. Unemployment data

html In February, the number of unemployed people who completed temporary work, new entry and re-entered labor market decreased, and the number of unemployed people who retired increased slightly. This shows that more people are back in the labor market and improve the credibility of unemployment data in February.

2, the number of unemployed people in wholesale and retail trade, transportation and public utilities, finance and education and medical services showed positive growth, but the growth was significantly less than January. The number of unemployed people in other industries has decreased significantly, with the largest number of unemployed people in the leisure and hospitality and other services industries.

htmlU.S. unemployment duration increased in February, but was still lower than last December level, indicating that the labor market is still performing strongly.

2, the number of unemployed people who are less than 5 weeks decreased, while the number of unemployed people who are more than 27 weeks increased. The proportion of unemployed people returning to the labor market in the short term is higher, while those who have been unemployed for a long time are less willing to return to the labor market.

htmlIn February, the unemployment rate considering passive unemployment fell to 4.7%, indicating that the unemployed have increased their willingness to re-employment and more people are willing to return to the labor market; the unemployment rate considering marginal unemployment rose slightly to 7.2%, but is still lower than 7.3% in December last year, and its performance remains strong.

4. Employment Change Diffusion Index

All months of employment changes have increased. The number of non-agricultural employment people has far exceeded expectations for two consecutive months. The market is very optimistic about the prospects of this year's employment market and is confident that it will return to the pre-epidemic level.

This article is from Yide Elite Hui