The number of non-farm employment in the United States increased by 531,000 in October, exceeding expectations of 450,000, the largest increase since July this year. August and September all non-agricultural employment numbers were revised upward, and September’s new non-agricultural employment numbers were revised up to 312,000, which was still far lower than September’s market expectations; August’s new non-agricultural employment numbers were revised up to 483,000. The unemployment rate continued to remain low in October, falling to 4.6%, hitting a new low since March last year. Following the continued weakness of non-agricultural employment data in August and September, although the October non-agricultural employment report is not very pleasant, it also gives the market a little comfort. But compared with before the epidemic, there are still 420 fewer jobs in the United States. The possibility of a complete recovery of the US job market this year is low. Next year, as the impact of the epidemic weakens, the economic recovery accelerates, and the employment market may experience significant growth. After the data of
was released, the index once rose to a new high since September and then fell back. Gold fell in the short term by $6 and then fluctuated upward and closed around 1820. The October non-farm data set the expectation of Fed rate hike in advance, but the problem of the employment market still not being able to fully recover this year is still there, and the rise in average hourly wages will also increase pressure on inflation . By industry, employment in commodity production and service production is still in positive growth, with the leisure and hotel industry with better performance in a consistent increase of 164,000, an increase of 2.4 million jobs so far this year. However, the government industry is still in a downturn in employment, but it has improved significantly compared with the September data. The number of employed people has increased and the average weekly working hours have also decreased, which has alleviated supply pressure. However, the labor participation rate of is the same as in September, indicating that people's enthusiasm for returning to the labor market needs to be improved. Unemployment data has been performing well, with the number of unemployed people in temporary and permanent jobs decreasing, and the duration of unemployment has also decreased. The number of unemployed people in various industries continues to decrease, indicating that workers are gradually returning to the labor market. As the impact of the epidemic is controlled, if the employment growth trend remains, it is expected to reach the "full employment" required by the Federal Reserve next year, and will be more favorable to the US dollar under the expected rate hike of next year.
1. Data overview
1 Non-agricultural employment population increased by 531,000 in October, exceeding expectations and previous values, setting the largest increase since July this year. From the data, it can be seen that the non-agricultural employment data in August and September are largely affected by delta virus . With the filling of employment, the impact of delta virus on employment is gradually decreasing. However, the U.S. job market still has 4.2 million fewer jobs than before the epidemic.
10 unemployment rate continued to fall to 4.6%, hitting a new low since March 2020. The continued decline in unemployment data has also boosted the recovery between the employment markets.
8 and September non-agricultural employment data were revised up at the same time, Department of Labor revised up from 194,000 to 312,000 for the United States in September, which was still lower than the previous month's expectations, but the gap narrowed significantly; the number of new non-agricultural employment in August was revised up to 483,000 again, far lower than the August expectations.
2. Employment data
In October, the US labor participation rate was once again lower than expected by 61.7%, the same as last month's value. The proportion of employed people continues to rise, setting a new highest level since April this year.
00 new jobs in the private sector in October were 824,000, a sharp rebound compared with the September data, but the surge was still low compared with July.
From the industry perspective, the number of new jobs in commodity production and service production continued to rise in October. Although the number of new jobs in the government is still in negative growth, it has decreased compared with the decrease in September, a decrease of 73,000. Among them, the number of people who are most popular in leisure and hotels increased by 164,000, and 2.4 million people were hired so far this year. The construction industry increased by 44,000; the manufacturing industry increased by 60,000; and the transportation and warehousing industry increased by 54,000.
10 October, the number of people who can only find part-time jobs and the number of people who have relaxed work decreased at the same time, setting a new low level since the epidemic and gradually returning to the level before the epidemic. This shows that more and more workers are shifting from temporary work to permanent work.
10 In October, the average weekly working hours of the private non-agricultural sector and the average weekly working hours of manufacturing have been lowered for the first time since July this year, at 34.7 hours and 40.3 hours respectively. This shows that as the number of employed people increases, the situation of increasing working hours maintaining the manufacturing level is gradually improving.
00 The average hourly wage of the private sector in the United States continued to rise in October, up 0.36% month-on-month and 4.9% year-on-year. The average hourly wage reached more than $30 for seven consecutive months, and it hit a new high. With the vaccination and the impact of the epidemic has weakened, the role of high wages has gradually emerged, attracting more workers. But the problem of labor shortage still exists in the short term, and the problem of high wages leading to higher costs and thus rising prices will continue.
3. Unemployment data
1 October completed temporary work and the number of unemployed people in the labor market today decreased. The number of unemployed people who have resigned and newly entered the labor market has increased. This shows that some people are still worried about the epidemic and resigning after retiring, and the impact of the epidemic on the labor market has not yet dissipated.
10 October only the mining industry showed positive growth, while the number of unemployed people in other industries decreased significantly. The manufacturing industry, which increased unemployment in September, also saw a decline in October. Compared with September, the decline in unemployment in October was slightly lower than in September, and the significant decrease in unemployment in September was due to the withdrawal of a large number of workers from the labor market, thus reducing unemployment levels. The largest decline in unemployment in education and medical services in October shows that as schools return to school, more and more teachers can return to their original positions.
0 The duration of unemployment in the United States fell again in October, verifying the credibility of the continued low unemployment rate. This shows that the number of people who are unemployed due to the impact of the epidemic is significantly reduced.
1 October, the number of people who had lost their jobs for less than 15 weeks and more than 27 weeks declined, indicating that the number of people who were unemployed due to the Delta virus is gradually decreasing in the short term. Most of the people who were unemployed due to the epidemic have entered the labor market.
10 In October, the unemployment rate, which considers negative unemployment and marginal unemployment, fell again, and the continued decline in unemployment data once again verified the credibility of the unemployment rate to remain low.
4. Employment change diffusion index
1, June and December all rose, and the employment diffusion index continued to decline in March. August and September’s weak non-agricultural data hit people’s confidence in the recovery of the labor market, but October’s data provided a reversal signal, rekindling the expectation of labor market recovery.
This article is from Yide Elite Hui
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