(This article is compiled by the official account Yuesheng Investment Consulting (yslcw927), for reference only and does not constitute operational advice. If you operate by yourself, pay attention to position control and risk at your own risk.)
Remember these sixteen words in mind, stock trading will never lose
Whether it is the stock released by the banker, the stock introduced by a good friend, or the one you choose, as long as you insist on "the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock is in the stock, the stock
The so-called "potential" can be an upward channel, an moving average system, or a certain indicator, because your trading cannot be based on feelings without substantial basis, right? Of course, this refers to most traders, because most traders pursue technical speculative arbitrage, and some students who trade based on fundamental valuations and other transactions do not have to get into a stubborn position.
has "momentum", what is "momentum"? For example, the stock price is running on the rising channel or the moving average bull arrangement.
has "momentum", "momentum is in", what is "momentum is in stocks"? For example, when the stock price is running on an upward trend of an upward channel or a moving average long arrangement, you can hold stocks and go long. If you are not investing in stocks, do you want to invest in the upward trend? Of course, this is when ordinary retail investors are not profitable in our A-share market.
So, what is the increase in stocks? This is simple. The upward momentum is becoming more and more obvious, the rhythm is getting stronger and stronger, and the rising channel begins to have a slow angle like climbing. As the angle increases, it starts to look like walking, and then it runs into the main rise. . . This is a process of increasing potential. As the initial momentum becomes less obvious, the operator is becoming more and more bold, and the number of chips is being placed, which means that the stocks are increasing.
What is the trend reduction and stock reduction? What is the trend reduction?
For example, the stock in the rising channel runs from 45° to 60°, then reaches 75°, and finally enters a vertical pull-up of 90°, and then turns to 75°, 60°. , this is the obvious momentum reduction, and the holdings of shares will of course decrease as the momentum weakens. The so-called trend moves in stocks, when the upward trend weakens to fall below the upward trend, it no longer constitutes the most basic condition for holding stocks, that is, the trend moves in stocks, so of course, the trend moves in stocks.
With these sixteen words, after the momentum turns long, he intervenes decisively, and after the momentum turns short, he appears decisively. Don’t clearly break the position, and still talk about increasing positions and adding positions. Going long frantically, don’t clearly establish an upward trend, and still be bearish and short. It can easily reach the level of a speculative expert who cuts off losses and allows profits to run.
In the stock market, turnover rate is very important and can be used to measure the activity of stocks and thus find strong stocks in the stage.
What is stock turnover rate ?
Stock turnover rate actually refers to the frequency of stock transactions being reached on a certain day or at a certain period of time.
The stock turnover rate is an important indicator that reflects the liquidity of a stock. When the turnover rate is higher, it proves that the stock is highly liquid and the buying and selling frequency is high; when the turnover rate is lower, it proves that the stock is weakly liquid and the buying and selling frequency is low.
How to calculate the stock turnover rate?
In fact, in the A-share market, the turnover rate can be calculated as long as you know the two major elements of stocks, the trading volume and the circulating share capital of the stock. As long as you know these two elements, the turnover rate of the stock can be calculated and the company is calculated as.
Turnover rate = Total trading volume/circulating share capital *100%
Turnover rate = Total trading volume/total share capital *100%
For example:
A stock has a total share capital of 200 shares, while circulating shares is 100 shares, and in a certain month the stock has a total of 50 shares; according to the turnover rate of A shares, it is 50 shares/100 shares *100%=50% turnover rate. However, according to international standards, the turnover rate is calculated as 50 shares/200 shares*100%=25%. The results of the turnover rate are also very different from the two calculation methods.
How to judge stock activity through stock turnover rate?
There is actually no rigid regulation to determine the activity of a stock, because the turnover rate is directly related to the size of the stock plate and attention, and it is roughly divided into the following situations!
When the stock turnover rate is less than 1%, it means that the stock is extremely sluggish, the stock activity is too low, and the trading liquidity is too poor.
When the stock turnover rate is between 1% and 3%, it means that the stock is moderate, not too low or too high, and it is a normal activity level.
When the stock turnover rate is between 3% and 7%, it means that the stock has been relatively active, there are more investors participating in trading, and they are more liquid.
When the stock turnover rate is between 7% and 10%, this is a relatively high turnover rate. These stocks are generally strong stocks with high activity.
When the stock turnover rate is between 10% and 15%, it is already a very active stock and has very strong liquidity. It is generally a market share stock.
When the stock turnover rate is above 15%, it is already a very high turnover rate. Although the liquidity is very strong, the main force of the police shipped at a high level in this case. In short, the turnover rate is too high and you need to pay attention to the risk coming.
Who is suitable for applying turnover rate?
If it is absolutely lurking or long-term value investment, the turnover rate is actually not very meaningful. The former is to conduct left-side trading when the market is sluggish, and the turnover rate itself will remain at a low level for a long time. If it is the latter, it is focused on the fundamentals of listed companies, tracking changes in valuation levels and company profit level. The turnover rate cannot affect the fundamentals.
But for trading investors, it is important to capture the starting point of the stock price rise, participate in the stage when the stock price rises the strongest, and obtain the price difference return through the inertial rise of the stock price, so the turnover rate is very important.
turnover rate can also be called turnover rate, which represents the frequency of stock transfer. The higher the turnover rate, the more people buy this stock, the more active the trading, and the higher the popularity. On the contrary, everyone is not optimistic, there are very few people buying, and it is an unpopular stock. The stock price is determined by its actual value in the long term, by industry trends in the medium term, but by funds in the short term. This means that if a stock bar stock becomes a popular bull stock in the short term, the turnover rate will definitely increase.
How to capture the start point of strong stocks?
For example, we took a look at the "Saturday" stock that was very popular in the past. Before December 13, 2019, the daily turnover rate of this stock was below 8%, and most of the time it was below 3%, which was not active relative to trading. However, on December 13, the turnover rate rose to more than 9%, and the stock price started. After that, the stock price rose sharply, and the turnover rate remained at a relatively high level.
Another example is the following stock, Hangjin Technology, before December 17, 2019, the turnover rate was very low, below 3%, but on December 17, the turnover rate jumped to more than 7.5%, and then rose continuously. After a sharp rise, a short-term pullback was made. After that, the turnover rate continued to remain high, and the stock price rose again.
This also means that the rapid rise and sustained turnover rate is the key to whether the stock can continue to maintain a strong rise, because short-term bull stocks are essentially relying on funds to relay. If funds buy in a single day and there is no new funds to take over the next day, relay cannot be achieved. Continuously maintaining a good turnover is the key to whether the stock price can be relayed.
Application turnover rate requires three details
Finding short-term strong stocks through turnover rate is a very efficient way, but this does not mean that as long as you look at the turnover rate, you will definitely rise sharply and make money. Some stocks with very high turnover rates will also fall sharply. A high turnover rate means that the stock price is very active, and the corresponding fluctuations are relatively large, which is prone to big rises and big falls.
Therefore, when utilizing the turnover rate, there are several characteristics that need to be paid attention to:
1. The turnover rate needs to be enlarged at a low level, rather than at a high level after a continuous surge;
2. The turnover rate has more than doubled from a low level, which is an active level. According to the difference in different liquid market values, there will be a difference in the turnover rate. Generally speaking, the turnover rate reaches 10% is an active level;
3. If the stock price continues to rise after the turnover rate increases, when the turnover rate exceeds 30% and there is a high opening and low closing, it is likely to peak in the short term, and you need to be careful.
We can first find the industries and sectors where the main funds in the market are inflowing in a certain stage based on the market situation, and then find strong varieties in it, and then grasp them in combination with the three details I just mentioned, so we can better use the turnover rate indicators to make decisions for our own transactions.
Several common turnover rates analysis
turnover rate has a certain time range. For example, the weekly turnover rate refers to the turnover situation of stocks in a week, that is, the cumulative turnover rate of each single-day turnover rate within a week. The turnover rate can not only indicate the sufficient degree of a stock turnover and the active trading status of trading within a specific time, but more importantly, it is also an important reference indicator for judging and measuring the differences between long and short sides.
Because the circulating market of individual stocks vary in size, it is not very meaningful to just compare the transaction amount. When examining trading volume, we should not only look at the number of stocks sold, but also analyze the turnover rate, the relative position of the high turnover rate, and the duration of the high turnover rate. This mainly has the following situations:
indicates that the opinions of both bulls and bears are basically consistent, and the stock price will generally maintain the original operating trend and further develop, and in most cases it will fall slightly or run sideways.
indicates that there are great differences between the long and short sides, but as long as the active transaction situation can be maintained, the stock price will generally show an upward trend.
In most cases, too low or too high turnover rate is the leading indicator for stock price changes. Generally speaking, after the stock price has been adjusted for a long time, if the turnover rate remains at an extremely low level for more than a week (such as the weekly turnover rate is below 2%), it often indicates that both bulls and bears are on the stand-by. Since the short side's strength has been basically released, the stock price has basically entered the bottom area at this time, and it is easy to see an upward trend after that.
For the occurrence of high turnover rate, investors should first distinguish the relative position where high turnover rate appears. If an individual stock has a high turnover rate after a long period of slump, and the higher turnover rate can be maintained for several trading days, it can generally be regarded as a sign that new funds are involved more obvious. At this time, the credibility of high turnover is relatively high. Since the bottom volume is increased and the turnover is sufficient, the stock should have relatively large room for future growth, and the possibility of becoming a strong stock is also very high.
stocks suddenly have a high turnover rate at a relatively high level and the trading volume suddenly increases, which is generally a high possibility that it will become a sign of decline. This situation is often accompanied by positive news from individual stocks or markets. At this time, the chips that have already made profits will take the opportunity to get out and successfully complete the distribution. The situation of "all the positive news is negative" occurs in this situation. Investors should be cautious about high positions and high turnover rates.
Most of the time, some institutions with larger positions will take the method of rescuing themselves to attract followers because they cannot be eliminated. Beware of those varieties with sufficient turnover but limited increase.
But for new stocks that have just been listed, if the opening price is not much different from the issue price and can maintain a high turnover rate for a long time, you can consider intervening in time.
Long-term low turnover rate is often in a long-term downturn. Investors should not intervene at this time, but should wait until their volume stretches out positive and the trend completely becomes stronger before they can consider participating in investment.
Be cautious when dealing with stocks with excessive cumulative gains in the previous period. Judging from the historical trend, after a stock has a huge increase, when the turnover rate in a single-day exceeds 10%, the probability of individual stocks entering short-term adjustment is relatively high, especially if the turnover rate exceeds 7% for several consecutive trading days, you should be more careful.
Skills for analyzing the turnover rate of the main force:
Specifically, investors can find the trends of the main force by observing the stock turnover rate from the following aspects.
As shown in the figure, 0,000 Wanjia (600576) had a moderate rise in the past seven months before it rose by the daily limit. In the slow rise in the past few months, the main force successfully completed the process of building positions. The figure shows that the stock price has risen three times significantly, and during the pull-up process, the turnover rate has also reached a very high level.
During the subsequent pull-up process, the turnover rate at position B in the figure always remains at 5%-20%. Such a high turnover rate and slow stock price rise are obviously not something that ordinary retail investors can achieve. The main force is spending a lot of effort to build positions, which has led to the turnover rate continuing to remain at a high level.
As shown in the figure, Wolong Electric (600580) has also experienced a suppression process during the process of being pulled up by the main force. For stocks that have been deeply involved in the main force, when the main force suppresses the market, retail investors must be shipped in large quantities. Since the main force does not participate in the shipment, the turnover rate will definitely not be very high. This just shows that the main force is reluctant to sell stocks when suppressing the stock price, confirming the existence of the main force in the stock.
As shown in the figure, although Antong Expressway (600012) is not considered a big bull stock in the stock market rebound from the end of 2008 to the end of 2009, the existence of the main force is clearly seen. The amplification of the turnover rate at the A position in the figure corresponds to the bottom of the stock price, which is exactly the price where the main force builds positions.
So what is the turnover rate during the pull-up? The position between stock building and shipment in the figure is where the main force is when the stock price is pulled up. From this, it can be seen that although the turnover rate when the main force is pulling up the stock price is relatively low, it still maintains a high level. If the main force wants to raise the stock price, it will use some funds to take over. In this way, compared with the stock price that naturally rises under the influence of retail investors, the turnover rate of the main force when pulling up the stock price will be much higher.
As shown in Figure 8-8, when Huadian International (600027) peaked, its stock price finally fell rapidly after the final crazy pull-up. If the main force's movements are not very obvious when the stock price is pulled up, then when the stock price is shipped, the main force's "fox tail" has been fully exposed. The huge turnover rate shown in the figure is very telling. When the main force shipped, it was not only the index of trading volume, but also a large number of stocks were being switched. How to parse the daily turnover rate of
? The daily turnover situation of
stocks can be divided into five types: sluggish state, normal state, active state, high active state, and abnormal active state according to the size of the single-day turnover rate. It should be noted that at different times when the market is at a climax, low and stable, the turnover rate of these five types will vary.
When the daily turnover rate of an individual stock exceeds 15%, it indicates that the stock price trend is in an abnormally active state. On the one hand, it shows that the stock has a strong operation, and on the other hand, it shows that the stock has huge differences in opinions between long and short sides. When an individual stock needs to break through important resistance levels, such a turnover rate may occur; if such a turnover rate appears at the top of an individual stock, it is often an ominous omen, which indicates the market's fanatical state or the illusion of the main force's confrontation.In addition, when new stocks are listed on the first day, there is no limit on rising/limited limits and are highly speculative, so individual stocks often have a turnover rate of 50% to 90%. But the more full the turnover rate, the better, which means that there are market players grabbing chips.
Generally speaking, when the daily turnover rate of an individual stock is less than 1%, it means that the stock's market turnover is insufficient, the trading is light, and the stock price will remain in its original state in the short term. If the stock has always had a small trading volume, it means that the stock may be an unpopular product, or there is no main force involved, and the stock has poor liquidity.
When the daily turnover rate of an individual stock is between 7% and 15%, it means that the stock has attracted much attention from the market and is a period when the main force appears. This situation generally occurs in popular stocks or strong stocks, which means that the stock price trend is in a highly active state, which also shows that the opinions of both long and short sides are very different. Stocks with this turnover rate are also worthy of attention. It usually means that the main force is conducting a counter-debt, or that a certain party consumes too much energy and causes the market to change.
When the daily turnover rate of an individual stock is between 3% and 7%, it means that the stock has a large disagreement between the long and short sides, but the stock price is still going upward or downward, depending on which side has a greater strength, and the strong side will have the dominant advantage in the short term. When such a turnover rate appears, it often means that the main force begins to show off. If the stock price starts to rise from a low point at this time, then the stock is worthy of the focus of traders.
When the daily turnover rate of an individual stock is between 1% and 3%, it means that the long and short sides of the stock have slightly different opinions, which is a normal turnover state, and the stock price will continue to operate according to the original trend. Generally speaking, the daily turnover rate of most stocks in the market will not be less than 1% unless the market is in a very downturn.
Usually, when a stock with a daily turnover rate of 3% to 7% rise, it is worth the focus of attention of traders who have not entered the market; and a turnover rate of more than 10% is something that shareholders need to be careful about; traders should turn a blind eye to individual stocks with too low or too high turnover rates and concentrate on finding safer opportunities in active stocks. It should be noted that the above analysis method is not applicable to some long-term stocks that have traded sideways at high levels or have collapsed.
What impact does turnover rate have on individual stock trends?
1. After the low turnover rate of individual stocks has passed the active period, the daily turnover rate is greater than 7% and continues to exceed 10%, indicating that the chips are changing rapidly, and individual stocks will experience a sharp surge. This will be the best time for investors to operate.
2. There is a high turnover rate for a long time. After the high turnover rate appears, it means that short-term liquidity is enlarged and market attention is increased, and the stock price is expected to develop upward.
3. The low high turnover rate is an exciting wash-up, indicating that the main force has a high chance of building positions.
There are three main ways to amplify the turnover rate or high turnover rate:
1. First, we must observe whether the turnover rate can be maintained for a long time
0 Because a long time high turnover rate indicates that the amount of funds in and out is large, strong sustainability, and sufficient incremental funds, so only such individual stocks are operable.
2. High turnover
3, abnormal momentum ratio and abnormal turnover rate
4. Huge high turnover
Looking for strong stocks with main force
. Share with you a bottom-up indicator, which is the attached figure indicator. It is recommended to use the moving average system in the main chart. When the "bottom-buying" signal appears, it should be filtered through the moving average system in the main chart. For example, when the "bottom-buying" signal appears, do not rush to buy. You can wait until the 10-day moving average is up before considering buying. You can also filter by looking at whether the trading volume has amplified before the signal appears. In short, not every "bottom-buying" signal can be executed. It should be distinguished through the assistance of other indicators such as moving average or volume energy. You can grasp the specific situation yourself.
formula source code is as follows:
Short trend: ((3*SMA((CLOSE-LLV(LOW,27))/(HHV(HIGH,27)-LLV(LOW,27))*100,5,1)-2*SMA(SMA((CLOSE-LLV(LOW,27))/(HHV(HIGH,27)-LLV(LOW,27))*100,5,1),3,1)-50)*1.032+50),COLORRED;
VAR2:=(2*CLOSE+HIGH+LOW+ OPEN)/5;
VAR3:=LLV(LOW,34);
VAR4:=HHV(HIGH,34);
Long Trend:EMA((VAR2-VAR3)/(VAR4-VAR3)*100,13),COLOR00FF00;
Judgement Bottom:SQRT(SQRT(FLOOR(SQRT(MA(1/WINNER(CLOSE)*100,4)/10000))))*5;
VAR5:=CROSS(short trend, long trend)AND Long Trend 25;
Bottom: STICKLINE(short Trend 10 AND Judgment Bottom 0,0,30,6,1);
STICKLINE(VAR5,0,50,8,0),COLORRED;
DRAWICON(VAR5AND Judgment Bottom 0,60,1);
DRAWTEXT(COUNT(short Trend 10AND Judgment Bottom 0,8) AND VAR5,50,'Bottom Buy');
DRAWTEXT(CROSS(short Trend, long Trend)AND Long Trend 25AND Long Trend REF (Long Trend, 1), 50, 'Fast Pull or Short Top');
VAR6:=CROSS (Short Trend, Long Trend) AND Long Trend 50;
DRAWTEXT(COUNT (Short Trend 30AND Judgment Bottom 0, 5) AND VAR6, 30, 'Short Buy');
The formula code is copied and caused some format errors. If it cannot be imported successfully, you can ask me to get the source code!
If you want to know more about the operation skills and formula codes of the current A-share stage, or if you have any doubts, you can follow the official account Yuesheng Investment Consulting (yslcw927). More future market operations and stock technical analysis methods are waiting for you to learn, and there are endless resources!
[Basic elements of success in trading system]
--After establishing a trading system, to ensure that the trading system is successful in actual combat, you should have at least the following four basic elements:
1. Correct concept
Different people may adhere to different trading concepts and form different trading systems, but a good trading system should follow the concept of low risk and trade based on this concept.
2. Methods that suit you
Regarding investment methods, they mainly refer to the buying, selling, position control and stop-profit and stop-loss of the trading system. As long as the trading system is formulated, the method will naturally be more complete.
3. Decisive execution
execution abilities are the ability to persevere in doing things. Many times, we are "giants in language, dwarfs in action", and we will only say and not do it, especially in the securities market. When we make analysis and judgment, we can talk big, but when I really go to trade, I find that I cannot implement my trading plan at all. This is also a very important reason why most investors cannot make money in the end or fail to achieve their profit goals.
4. Good mentality
A good mentality is based on continuous learning and continuous self-reflection. Stock market investment is a combination of science and art. If it is pure mathematics, it is very simple, but in fact, many things cannot be quantified. When any transaction may suffer losses, and when any sell may continue to rise, how can you solve this mentality and make yourself more calm? This requires continuous summary and continuous understanding.
- To sum up, when doing stocks, you must first establish the correct concept, formulate your own trading system under the guidance of the correct concept, and then have a good attitude and insist on operating according to your own trading system. Only when we have a suitable trading system and have these basic qualities can we be considered a qualified investor.
Statement: This content is provided by Yuesheng Investment Consulting, and does not mean that the Investment Express recognizes its investment views
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