However, , which has set new highs in recent days, fell sharply on the 5th, and fell 20% during the session. As of the close, the share price of Tesla fell 17.18% to US$734.70, and the market value evaporated by more than US$20 billion.
Data source: Wind
Model 3 may delay delivery
htmlOn February 5, Tesla opened low, and fell 7% at the opening. The intraday decline continued to expand, falling to 20% at one point. As of the close, the intraday decline reached 17.18%, the largest drop in history.Tesla 's rise has come to an abrupt end because on February 4, Tao Lin, vice president of external affairs of Tesla , said on Weibo that delivery was originally scheduled to be suspended in early February after the Spring Festival, and the suspension rate will be added after the epidemic improves, and various plans are currently being formulated. However, in a conference call last week to release its fourth-quarter earnings report, Zach Kirkhorn, chief financial officer of Tesla , said that mass production of Model 3 will be delayed by one and a half weeks, and the suspension may slightly affect the company's profitability in the first quarter of 2020.
Image source: Weibo
At the same time, it is reported that Ralph Nader, a famous American consumer rights activist, warned of the recent continued surge in Tesla stock on February 5, calling on regulators to consider investigating potential insider trading.
In recent times, the stock price of Tesla has soared. On February 3, Tesla rose 19.9%, setting a record of $780 per share. On February 4, Tesla rose 13.73% again to US$887.06, with a market value of nearly US$160 billion. From $300 per share to $900 per share, it took less than 3 months for Tesla ; if statistics have been counted this year as of Tuesday's closing, the cumulative increase of Tesla 's stock price has exceeded 112%.
Wind data statistics. As of the previous trading day (February 4), the top ten companies in the automobile manufacturing industry ranked in the total market value are Toyota , Tesla , Volkswagen, Daimler , GM, BMW , Honda, Ford, SAIC and Nissan .
For Tesla currently has such a high market value, Xiaopeng Motors founder He Xiaopeng also said on Weibo that within ten years, smart cars will have many companies with market value of more than US$100 billion to US$100 billion. However, cars and mobile phones have huge differences, and it is difficult to form huge winner-takes-all and super high gross profits, so I have not seen the logic of such a high valuation at the moment.
Image source: Weibo
Short cover has led to the previous short squeeze
Interestingly, the well-known short selling institution Citron Research ( Citron Research ) stated on February 4 that when program trading began to drive the market, it is believed that "if Tesla founder Musk is a fund manager, he will also short now, Tesla has become the new Wall Street casino."
In fact, the continuous surge in Tesla has become a nightmare for some Wall Street people. Therefore, there are also reasons for short squeeze in the stock price soaring recently. An institutional person said that the stock price of Tesla has been rising in recent months, resulting in some short sellers selling margin trading to repay the bonds but individual stocks rose. At this time, they need to force back the stocks to cover the stocks, and the shorts cover became bulls, which also caused the stock prices to rise in an instant recently.
S3 Partners data shows that as of February 3, in the past 30 days, the short positions of Tesla have decreased by 1.37 million shares, and the short positions in the week from January 27 to February 2 decreased by 651,000 shares. However, currently, Tesla is still the largest short seller in the US stock market.
Data source: S3Partners
Specifically, according to S3 Partners data statistics, as of February 3, the short sellers of Tesla have decreased by US$8.31 billion in 2020, of which a market value loss of US$5.84 billion in January.Since the price of Tesla fell to a low of $178.97 on June 3, 2019, short sellers have repaid 19.31 million shares of Tesla stock, worth $12.6 billion, and their market value shrank by $16.11 billion. Meanwhile, S3 Partners expects that although some short sellers have increased their positions due to expected short-term pullbacks, short cover should increase in the current stock price context.
Note: Green line: Tesla stock price Yellow line: Short selling scale
Data source: S3Partners
At the same time, Barclays raised the target price of Tesla from US$200/share to US$300/share, which is still far lower than the closing price of US$734.70/share on February 5. JPMorgan also believes that Tesla 's current share price is seriously overvalued for a car manufacturer. In their opinion, Tesla is a car company, and investors value it as a technology company. In addition, some analysts said that the stock price of Tesla may fall again.
Follow the opportunity after the decline
A shares , in addition to pharmaceutical stocks, the sectors that have performed strongly since the beginning of the year are Tesla concept.
Along with the surge in Tesla , A-share supplier stocks also hit the daily limit for two consecutive days. Among them, CATL rose against the market on the first trading day of the Year of the Rat, and then closed the daily limit on February 4 and February 5.
It is worth noting that during the daily limit on February 4, CATL was sold by two major institutional seats, selling a total of 153 million yuan.
Data source: Wind
CATL Announcement stated that it plans to sign "Production Pricing Agreement (China)" with Tesla, Inc. and Tesla . The agreement stipulates that CATL will supply lithium-ion power battery products to Tesla from July 2020 to June 2022.
How to interpret the A-share new energy vehicle sector in the future?
Fengjing Investment stated that most companies resume work on February 10, affecting 1-1.5 weeks, accounting for 10% of the production time of the quarter, but some scarce raw materials still remain in a certain way; from the perspective of demand, the sales of electric vehicles from January to February generally only account for 6% of the whole year, which is the off-season itself. Demand in the first quarter is expected to be postponed to the second quarter, and the overall impact is limited; during the holiday Tesla financial report and sales volume exceed expectations, and it is expected that domestic subsidy policies will be implemented in the second quarter, and new cars of car companies will begin to be launched, and the industry's prosperity is expected to recover significantly, and falling is an opportunity.
This article is from China Securities Journal
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