Yimin.com August 15th , this week (August 5th-August 12th) the financial market was baptized by a series of economic data, and the overall international spot gold price also fluctuated around several major data in the United States. On Friday, as U.S. retail sales and producer price index (PPI) performed worse than expected, the Federal Reserve's expectation for interest rate hikes this year was hit hard, and the US dollar index also suffered a sharp decline. International gold prices jumped more than 1.3% at one point. The US market hit a high of $1,355.80/ounce intraday, but the gold price trend was unstable. Later, as investors locked in profits and took profits, the gold price turned down again, hitting the intraday low of $1,333.50/ounce, stabilizing. At the end of the trading session, the gold price closed at $1,335.00/ounce, down $3.30, a drop of 0.25%.
Next week, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July meeting. Atlanta Fed Chairman Dennis Lockhart, 2016 FOMC vote committee, St. Louis Fed Chairman James Bullard and San Francisco Fed Chairman John Williams will all deliver speeches, which may once again affect the Fed's interest rate hike expectations and will also trigger volatility in financial markets.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales remained flat in July, with expectations of 0.4%, and the previous value was revised to 0.8%. Sub-indicators show that after deducting automobiles and gasoline, core retail sales in the United States fell 0.1% in July, the biggest drop since January this year.
The Wall Street Journal said that retail sales in the United States were lower than expected in July, which will become a potential obstacle to the U.S. economic growth in the second half of this year.
In addition, the US PPI monthly rate fell 0.4%, the largest single-month decline since September last year, with an expected growth of 0.1% and a previous value of 0.5%.
Some market insiders pointed out that as one of the inflation forward indicators, the unexpected weakness of PPI today will undoubtedly challenge the Fed's 2% inflation target. After the
data was released, the US dollar index fell sharply to 95.25 in the short term, the lowest level since June 23. Spot gold and silver rose in the short term, and the gold price soared to US$1,355.80 per ounce; the silver price broke through the 20 mark.
However, the carnival of gold bulls did not last long and was heavily suppressed by selling, as the US dollar quickly bottomed out and rebounded, and gold and silver gave up all the gains and turned to decline. Market analysis shows that gold prices have been locked in profits after the unexpectedly flat U.S. retail sales data jumped more than 1% after the release of July's release. After the release of weak data from
, the New York Fed lowered U.S. GDP forecast for the third quarter by 0.2 percentage points to a 2.4% increase. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model downgrades the U.S. GDP growth forecast for the third quarter from 3.7% to 3.5%. "Retail sales (except automobiles) grew lower in July, and we think retail sales data truly reflect consumer spending, and today's data tells us that consumption is very slow. The data will have an impact on the third quarter."
Although a Reuters survey on Thursday (August 11) showed that most economists expect another rate hike in December, financial markets are currently expected to raise interest rates next year. According to the latest report from Reuters, U.S. federal funds futures interest rates show traders expect the probability of the Federal Reserve hike in September to be 17%. The probability of the Fed hike in December is expected to be 43%, compared with 47% previously.
Regarding the gold price trend, the weekly gold survey released by Kitco on Friday (August 12) showed that in terms of bullish gold next week, professionals and retail investors' opinions are consistently bullish, especially after the weakening of US retail and PPI data.
There were 830 ordinary investors participating in the online survey this time, of which 549 or 66% believed that gold was still bullish next week, while 156 or 19% was bearish; 125 or 15% remained neutral.
In the survey by professionals, 17 people participated in the survey, of which 12 or 71% believed that gold will rise next week; 4 or 24% believed that gold will fall; only 1 person believed that gold will consolidate.
Morrison market news editor Ken Morrison expects gold prices to fall to support. "Short-term momentum is a critical moment for gold. Below $1,340/ounce will trigger a selling signal. The target is $1,320/ounce, which is close to the 50-day moving average. To regain the upward momentum, gold needs to continue to rise above the high of $1,374/ounce in early August, which is unlikely in the short term when the market is relatively stable.Next week, I will be happy to see the price of gold falling by $1,320 per ounce. ”
Credit Suisse said it raised the price of gold forecast at the end of June to $1,475 per ounce in the fourth quarter. Its outlook is “mainly based on the purchase of gold ETF investment demand and the boom in gold coins and bars due to the recession of the macro economy and negative interest rates. On July 27, 39% of sovereign bonds were already at negative interest rates, and mining supply was also on the decline. ”
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