When talking about the situation in the Russian-Ukraine war, many times, when writing about some very critical points, it seems that a paragraph or a more practical analysis should be added to point out the problem.

Yesterday I saw a message from a reader, and he said: Xiaoxi, I feel that the manuscripts you have written recently are a little shallow. Many articles are written halfway through, but they are over without reading them.

I thought about it and said, yes, since the main account was taken off at the beginning of the month, my writing has become less and less stable recently. When talking about the situation in the Russian-Ukraine war, many times, when writing about some very critical points, it seems that a paragraph or a more practical analysis should be added to point out the problem. But after hesitating for a long time, I felt that it would be better to forget it. It is better to have one less sentence than one more sentence. As the war reaches this point, many trends are already very obvious. There are many things that I don’t need to point out in my article, and those who are willing to see clearly have already seen them clearly. To say that more, apart from causing the friends who had made the fuss of "Shaoygu's deity in the battle" a few months ago, they have no real value.

According to my observation, with the unsurprising development of the war situation in Russia and Ukraine, the mental state of these readers is becoming increasingly unstable. At this time, for their mental health and personal safety. Saying less is not too much to stimulate these people, which is a more peaceful way.

After all, I hate quarrels and want to be kind to others.

This is why the situation is getting clearer and clearer, but my articles about Russia and Ukraine are becoming more and more implicit - You must learn to take care of the emotions of readers of various views, even if this will reduce the readability of the article, especially when you say it correctly.

Today is the day when the four eastern prefectures in Ukraine jointly entered Russia's votes. The results were not surprising. The voters in the four places agreed to join the Russian Federation: Donetsk 99.23%, Lugansk 98.42%, Zaporoze 93.11%, and Khelson 87.05%.

This is not surprising. In my impression, since World War II , the results of the referendums held by the Soviet Union and Russia have been passed with high votes. The "Russian-style referendum" has always been known for its lack of suspense, so after looking at the statements of all parties, they were not surprised by the result. Whether in Ukraine or the West, everyone was also in a state of being useless to say too much and just want to fight.

Actually, what I am more concerned about is what kind of war ending line Russia will draw next, that is, what will Russia's next requirements for this war.

Friends with better memory should still remember that when Russia just took "special military action" against Ukraine at the end of February, it repeatedly stated that "Russia does not seek territorial expansion." Although this sentence is somewhat slap in the face today, it may be quite sincere and wise to say it.

Russia is carrying out this special military operation. The highest goal is of course to directly remove the current Ukrainian government. Otherwise, it can also be second-hand, occupy a certain scale of Ukraine's territory, and then negotiate with the current Ukrainian government to force Ukraine to agree to the conditions proposed by Russia by using the return of territory as a bargaining chip (such as the "demilitarization, de-Nazization, and recognition of the current status of Crimea" proposed by Russia in the early stage of the war).

We can see that no matter which situation is above, if it is achieved, Russia does not need to expand its territory - because in the former case, the entire Ukraine has become Russia's followers, while the area occupied by the latter case will become a bargaining chip for exchange at the negotiating table.

But a few months later, the Russian side has made a decision contrary to its original strategy. The four states in this "referendum to Russia" have almost covered all the occupied areas that Russia has obtained since the war began. In other words, the referendum is actually equivalent to "monetizing" all the remaining achievements of Russia, and also made it break the way out for peace with the Ukrainians at the negotiating table - imagine that if the negotiations can be restarted in the future, Russia will propose to exchange the four states for Ukraine's compromise, which will become very self-slap in the face - that will be equivalent to betraying the public opinion of the people of these states who voted to join Russia.

So from a strategic perspective, the greatest significance of this referendum is to cut off the possibility of peace between Russia and Ukraine in the short term through negotiations and mutual compromise. Russia can no longer negotiate with the occupied Ukrainian territory as a bargaining chip; if Ukraine wants to continue to exist, it will not be possible to accept such a large tract of territory "leaving away from Ukraine and entering Russia" in this way; and for the West, if this move is turned into by Russia, it will constitute a huge loss of its prestige. If this battle cannot be won, EU will even have the risk of being dispersed in the future.

So counting it, the result of the referendum has forced all the three parties who are fighting to the corner. Everyone knows that it is useless to say more, so they can only continue to fight.

The Russian-Ukrainian war will enter a new stage that is more difficult to make peace.

As for what the situation will be like in the future, such as whether Russia will really use nuclear deterrence, I have done a little analysis on WeChat account and said more on the planet. I won’t go into details here. Interested friends can move over and follow:

In short, the referendum means that the terminating line before the war has now been erased. How the future war situation will develop, at least for Russia, this is an "unconceived path".

At this time, any analysis can only take one step at a time, because it is very likely that at this time, there is no very clear concept of "war terminus" among the decision makers of the war.

mentions the word " war terminal ". I always thought of 1914 for no reason.

Grand Duke Ferdinand Sarajevo assassination and outbreak, there was once a month of seemingly peaceful time.

During this period, Germany William II once had a fantasy idea of ​​ "Belgrade Terminal" . He told his Foreign Minister Bateman, could we do this? ——Let go and let Austro-Hungarian Empire start war against Serbian , but the Austro-Hungarian Empire is required to stop as soon as possible. After taking the Serbian capital Belgrade , it will stop immediately, and then use Belgrade as a bargaining chip to threaten Serbia to agree to its conditions. Wouldn’t the trouble be solved?

But when William II told Bateman this idea, the latter popularized two knowledge for his emperor before he had to do the job according to the order: First, the Austrian army was not the German army, and they could not defeat Belgrade by relying on themselves alone. Second, if the Austro-Hungarian Empire had the ability to occupy Belgrade, what power could ensure that they "stop it" and use Belgrade as the end of its war?

So the "Belgrade Terminal" plan is a fantasy, and the root cause of Germany's failure in both World Wars is that it has never thought of a clear and executable "war terminus".

As Clausewitz said: War is just the continuation of politics. Therefore, wise war starters should think of a clear, executable and reachable "terminal station" for them before the war begins. There is no war, more terrible than a war that does not exist or loses a "terminal station". This situation is exactly the problem that Russia will face after the referendum of the four districts.

As mentioned in the previous article, click to finish, just write so much about the judgment of the war situation in Russia and Ukraine. The recent writing has indeed made some friends feel "not satisfied". But please forgive me. I will wait for about a month to rest like this. I believe it will be better after a while.

Sometimes life is like waiting for a train. When the train has not arrived yet, the best attitude towards response seems to be waiting. Please wait quietly for the moment when the smoke and dust disappear, the situation is clear, and the train arrives at the station. Instead of standing on the rails rashly and being hit by the galloping train.