The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has arrived on the 220th day. At 15:00 on September 30, Moscow time, Russia will hold a signing ceremony for the new territory's entry into Russia in the St. George Hall of the Greater Kremlin. At the same time, the leak of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline has not been investigated yet. Although Kercht Palace spokesman Peskov said that the leak of the Nord Stream 2 and the natural gas pipeline cannot be ruled out as a terrorist attack, it is almost impossible for Russia or Germany to obtain conclusive evidence.
Of course, for Russia now, what is important is not the investigation of Nord Stream 2, but the problem of entering Russia in four places in Ukraine first. Russian President Putin will speak at the ceremony on September 30, which means that Russia's territory will expand by about 100,000 square kilometers. In addition, Azov will also become the Russian inland sea with the addition of Donetsk , Zaporoze and Khlsong .
However, for Russia, there is bad news. The situation of dividends, a place where military strategists must compete, is in danger. The Russian army may lose this portal into the central part of Luhansk Oblast.
At present, the Russian army not only retreated in Kharkov , but the Ukrainian attack may still give the Russian army more pain, which directly shows a huge problem. The Russian Aerospace Forces' ground attack capabilities are really bad.
▲State chart of the winning man on September 29, the Ukrainian army surrounded the winning man from four directions
First, let’s pay attention to the fighting of the winning man. After the Kharkov retreat, the Ukrainian army organized superior forces to besiege Chongliman, a strategic fortress in the northern region of Donetsk. The situation in Chongliman took a sharp decline on Wednesday. The Ukrainian army divided into four groups to attack Chongliman from four directions in southeast, west and north. As of September 29, the Ukrainian army had controlled Coloddiaceh in the north, Chandrikholov in the west and Dibalova in the south.
▲The last hole of the "Honor Man Pocket", and the supply line of the Hongliman defender is being besieged by the Ukrainian army. In the eastern part of the Hongliman, the Ukrainian army is launching a fierce attack on the last hole of the "Honor Man Pocket" from both north and south directions, and it is also the only remaining supply line and retreat route of the Hongliman garrison.
The Russian army and the Russian coalition stationed in Chongliman are naturally very clear about what the last supply line and retreat route mean. Therefore, on September 29, Kirovsik in the west of Chongliman was fighting fiercely in the north and south directions. The LPR militia repelled the Ukrainian's many attacks on Kirovsik with the advantage of artillery . After suffering major losses, the Ukrainian army temporarily stopped attacking near the life supply line in the east of Chongliman. However, in the northern, western and southern directions of Chongliman, the Ukrainian army was still further shrinking the "Haimas" rocket launcher firepower support.
It can be said that if the Russian army does not send a large number of ground troops or dispatches the aerospace army to support Hongliman's Russian coalition garrison troops, it is only a matter of time before Hongliman is lost. Even the Russian coalition garrison troops may be dumped by the Ukrainian army because the retreat route is cut off.
Once the dividend Man is lost, the central Luhansk Oblast, which has been completely liberated and joined the Russian Federation, will face a huge risk of being torn apart by the Ukrainian army and driving straight in. In a sense, the bonus mann is the " Stalingrad " in this Russian-Ukraine war. Russia cannot lose the bonus mann in any case.
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▲The square near the Kremlin is preparing for the celebration of the new territory's entry into Russia
Speaking of this, it is mentioned that the signing ceremony of the new territory's entry into Russia Treaty was originally planned to be held on October 3, but for some reason it was suddenly advanced to September 30.
combined with the current situation of the Big Man battle, I personally guess one of the reasons may be that Russia realizes that the situation of the Big Man is urgent and must send a large number of infantry to the front line.
To legitimately send newly recruited soldiers to the front line of Luhansk, it is necessary for the four places including Luhansk to clearly become the legal status of the territory of the Russian Federation. Therefore, Moscow must hold a signing ceremony for the new territory to join Russia in a hurry, and immediately announce that Donetsk, Luhansk, Khlsson and Zaporoze will become the territory of the Russian Federation. In this way, Russia can not only send conscripts to the front line, but also formally declare war on Ukraine as a reason, thereby launching a comprehensive attack on infrastructure in Ukraine.
▲The Russian army has not yet obtained full control of the four states for the expansion of Russia's territory. It is estimated that after the signing ceremony of the new territory's entry into Russia on September 30, the territory of the Russian Federation will be expanded by about 100,000 square kilometers. Of course, the United Nations and the international community are likely to not recognize these new territories that Russia has acquired.
In addition to the expansion of land territory, Russia will also receive a bonus inland sea - the Sea of Azov. Previously, Khlsson, Zaporoze and Donetsk were Ukrainian territory. According to International Law of the Sea of Sea , the Azov Sea does not have the conditions to become Ukraine or any other inland sea in Russia because the coast does not belong to a country.
But after Khlsson, Zaporoze and Donetsk joined the Russian Federation, the Azov coast all belonged to Russia. In this way, the Azov Sea will become Russia's inland sea. In the future, Russia will gain full jurisdiction over the Azov Sea and its resources. Ships in other countries will not be allowed to enter the Azov Sea without Russia's permission.
In fact, after the Kerch Strait conflict on November 25, 2018, Russia has obtained de facto jurisdiction in the Sea of Azov, and Ukraine is too weak to resist because its naval power is too weak. Now that the Russian Navy's Caspian Fleet is now with Khlsson, Zaporoze and Donetsk joining the Russian Federation, Russia will further consolidate its sovereignty over the Azov Sea, it is time for the Russian Navy's Caspian Fleet to expand - if you have money.
After Russia announced the entry of four places into Russia, it is already obvious whether the confrontation between Russia and the West is escalating or downgrading.
First, Russia is likely to launch a bombing of infrastructure in Ukraine, putting Ukraine into economic stagnation in a short period of time and increasing the cost of Western aid to Ukraine. Just imagine, if all the railways and highways in Ukraine are blown up, how to replenish the frontline soldiers in Ukraine and how citizens move will become problems, and Ukraine will encounter huge social problems at that time.
Second, now Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipelines have been destroyed. Russia must speed up the time to let EU re-examine the Ukrainian issue. The EU's winter natural gas supply will definitely have problems. Only by easing relations with Russia is the best choice for the EU.
Third, Putin was so anxious that he began to include Khlsong, Zaporoze and other places. Obviously, he didn't want to continue to fight. The current problem depends on whether Europe and the United States should continue to support Ukraine for a large cost.
It can be foreseen that the situation in October is likely to escalate and may be rapidly downgraded later, so wait and see.
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