Iron ore | Steel | Coking Coal | Nickel & Stainless Steel | Copper | Zinc | Aluminum | Asphalt | Crude Oil | Fuel Oil | Pulp | Natural Rubber & No. 20 Glue | Plastic | Methanol | Steam Coal | PVC | PTA | PP | PF | MEG | EB
Chehongyun
Investment consulting business certificate number: Z0012165
Iron ore
[Night trading review]
futures : Futures iron ore i2205 closed at 694.5 yuan/ton, futures iron ore i2209 closed at 670.5 yuan/ton, iron ore 5-9 price difference is 24; spot: Qingdao Port PB powder price is 855-865 yuan/ton; Qingdao Port super special powder price is 515-525 yuan/ton, and the discount order is about 718.
[Important Information]
1. [Conference of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: Strengthen financial risk prevention and control, resolutely safeguard the overall financial stability] The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on February 25. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to strengthen the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee over financial work and unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics. We must strengthen financial risk prevention and control and resolutely safeguard the overall financial stability. We must strengthen the atmosphere of comprehensive and strict governance of the Party with strict discipline, implement the "two responsibilities", strengthen supervision of the "top leaders" and the leadership team, carry out special rectification of typical common problems such as violation of the spirit of the Central Eight Regulations and the " revolving door" of government and business, and promote the integration of not daring to be corrupt, not being able to be corrupt, and not wanting to be corrupt. We must innovate and improve the power supervision system and discipline enforcement system, so as to promote the punishment of corruption in the financial field and the handling of financial risks, to promote the serious pursuit of accountability and recovery of stolen assets and losses, and to establish systems and strengthen the implementation of systems. We must thoroughly implement the Party’s organizational line in the new era and strengthen the construction of the leadership team. We must deepen reforms in the financial field and continuously improve the modernization level of financial governance system and governance capabilities. Li Xinchuang, Party Secretary of
2, Metallurgical Industry Planning Research Institute, and Vice President of , said that according to recent reports in the industry, the crude steel production control policy in 2022 will continue, but the specific principles, regions, quantity and progress of regulation are still under in-depth research.
3. On February 25, Mysteel counted 15,886.57 imported iron ore inventory in 45 ports nationwide; the average daily port release volume was 293.79. In terms of component, Australia mine is 7583.09, Brazil mine is 5335.1, trade mine is 9232.3, pellet group is 473.15, fine powder is 1143.55, block mine is 2048.33, coarse powder is 12221.54; there are 130 ships in port. (Unit: 10,000 tons) Statistics the total imported iron ore inventory of 47 ports nationwide is 164.3657 million tons, and the average daily port discharge volume of 47 ports is 3.0709 million tons.
4. On February 24, Mysteel counted the total inventory of imported sintered powder from 114 steel mills in the new caliber was 33.1749 million tons, and the total daily consumption of sintered powder was 954,700 tons. The total inventory of imported sintered powder in 64 steel mills with original diameter was 15.6897 million tons, the total daily consumption of sintered powder was 473,200 tons, and the inventory consumption ratio was 33. The average ratio of imported ore used in sintered ore in was 86.39%. The average iron cost of steel mills excluding tax was 3,107 yuan/ton.
[Trading Strategy]
Last week's spot market price was relatively strongly supported by the resumption of production. Recently, the State Administration for Market Regulation has paid close attention to changes in iron ore prices. It will work with relevant departments to further increase market supervision, resolutely and severely punish illegal and irregular acts such as fabricating and distributing price increase information, hoarding, and price gouging, effectively maintaining normal market order and ensuring the smooth operation of iron ore prices. From a fundamental perspective, the resumption rate of construction sites after the holiday was lower than last year, which caused a decline in black prices. Production resumed after the Winter Olympics. The iron and water production in this period was 2.0885 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 58,500 tons. The increase came from North China, and demand improved marginally. Considering that the current overall inventory is still at a historically high level and is suppressed by policy factors, it is difficult for the short-term mineral prices to be driven upward. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market.)
Steel
[Night trading review]
futures: RB2205 closed at 4636; HC2205 closed at 4822 yuan. The price difference between thread 5-10 closed at 171 yuan, and the price difference between hot coil 5-10 was 223 yuan. 05 contract screw roll difference of 186 yuan.
spot: Shanghai Zhongtian thread 4720 yuan (-70). Shanghai Bengang Hot Coil 4,860 yuan (-40).
[Important Information]
1. The leaders of the United States and the European Commission, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Canada decided to exclude some Russian banking from the Global Banking Financial Telecommunications Association (SWIFT) payment system. (Xinhua News Agency)
2. The Federal Reserve said that upward pressure on inflation caused by supply chain bottlenecks and strong demand continues to exist. The proportion of commodity categories with prices rising by 3% or more has exceeded 60%, but it is still lower than the proportion in the 1970s. In the coming period, once the supply chain disruption problem is resolved, a sharp rise in commodity prices may ease.
3, from February 17 to 24, the results of Centennial Construction Network surveyed the national 12099 project project. It showed that as of February 24 (the 24th day of the first lunar month), the national project resumption rate was 69.6%, a decrease of 17.3% from the same period of the lunar calendar last year, of which the resumption rate of real estate projects was 61.1%; the resumption rate of infrastructure construction was 78.2%, and the resumption rate of infrastructure construction was slightly better than that of housing construction projects. The areas with the rate of resumption of infrastructure work higher than the national average are East China, South China, Central China and Northwest China. The labor service labour rate is 56.5%, down 20.3%, and the resumption rate is expected to recover to about 80% this week.
[Trading Strategy]
threads The current high-frequency data basically supports the view that demand is lower than expected. It is restricted by the back-end sales of real estate and external financing, resulting in real estate companies acquiring land and having a lower desire to start work; the current demand for hot coils is better than threads, and the tendency of coiling and screw coiling and screw difference continues to expand. The supply side is still recovering poorly. Let’s observe whether molten iron can quickly rebound to above 220. It is likely that the two sessions and before the end of the Paralympic Games will be mainly oscillated.
unilateral: the midline thread back against the blast furnace cost 4900 every high.
arbitrage: wait and see
(the above views are for reference only and are not used as the basis for entry into the market)
coking coal coke
[Night trading review]
Futures: J2205 closed at 3241.5 yuan/ton, and JM2205 closed at 2574 yuan/ton.
Spot: Rizhao and Qingdao Port coke spot trade and current remittance warehouse: Quasi-first-level coke out-of-warehouse price is 3010, and the estimated coke warehouse order is about 3236 yuan/ton. The spot coke in Mongolia in Tangshan, Hebei is 2,805 yuan, and a single Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is about 2,805 yuan.
[Important Information]
[Fenwei Information] According to the Propaganda Department of the Qiannan Prefectural Committee of Guizhou Province, at around 8:40 am on February 25, 2022, an accident occurred in the Sanhe Shunxun Coal Mine, Longchang Town, Zhenfeng County, Guizhou, and it was initially judged that the roof collapsed. After preliminary verification, 14 people were trapped. After the incident, the relevant responsible persons of prefectures and counties in Guizhou Province immediately led personnel from mine supervision, energy, emergency, public security, health and other departments to the scene for emergency rescue. At present, all work is being carried out actively.
[Fenwei Information] Mongolian coal freight information, affected by the rise in coal prices, traders actively transported the goods. This week, the short-term freight fee stopped falling and rebounded. At present, the mainstream price of short-term (Chaganhada to Ganqimaodu ) is 850-900 yuan/ton, up 100-150 yuan/ton on the weekly basis; the middle-term (Mongolia Kengkou to Chaganhada) section has not been opened. In terms of domestic flow, a small amount of Mongolian coal resources flowed to Inner Mongolia Jiao Enterprises this week. At present, the transportation fee for the Hohhot Tou County in Wubulangkou is 90 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 10 yuan/ton from before the Spring Festival.
[Fenwei Information] Imported coking coal information, downstream actively purchases, and the port resources continue to decrease, the port quotation of imported resources has begun to rise. Currently, the spot quotation of Jingtang Port in the first-tier coal quasi-line Hong Kong and Macao is about 2,600 yuan/ton, up about 50 yuan/ton on the weekly basis; the spot quotation of Russian K4 is about 2,500 yuan/ton on the weekly basis, and the phenomenon of traders stolen goods and reluctance to sell goods has increased. In terms of forward non-Australia sea coal, affected by the conflict between , Russian and Ukraine, some resources have expected delayed delivery, the shortage of available resources has intensified, the forward quotations of sea coal continue to rise, and the gap in domestic and foreign returns has further widened.
[Trading Strategy]
2 overall fluctuations were relatively strong, the previous weak reality was strong, the early stage was weak and the high basis trend was relatively strong, and the later policy affected coal and iron ore, and steel demand was lower than expected, and the black series fell rapidly and sharply in the short term. Overall, the expectation of strong double-focused double-focused firmness in March is still full, mainly because the March heating season and the Winter Olympics are approaching, downstream steel coke enterprises are gradually resuming production, and the peak steel season is coming, steel mills are expected to resume production, the safety supervision of the two sessions of coal mines is strict, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is low; the basis of coke 05 contract is -58 yuan/ton, the basis of coke 05 contract is 95 yuan/ton, the profit of black coal mines is around 1,000 yuan, the profit of ton of coke is about 20 yuan, and the profit of long-process steel mills is about 300-600 yuan, and the profit of double-focused in the later stage is still mostly in the black coal system. Risk: Policy intervention price, thermal coal fell, Mongolian coal cleared sharply, steel mills increased production less than expected Poor steel demand (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
Wang Yingying
Investment consulting business certificate number: Z0014913
html l6 nickel and stainless steel
Last week, the war broke out in Russia and Ukraine, and basic non-ferrous metals reacted violently. The core logic returned to the expectations of European energy prices raising costs and related varieties sanctions. Aluminum and zinc ranked first in the weekly increase, copper and nickel trends were relatively weak, and London nickel surged and fell back to but did not form a significant downward trend.
macroscopic aspects come from the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war and tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Risk aversion sentiment has risen, but it also alleviated the pressure of some interest rate hikes. Overall, bulls and shorts are intertwined. Subsequent sanctions against Russia by Europe and the United States are the key factors affecting the trend of nickel prices. Especially after the sanctions involve the SWIFT system, the global circulation of Russian nickel was blocked.
fundamentals continue to differentiate at home and abroad, and the spot premium of LME is still at a historical high. Russian nickel is worried about the short squeeze operation that is taking place in the market. The foreign market still has the power to move upward, but domestic social inventory continues to increase, the decline in basis and the poor performance of stainless steel continue to drag down Shanghai nickel, and the price difference between and is temporarily difficult to repair. On the demand side, the stainless steel market transactions are weak, and the downstream does not recognize the current price. The market price falls at a price of 100 yuan/ton per day. The increase in arrivals and price declines suppress the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing goods.
nickel price surged and fell last week, but no significant downward trend was formed. Domestic and foreign power continued to diverge, and the possibility of price spreads returning in the short term is low.
Although the turbulence in the world has boosted risk aversion sentiment and the domestic basis has fallen, according to the LME destocking area and the tension in domestic nickel beans, especially the price of nickel ore has begun to rise, and there is still support below the nickel price. In the short term, nickel prices should maintain a high-level wide fluctuation pattern. The trend trend mainly relies on Russian nickel sanctions and domestic premium changes. This week, the London nickel operating range is temporarily viewed at US$23,400-25,100/ton, and the Shanghai nickel operating range is temporarily viewed at RMB171,000-180,000/ton. The price of stainless steel is still under pressure, and the resistance level is the 30-day moving average. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Copper
last Friday, closing at US$9,860/ton, up US$7/ton, an increase of 0.07%, with an increase of 1,618 lots to 252,000 lots. On the macro side, the West continues to increase its sanctions on Russia, the United States, Britain and Europe impose sanctions on Putin and himself, and kick some Russian banks out of SWIFT. EU is reported to ban all transactions with Russian Central Bank , and White House does not rule out the possibility of energy sanctions on Russia. The Russian army is progressing slowly under Ukraine's tenacious resistance. Putin ordered strategic nuclear forces to enter a high degree of combat readiness. The US Department of Defense said Putin's move may further escalate the situation. In terms of fundamentals, downstream consumption has not yet fully returned, and it is still in the warehouse in the first half of the month, and the warehouse volume will narrow. After the downstream restocking last week, it saw Shanghai copper falling continuously and entered a wait-and-see state, waiting for the market to fall back to around 69,000 before purchasing. On the unilateral side, the war between Russia and Ukraine is stalemate, and with the financial sanctions of European and American countries on Russia, European oil and gas transactions have been affected. The market expects Russia to transport copper to China. London copper is easy to rise but difficult to fall. internal trading may be weak. Shanghai copper is expected to run between 69500-72500. Spot companies are recommended to purchase with 69500 back. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
zinc
production cuts are less than expected Demand has not reached
[Market Analysis]
on Friday night market Shanghai zinc fluctuated and sorted out. In recent days, European energy prices rose sharply, but Shanghai zinc basically did not follow, but short-term decline is also difficult. The current logic of zinc lies in the logic of industrial production reduction and domestic macro demand, but on the one hand, the production reduction is actually not as expected. ILZSG data shows that in December 2021, the output of zinc concentrate was 1.1339 million tons, and the global concentrate cumulative output was 12.824 million tons; in December, the refined zinc output was 1.1859 million tons, with a total of 13.9356 million tons, which actually increased instead of decreasing, from 9.10 The actual impact of enterprises that began to rise sharply in the month and stated that they wanted to reduce production is average; on the other hand, prices have already reflected more expectations, and further increases require a larger gap, or the downstream has a high acceptance of the current price. In the later stage, it is necessary to focus on changes in inventory and downstream start-ups and implement terminal demand;
supply and demand mismatch, domestic ores on the supply side are kept tight, and the ratio of imported ores is not suitable cannot be entered, but at present, judging from the performance of Russia, Ukraine and Europe, the dispute is currently escalating, and energy prices continue to rise, but according to ILZSG data, the production cuts in the fourth quarter of last year were basically inferior to expectations; demand from the infrastructure end is expected to perform well this year, and it is uncertain that the demand on the real estate end needs, and we need to continue to pay attention to inventory, supply and demand gap, market sentiment, etc.
[Trading Strategy]
unilateral: The 20-day line has changed from a support line to a pressure line. The main logic is that it is trading demand, which opens high due to event-oriented impact, but the demand has not come yet, and the motivation for downward repair will be very strong. From the perspective of trading, high-price overdraft is overdrafted. There are many expectations, and the support of the 20-day line in the previous period has now been transformed into a pressure level. The current price is relatively weak. Pay attention to the operating rhythm (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
aluminum
supply shock has not yet ended Demand is suppressed by price, and the balance is again
[Market Analysis]
On Friday night trading was driven by a sharp drop in the foreign market. After a sharp drop in the foreign market, it opened sharply and slowly rose. The current situation is that the impact on the supply side is still continuing, and demand is suppressed by high prices. However, from the perspective of inventory, demand is slightly in a balanced state after it declines, so in this case, prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall.
fundamentals:
supply side: Operating capacity: Operating capacity is 39.75 million tons in the same period last year, and currently 38.6 million tons. The operating capacity repair speed is relatively rapid. It is expected to recover to about 39.5 million tons in May; the southwest region is currently under strong support from policies, and the resumption of production is very fast and the power is loose; although the Russian-Ukrainian incident will not directly punish Rusal, it has a great indirect impact, including the rising cost caused by energy, high energy prices in Europe, the tight supply of goods after the production cut in Europe, and the interruption of raw materials, resulting in the forced reduction of production (Russia has 66% of alumina produced overseas), and the forced delay of new production.
demand side: the resumption of work is average, the cost and high price negative feedback is in progress, the construction profile field is not very good due to the impact of the real estate industry. Due to the sharp rise in the price of natural gas and the high aluminum price, on the one hand, the orders are fewer, and downstream end users are afraid of highs and wait-and-see mentality also makes new orders continue to be delayed; on the other hand, the orders are polarized, and orders are concentrated in large enterprises, and processing plants are more inclined to purchase aluminum rods to reduce the cost of melting and casting, so recently, the aluminum rods are well out of stock; and from the perspective of the price difference of fine waste, the current die-casting industry The recovery is very poor; benefiting from the internal and external ratio and overseas tensions, export orders for plate and profiles are currently performing well;
raw material cost side: the supply chain crisis eases, the coal market price is currently at a high level. Against the backdrop of global energy tension, the price of thermal coal was suppressed by the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, but the market coal still remains at a high level; alumina resumes work and production after the end of the Winter Olympics, and the price resumes roasting, resulting in a sharp drop in prices in the short term; pre-baked anode is currently basically the same as thermal coal, maintaining the principle of cost pricing.
Big environment: industrial products range fluctuates, the supply shock caused by war has caused industrial products to rise, but the overall situation is still within the volatile range, and the current bullish trend has not ended;
[Trading Strategy]
High domestic prices have suppressed the procurement demand of terminals, but the initial supply climb is not enough to make up Fill in the gap, and the demand suppressed by high prices only achieves rebalancing. Therefore, under the weak balance structure, downstream procurement rhythm and overseas events will dominate the market, and absolute prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future; in addition, the high energy prices are conducive to downstream processing fees such as aluminum rods, and you can appropriately do more processing fees (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
Songyang
Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z00005 51
Asphalt
[Traffic Review]
BU03 contract closed at 3422 points yesterday (-1.89%), and closed at night 3400 points (-0.64%)
BU06 contract closed at 3488 points (-2.08%) yesterday, and closed at 3448 points (-1.15%)
[Important information]
Spot, the market demand in North China and Shandong has not been substantially released. Although the crude oil news is positive, the price of asphalt futures fell, the wait-and-see atmosphere on the market is strong, most refineries sign few orders, and shipments are slightly average. Some refineries have production plans at the end of the month, and the on-site resource supply level will increase. Yangtze River Delta market Sinopec individual refineries still stopped production, and the on-site resource supply level is relatively low. However, the terminal demand is average, most refineries have mediocre shipments, and the price of asphalt transactions is cautious and stable. (Hundred Rivers). Currently, Shandong asphalt spot 3370-3450, East China spot 3650-3750, South China spot 3520-3650.
refined oil benchmark price: Shandong local refining 92# gasoline +41 to 9330, 0# diesel +173 to 7746.
[Trading Strategy]
In the case of high uncertainty in oil prices and wide fluctuations, asphalt is more affected by domestic spot sentiment and operates weakly in the short term.If the supply side increases significantly as scheduled in March, the asphalt valuation will remain low. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, waiting for crude oil to stabilize and look for opportunities to go long. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Crude oil
[Taiwan Review]
Crude oil settlement price, WTI2204 contract 91.59 fell 1.22 US dollars per barrel or 1.31%; Brent2204 contract 97.93 fell 1.15 US dollars per barrel or 1.16%. SC2204 rose 19.9 to 621.8 yuan/barrel, and fell 32.9 to 588.9 yuan/barrel in the night market. Brent's first monthly difference is +0.49 to 4.01 US dollars/barrel
[Important information]
The situation in Russia and Ukraine has not yet been eased. The Russian army is progressing slowly under Ukraine's tenacious resistance. Putin ordered the strategic nuclear forces to enter a high degree of combat readiness. The US Department of Defense said Putin's move may further escalate the situation. Western sanctions on Russia continue to increase, the United States, Britain and Europe imposed sanctions on Putin himself, and kicked some Russian banks out of SWIFT. The EU is reportedly banning all transactions with the Russian Central Bank, and the White House does not rule out the possibility of energy sanctions on Russia.
The Federal Reserve's semi-annual policy report reiterates that the time for interest rate hikes is approaching "soon". The president of the St. Louis Fed continued to support a 100 basis point rate hike before July and believed that the situation in Russia and Ukraine had little impact on the economic outlook.
[Trading Strategy]
Although Western countries have not yet involved the energy field, after some Russian banks have proposed SWIFT, some Asian buyers have suspended purchases of Russian oil, and Urals discounts have continued to plummet. And due to the war, the shipping costs in the Black Sea region have risen sharply recently, and various signs show that Russia's crude oil exports have received a certain impact. The uncertainty about the development of the war is still high. The biggest benefit of oil prices comes from the further escalation of Western sanctions on Russia and the substantial damage to crude oil production and transportation, which has not yet been fulfilled. Oil prices also face negative negatives such as Fed rate hikes and Iran negotiations in the short term. It is expected that high fluctuations will remain, with unilateral high-level wide fluctuations, and the difference between the month and month has steadily strengthened. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
fuel oil
[Traffic review]
FU05 contract closed at 3394 points yesterday (-2.44%), and closed at 3262 points in the night market yesterday. (-3.89%)
LU05 contract closed at 4419 points yesterday (-1.73%), and closed at 4285 (-3.03%)
Singapore low sulfur 380 is estimated at 746.77 US dollars/ton, high sulfur 380 is estimated at 525.7 US dollars/ton, high sulfur 380 is estimated at 221 US dollars/ton, low sulfur-diesel price spread -108 US dollars/ton. The difference between low sulfur in March and April is 22.75 US dollars/ton, and the difference between high sulfur is 2 US dollars/ton.
[Important Information]
Last week, Singapore's fuel oil imports fell by 60% month-on-month, and exports increased by 6% month-on-month. Imports from the Americas, Russia and Africa fell to zero, while imports from the Middle East fell 77.5% month-on-month to 115,000 tons. Singapore traders say some fuel oil from the Middle East and Russia is mainly sent to the United States for local refineries as feed. As Russia's fuel oil shipments have been relatively low recently, short-term sanctions on Russia have not affected the supply of fuel oil in the face of the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
[Trading Strategy]
FU05 Internal and external price difference 0 US dollars/ton, LU05 Internal and external price difference -23 US dollars/ton. The internal fuel oil valuation is low. Against the backdrop of the sharp rise in oil prices last week, the decline in high sulfur cracking was significantly greater than that of low sulfur, reflecting that low sulfur was favored by refined oil to a certain extent. In the case of high fluctuations in crude oil and low-quality refined oil inventory, the high-low sulfur price difference is expected to run at a high level, and fuel oil fluctuates unilaterally and wide-rangely. It is recommended to take a light position to avoid risks.(The above views are for reference only and will not be used as a basis for entering the market)
pulp
[Review of the previous day]
futures market: high consolidation. The SP main 05 contract closed at 6678 points, down -26 points or -0.39%.
Spot Wood pulp Market: The supply of Russian pulp market in Northeast China is stable, downstream starts inadequate, broad-leaved pulp supply is slightly in short supply, and transactions are in urgent need. Market tax-inclusive reference quotation: Black Needle 6,600 yuan/ton. Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai imported chemical slurry market is consolidated at a high level, and the supply of external sales is tight, and the market is raised by about 100 yuan/ton. It is reported that some of the coniferized pulp in the market have tax-inclusive quotations of 4900-5000 yuan/ton ( Zhuochuang Information )
Spot cultural paper: Shandong Heze Hongtai Paper has average orders for glossy paper, and the price remains stable. Currently, the factory reference quotation including tax is 27g mixed grout paper with glossy paper 6,100 yuan/ton, and 38g glossy paper with glossy paper 5,300 yuan/ton. The trading of double tape paper market in Zouping, Shandong is limited, and the price range fluctuates. Currently, the cash reference price of 55-120g double tape paper with tax is about 5,700 yuan/ton. (Zhuochuang Information)
[Important Information]
quoted China Paper Media: According to the recent meeting organized by the "Ukrainian Association of Publishers and Booksellers"., the paper market in Ukraine is facing a catastrophic status. According to market participants, Ukraine's current annual paper demand is about 90,000 tons, but domestic production (mainly offset paper ) currently does not exceed 5,000 tons, most of which are produced by Zmievskaya and Korostyshevskaya paper mills. At the same time, the design capacity of Ukrainian papermaking enterprises is about 25,000 tons per year. In recent years, the paper industry has become unprofitable in Ukraine, resulting in a sharp decline in its output. Due to tensions in state relations, Ukraine has reduced imports from Russia and instead considered imports from the EU, China and South Africa, but these plans may face serious difficulties in implementing them due to the high prices and logistics costs of paper.
[Trading Strategy]
Domestic Coated Paper production line in February stock average inventory +1.27%, starts normally, and inventory increases. SP05 contract is in hand and takes profit and wait and see. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
natural rubber and No. 20 rubber
[Review of the previous day]
RU Related: RU main force 05 contract closed at 13870 points, down -85 points or -0.61%; Japan's main force 07 contract closed at 262.0 points, up +3.1 points or +1.20%. As of 12:00 the day before yesterday, Yunnan WF closed at 13,200-13,400 yuan/ton, the second landmark closed at 12,250-12,400 yuan/ton, Thailand cigarette tablets closed at 16,000-16,350 yuan/ton, and Vietnam 3L closed at 13,100-13,200 yuan/ton.
NR related: NR main force 05 contract closed at 11,675 points, down -150 points or -1.27%; Singapore's main force TF05 contract closed at 181.7 points, up +0.3 points or +0.17%. As of 18:00 the day before yesterday, the market price of USD 4 glue in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was firm. The cargo of cigarettes closed at US$2040-2060/ton, the spot in the Thai standard area closed at US$1825-1845/ton, the spot or near-port cargo of Horse standard or near-port cargo of US$1825-1835/ton, and the mixed spot or near-port cargo of Thai mixed spot or near-port cargo of US$1825-1835/ton.
synthetic glue related: North China butadiene 1502 quoted 12200-12300 yuan/ton. Sinopec's North China Qilu Shunding price was 13,300 yuan/ton. The price of East China butadiene is 8,500-8,700 yuan/ton.
[Important News]
quoted active news: Italian tire manufacturer Pirelli (Pirelli) released its 2021 results. The full-year revenue increased by +23.9% compared with 2020 to 5.3315 billion euros (growth +24.8%). Adjusted EBIT growth +62.8% to 815.8 million euros (501.2 million euros in 2020) and net profit was 321.6 million euros (42.7 million euros in 2020). The company expects revenue in 2022 to be between 5.6 billion and 5.7 billion euros, an increase of between +1.5% and ~+2.5%.
[Trading Strategy]
Thailand's rainfall increased over the weekend, with average daily output weighted rainfall closing at 9.22mm last Sunday. The cumulative rainfall in the past five weeks increased by +29.0%, and the previous value was +13.0%. As of last Friday: RU inventory subtotal closed 249,000 tons, 12,500 tons higher than inventory futures, with the rate of stock build-up slowing down by -3.3% on the weekly basis; NR inventory subtotal closed 94,100 tons, with the weekly basis building +2.3%. RU05 contract sells call options near 14750 points and holds , pay attention to the support at the early low of 13830 points; wait and see the NR05 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the early low of 11740 points. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
plastic
market review:
yesterday plastic surged and fell, L2205 closed at 8807 points, down 0.36% or 32 points, night trading plastic fell, L2205 closed at 8734 points, down 0.83% or 73 points.
Spot market:
Yesterday, the market price of LLDPE rose linearly, with the North China region rising 50-100 yuan/ton; the linear part of the East China region rose 50-100 yuan/ton; the linear part of the South China region rose 50-100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is between 8750-9050 yuan/ton.
Important information:
1) This week, the PE destocking was faster, with a total inventory destocking of 80,000 tons, of which 2 oil destocking was 59,000 tons, coal chemical destocking was 17,000 tons, traders destocking of 8,000 tons, and port inventory increased by 5,000 tons.
2) Today, the two oil inventory was 1.01.5, an increase of 100,000 tons month-on-month.
Trading strategy:
Currently, plastics are in a high inventory state, supply and demand are weak, but oil-based profits are close to losses, downstream profits are neutral, and PE valuation is low. Against the backdrop of strong short-term oil prices, PE is expected to fluctuate strongly. Oil-based profits have been low. If profits continue to be compressed in the future, the device will have expectations of production reduction, and there are not many new devices left in Q1, and the medium-term fluctuations are relatively strong. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
methanol
[Taiwan Review]
During the day last Friday, methanol futures also reduced their positions and fell due to the decline in thermal coal. They rose slightly at the end of the trading session. At night, they continued to fluctuate and rise after flattening, and finally closed at 2805 (-0.18%).
[Spot Quotes]
production location, under the expectation of demand recovery, the main production area shipments are smooth, the manufacturer's quotation continues to rise, the northwest and south lines are quotation 2,160 yuan/ton, and the north line is quotation 2,140 yuan/ton. Prices in Guanzhong area rose, with a quotation of 2,460 yuan/ton.
consumption place, the market has increased slightly, the market price of Shandong region is quoting 2,700 yuan/ton, Shandong quoting 2,600 yuan/ton, and the market price in Hebei region is rising, with a price of 2,530 yuan/ton.
Southwest region, the market transaction price has not changed much. The market price in Sichuan and Chongqing is quoting 2,650 yuan/ton, and Yunnan and Guizhou is quoting 2,600 yuan/ton.
port, the futures market fluctuated wide, and after the market fell back in the afternoon, the overall market transaction was acceptable. The market price in Taicang region was 2,820 yuan/ton, Ningbo region price was 2,900 yuan/ton, and 2,800 yuan/ton in Guangzhou, and the overall market atmosphere was average.
[Trading Strategy]
At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still tense, international oil prices have risen sharply, Brent crude oil breaks through US$100 per barrel, driving the overall energy-chemical product futures to rise sharply, and methanol futures are driven by this to fluctuate widely. However, the National Development and Reform Commission recently held a press conference to further clarify the fluctuation range of coal prices and announce the reasonable medium- and long-term trading prices in the coal mining output link in key areas, which will be implemented from May 1, 2022. Among them, Shanxi is 370-570 yuan/ton, Shaanxi is 320-520 yuan/ton, Mengxi 260-460 yuan/ton, and Mongoliandong 200-300 yuan/ton, thermal coal futures operate weakly, reducing methanol production costs.Overall, some devices in the market restarted this week, but the mainland market shipments were smooth and the quotations were strong. After the Winter Olympics, the downstream resumption of work in Shandong was strong and the transactions were good. In the short term, methanol will continue to fluctuate more strongly. Pay attention to the recovery of demand from coal and downstream markets. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
3 thermal coal
[Taiwan Review]
open in the morning, and thermal coal futures fluctuated mainly. In the afternoon, under the pressure of the National Development and Reform Commission's pit price limit news, the market significantly reduced its positions and fell, and hit the limit during the session. At night, the market fluctuated slightly after flattening, and finally closed at 763.4 (-1.19%).
[Spot Quotes]
Recently, the frequency of government regulation has accelerated. Shipping and mining companies are worried about being summoned. They currently take a wait-and-see attitude and suspend quotations, basically supplying old customers and long-term contract customers, and do not sell to the market. Supported by demand and cost, a few traders still supported the price, and the quotations were basically the same as yesterday. The mainstream quotation for the 5,500 big card market was 1,150-1,200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation for the 5,000 big card market was 1,030-1,080 yuan/ton. In terms of terminals, every Friday and this afternoon, the National Development and Reform Commission continued to hold coal-related meetings. The wait-and-see sentiment of terminal customers has increased slightly, and the urgent need for procurement and inquiries remained, and there was less new demand.
【Important Information】
2.26 to 3.4Shendong Outbound Purchase Price Adjustment
Shenyou1:917 (+81)
Shenyou2:890 (+78)
0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 Shenyou3:873 (+78)
Purchase 5500 (not purchased)
Purchase 5000:702 (+100)
Purchase 4500:603 (+103)
Purchase 4000:495 (+105).
[Trading Strategy]
Coal mines in Ordos area continue to resume work and production, production returns to a high level of more than 2.8 million tons, sales increase to 2.8 million tons, production and sales are booming, and pit prices continue to be strong. The traffic volume of Daqin Line rebounded to more than 1.2 million tons, the number of vehicles on the bureau has increased sharply, the port transfer has rebounded to more than 1.3 million tons, and the inventory has stabilized at 14.3 million tons. Daily consumption of terminal power plants continues to rebound. It is expected that coastal power plants will be centrally purchased and replenished in the near future, and the inventory of coastal power plants will continue to decrease. Over the weekend, Shenhua significantly raised the purchase price of pit outlets, and the inventory of Huanghua Port decreased to more than 1.5 million tons, making it difficult to collect coal. It is expected that pit outlets will continue to have support in the short term. However, the recent policy and control measures are dense, and long and short factors are intertwined, so it is recommended to wait and see. Pay close attention to policy regulation. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
PVC
market review:
last Friday PVC fluctuated weakly, V2205 closed at 8501 points, down 0.76% or 65 points, and the night trading PVC showed a volatile trend, V2205 closed at 8547 points, up 0.54% or 46 points.
Spot market:
Yesterday, the domestic PVC market price fluctuated and stabilized, the spot price ranged from 8650-8700, the market point price quotes were mainly, the point price ranged from 05 square meters to +100, Sanlian and Xinchuan 05-20/-30, Jinchuan, Salt Lake, Yihua, Yushe, Jintai 05+0/30, Zhongyan, Beiyuan, Ordos, Zhongtai, and Tianye 05+50/100, the five-type hanging price was around 8500-8600, the three-eight type point price ranged from +400, the ethylene method price ranged from 9100-9400, and the actual trading negotiations were mainly based on the market.
Important information:
1) Longzhong Information, last week, the price of calcium carbide bottomed out and began to rebound, and the mainstream ex-factory price in Wuhai area was 4,150 yuan/ton, and the shipments of manufacturers were smooth.
2) Longzhong data statistics show that as of February 27, the domestic PVC social inventory had 352,000 tons, an increase of 3.53% month-on-month and an increase of 1.47% year-on-year; of which 267,000 tons of social inventory in East China, an increase of 2.30% month-on-month and a decrease of 0.93% year-on-year. Iron ore | Steel | Coking Coal | Nickel & Stainless Steel | Copper | Zinc | Aluminum | Asphalt | Crude Oil | Fuel Oil | Pulp | Natural Rubber & No. 20 Glue | Plastic | Methanol | Steam Coal | PVC | PTA | PP | PF | MEG | EB
Chehongyun
Investment consulting business certificate number: Z0012165
Iron ore
[Night trading review]
futures : Futures iron ore i2205 closed at 694.5 yuan/ton, futures iron ore i2209 closed at 670.5 yuan/ton, iron ore 5-9 price difference is 24; spot: Qingdao Port PB powder price is 855-865 yuan/ton; Qingdao Port super special powder price is 515-525 yuan/ton, and the discount order is about 718.
[Important Information]
1. [Conference of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: Strengthen financial risk prevention and control, resolutely safeguard the overall financial stability] The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on February 25. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to strengthen the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee over financial work and unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics. We must strengthen financial risk prevention and control and resolutely safeguard the overall financial stability. We must strengthen the atmosphere of comprehensive and strict governance of the Party with strict discipline, implement the "two responsibilities", strengthen supervision of the "top leaders" and the leadership team, carry out special rectification of typical common problems such as violation of the spirit of the Central Eight Regulations and the " revolving door" of government and business, and promote the integration of not daring to be corrupt, not being able to be corrupt, and not wanting to be corrupt. We must innovate and improve the power supervision system and discipline enforcement system, so as to promote the punishment of corruption in the financial field and the handling of financial risks, to promote the serious pursuit of accountability and recovery of stolen assets and losses, and to establish systems and strengthen the implementation of systems. We must thoroughly implement the Party’s organizational line in the new era and strengthen the construction of the leadership team. We must deepen reforms in the financial field and continuously improve the modernization level of financial governance system and governance capabilities. Li Xinchuang, Party Secretary of
2, Metallurgical Industry Planning Research Institute, and Vice President of , said that according to recent reports in the industry, the crude steel production control policy in 2022 will continue, but the specific principles, regions, quantity and progress of regulation are still under in-depth research.
3. On February 25, Mysteel counted 15,886.57 imported iron ore inventory in 45 ports nationwide; the average daily port release volume was 293.79. In terms of component, Australia mine is 7583.09, Brazil mine is 5335.1, trade mine is 9232.3, pellet group is 473.15, fine powder is 1143.55, block mine is 2048.33, coarse powder is 12221.54; there are 130 ships in port. (Unit: 10,000 tons) Statistics the total imported iron ore inventory of 47 ports nationwide is 164.3657 million tons, and the average daily port discharge volume of 47 ports is 3.0709 million tons.
4. On February 24, Mysteel counted the total inventory of imported sintered powder from 114 steel mills in the new caliber was 33.1749 million tons, and the total daily consumption of sintered powder was 954,700 tons. The total inventory of imported sintered powder in 64 steel mills with original diameter was 15.6897 million tons, the total daily consumption of sintered powder was 473,200 tons, and the inventory consumption ratio was 33. The average ratio of imported ore used in sintered ore in was 86.39%. The average iron cost of steel mills excluding tax was 3,107 yuan/ton.
[Trading Strategy]
Last week's spot market price was relatively strongly supported by the resumption of production. Recently, the State Administration for Market Regulation has paid close attention to changes in iron ore prices. It will work with relevant departments to further increase market supervision, resolutely and severely punish illegal and irregular acts such as fabricating and distributing price increase information, hoarding, and price gouging, effectively maintaining normal market order and ensuring the smooth operation of iron ore prices. From a fundamental perspective, the resumption rate of construction sites after the holiday was lower than last year, which caused a decline in black prices. Production resumed after the Winter Olympics. The iron and water production in this period was 2.0885 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 58,500 tons. The increase came from North China, and demand improved marginally. Considering that the current overall inventory is still at a historically high level and is suppressed by policy factors, it is difficult for the short-term mineral prices to be driven upward. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market.)
Steel
[Night trading review]
futures: RB2205 closed at 4636; HC2205 closed at 4822 yuan. The price difference between thread 5-10 closed at 171 yuan, and the price difference between hot coil 5-10 was 223 yuan. 05 contract screw roll difference of 186 yuan.
spot: Shanghai Zhongtian thread 4720 yuan (-70). Shanghai Bengang Hot Coil 4,860 yuan (-40).
[Important Information]
1. The leaders of the United States and the European Commission, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Canada decided to exclude some Russian banking from the Global Banking Financial Telecommunications Association (SWIFT) payment system. (Xinhua News Agency)
2. The Federal Reserve said that upward pressure on inflation caused by supply chain bottlenecks and strong demand continues to exist. The proportion of commodity categories with prices rising by 3% or more has exceeded 60%, but it is still lower than the proportion in the 1970s. In the coming period, once the supply chain disruption problem is resolved, a sharp rise in commodity prices may ease.
3, from February 17 to 24, the results of Centennial Construction Network surveyed the national 12099 project project. It showed that as of February 24 (the 24th day of the first lunar month), the national project resumption rate was 69.6%, a decrease of 17.3% from the same period of the lunar calendar last year, of which the resumption rate of real estate projects was 61.1%; the resumption rate of infrastructure construction was 78.2%, and the resumption rate of infrastructure construction was slightly better than that of housing construction projects. The areas with the rate of resumption of infrastructure work higher than the national average are East China, South China, Central China and Northwest China. The labor service labour rate is 56.5%, down 20.3%, and the resumption rate is expected to recover to about 80% this week.
[Trading Strategy]
threads The current high-frequency data basically supports the view that demand is lower than expected. It is restricted by the back-end sales of real estate and external financing, resulting in real estate companies acquiring land and having a lower desire to start work; the current demand for hot coils is better than threads, and the tendency of coiling and screw coiling and screw difference continues to expand. The supply side is still recovering poorly. Let’s observe whether molten iron can quickly rebound to above 220. It is likely that the two sessions and before the end of the Paralympic Games will be mainly oscillated.
unilateral: the midline thread back against the blast furnace cost 4900 every high.
arbitrage: wait and see
(the above views are for reference only and are not used as the basis for entry into the market)
coking coal coke
[Night trading review]
Futures: J2205 closed at 3241.5 yuan/ton, and JM2205 closed at 2574 yuan/ton.
Spot: Rizhao and Qingdao Port coke spot trade and current remittance warehouse: Quasi-first-level coke out-of-warehouse price is 3010, and the estimated coke warehouse order is about 3236 yuan/ton. The spot coke in Mongolia in Tangshan, Hebei is 2,805 yuan, and a single Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is about 2,805 yuan.
[Important Information]
[Fenwei Information] According to the Propaganda Department of the Qiannan Prefectural Committee of Guizhou Province, at around 8:40 am on February 25, 2022, an accident occurred in the Sanhe Shunxun Coal Mine, Longchang Town, Zhenfeng County, Guizhou, and it was initially judged that the roof collapsed. After preliminary verification, 14 people were trapped. After the incident, the relevant responsible persons of prefectures and counties in Guizhou Province immediately led personnel from mine supervision, energy, emergency, public security, health and other departments to the scene for emergency rescue. At present, all work is being carried out actively.
[Fenwei Information] Mongolian coal freight information, affected by the rise in coal prices, traders actively transported the goods. This week, the short-term freight fee stopped falling and rebounded. At present, the mainstream price of short-term (Chaganhada to Ganqimaodu ) is 850-900 yuan/ton, up 100-150 yuan/ton on the weekly basis; the middle-term (Mongolia Kengkou to Chaganhada) section has not been opened. In terms of domestic flow, a small amount of Mongolian coal resources flowed to Inner Mongolia Jiao Enterprises this week. At present, the transportation fee for the Hohhot Tou County in Wubulangkou is 90 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 10 yuan/ton from before the Spring Festival.
[Fenwei Information] Imported coking coal information, downstream actively purchases, and the port resources continue to decrease, the port quotation of imported resources has begun to rise. Currently, the spot quotation of Jingtang Port in the first-tier coal quasi-line Hong Kong and Macao is about 2,600 yuan/ton, up about 50 yuan/ton on the weekly basis; the spot quotation of Russian K4 is about 2,500 yuan/ton on the weekly basis, and the phenomenon of traders stolen goods and reluctance to sell goods has increased. In terms of forward non-Australia sea coal, affected by the conflict between , Russian and Ukraine, some resources have expected delayed delivery, the shortage of available resources has intensified, the forward quotations of sea coal continue to rise, and the gap in domestic and foreign returns has further widened.
[Trading Strategy]
2 overall fluctuations were relatively strong, the previous weak reality was strong, the early stage was weak and the high basis trend was relatively strong, and the later policy affected coal and iron ore, and steel demand was lower than expected, and the black series fell rapidly and sharply in the short term. Overall, the expectation of strong double-focused double-focused firmness in March is still full, mainly because the March heating season and the Winter Olympics are approaching, downstream steel coke enterprises are gradually resuming production, and the peak steel season is coming, steel mills are expected to resume production, the safety supervision of the two sessions of coal mines is strict, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is low; the basis of coke 05 contract is -58 yuan/ton, the basis of coke 05 contract is 95 yuan/ton, the profit of black coal mines is around 1,000 yuan, the profit of ton of coke is about 20 yuan, and the profit of long-process steel mills is about 300-600 yuan, and the profit of double-focused in the later stage is still mostly in the black coal system. Risk: Policy intervention price, thermal coal fell, Mongolian coal cleared sharply, steel mills increased production less than expected Poor steel demand (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
Wang Yingying
Investment consulting business certificate number: Z0014913
html l6 nickel and stainless steel
Last week, the war broke out in Russia and Ukraine, and basic non-ferrous metals reacted violently. The core logic returned to the expectations of European energy prices raising costs and related varieties sanctions. Aluminum and zinc ranked first in the weekly increase, copper and nickel trends were relatively weak, and London nickel surged and fell back to but did not form a significant downward trend.
macroscopic aspects come from the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war and tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Risk aversion sentiment has risen, but it also alleviated the pressure of some interest rate hikes. Overall, bulls and shorts are intertwined. Subsequent sanctions against Russia by Europe and the United States are the key factors affecting the trend of nickel prices. Especially after the sanctions involve the SWIFT system, the global circulation of Russian nickel was blocked.
fundamentals continue to differentiate at home and abroad, and the spot premium of LME is still at a historical high. Russian nickel is worried about the short squeeze operation that is taking place in the market. The foreign market still has the power to move upward, but domestic social inventory continues to increase, the decline in basis and the poor performance of stainless steel continue to drag down Shanghai nickel, and the price difference between and is temporarily difficult to repair. On the demand side, the stainless steel market transactions are weak, and the downstream does not recognize the current price. The market price falls at a price of 100 yuan/ton per day. The increase in arrivals and price declines suppress the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing goods.
nickel price surged and fell last week, but no significant downward trend was formed. Domestic and foreign power continued to diverge, and the possibility of price spreads returning in the short term is low.
Although the turbulence in the world has boosted risk aversion sentiment and the domestic basis has fallen, according to the LME destocking area and the tension in domestic nickel beans, especially the price of nickel ore has begun to rise, and there is still support below the nickel price. In the short term, nickel prices should maintain a high-level wide fluctuation pattern. The trend trend mainly relies on Russian nickel sanctions and domestic premium changes. This week, the London nickel operating range is temporarily viewed at US$23,400-25,100/ton, and the Shanghai nickel operating range is temporarily viewed at RMB171,000-180,000/ton. The price of stainless steel is still under pressure, and the resistance level is the 30-day moving average. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Copper
last Friday, closing at US$9,860/ton, up US$7/ton, an increase of 0.07%, with an increase of 1,618 lots to 252,000 lots. On the macro side, the West continues to increase its sanctions on Russia, the United States, Britain and Europe impose sanctions on Putin and himself, and kick some Russian banks out of SWIFT. EU is reported to ban all transactions with Russian Central Bank , and White House does not rule out the possibility of energy sanctions on Russia. The Russian army is progressing slowly under Ukraine's tenacious resistance. Putin ordered strategic nuclear forces to enter a high degree of combat readiness. The US Department of Defense said Putin's move may further escalate the situation. In terms of fundamentals, downstream consumption has not yet fully returned, and it is still in the warehouse in the first half of the month, and the warehouse volume will narrow. After the downstream restocking last week, it saw Shanghai copper falling continuously and entered a wait-and-see state, waiting for the market to fall back to around 69,000 before purchasing. On the unilateral side, the war between Russia and Ukraine is stalemate, and with the financial sanctions of European and American countries on Russia, European oil and gas transactions have been affected. The market expects Russia to transport copper to China. London copper is easy to rise but difficult to fall. internal trading may be weak. Shanghai copper is expected to run between 69500-72500. Spot companies are recommended to purchase with 69500 back. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
zinc
production cuts are less than expected Demand has not reached
[Market Analysis]
on Friday night market Shanghai zinc fluctuated and sorted out. In recent days, European energy prices rose sharply, but Shanghai zinc basically did not follow, but short-term decline is also difficult. The current logic of zinc lies in the logic of industrial production reduction and domestic macro demand, but on the one hand, the production reduction is actually not as expected. ILZSG data shows that in December 2021, the output of zinc concentrate was 1.1339 million tons, and the global concentrate cumulative output was 12.824 million tons; in December, the refined zinc output was 1.1859 million tons, with a total of 13.9356 million tons, which actually increased instead of decreasing, from 9.10 The actual impact of enterprises that began to rise sharply in the month and stated that they wanted to reduce production is average; on the other hand, prices have already reflected more expectations, and further increases require a larger gap, or the downstream has a high acceptance of the current price. In the later stage, it is necessary to focus on changes in inventory and downstream start-ups and implement terminal demand;
supply and demand mismatch, domestic ores on the supply side are kept tight, and the ratio of imported ores is not suitable cannot be entered, but at present, judging from the performance of Russia, Ukraine and Europe, the dispute is currently escalating, and energy prices continue to rise, but according to ILZSG data, the production cuts in the fourth quarter of last year were basically inferior to expectations; demand from the infrastructure end is expected to perform well this year, and it is uncertain that the demand on the real estate end needs, and we need to continue to pay attention to inventory, supply and demand gap, market sentiment, etc.
[Trading Strategy]
unilateral: The 20-day line has changed from a support line to a pressure line. The main logic is that it is trading demand, which opens high due to event-oriented impact, but the demand has not come yet, and the motivation for downward repair will be very strong. From the perspective of trading, high-price overdraft is overdrafted. There are many expectations, and the support of the 20-day line in the previous period has now been transformed into a pressure level. The current price is relatively weak. Pay attention to the operating rhythm (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
aluminum
supply shock has not yet ended Demand is suppressed by price, and the balance is again
[Market Analysis]
On Friday night trading was driven by a sharp drop in the foreign market. After a sharp drop in the foreign market, it opened sharply and slowly rose. The current situation is that the impact on the supply side is still continuing, and demand is suppressed by high prices. However, from the perspective of inventory, demand is slightly in a balanced state after it declines, so in this case, prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall.
fundamentals:
supply side: Operating capacity: Operating capacity is 39.75 million tons in the same period last year, and currently 38.6 million tons. The operating capacity repair speed is relatively rapid. It is expected to recover to about 39.5 million tons in May; the southwest region is currently under strong support from policies, and the resumption of production is very fast and the power is loose; although the Russian-Ukrainian incident will not directly punish Rusal, it has a great indirect impact, including the rising cost caused by energy, high energy prices in Europe, the tight supply of goods after the production cut in Europe, and the interruption of raw materials, resulting in the forced reduction of production (Russia has 66% of alumina produced overseas), and the forced delay of new production.
demand side: the resumption of work is average, the cost and high price negative feedback is in progress, the construction profile field is not very good due to the impact of the real estate industry. Due to the sharp rise in the price of natural gas and the high aluminum price, on the one hand, the orders are fewer, and downstream end users are afraid of highs and wait-and-see mentality also makes new orders continue to be delayed; on the other hand, the orders are polarized, and orders are concentrated in large enterprises, and processing plants are more inclined to purchase aluminum rods to reduce the cost of melting and casting, so recently, the aluminum rods are well out of stock; and from the perspective of the price difference of fine waste, the current die-casting industry The recovery is very poor; benefiting from the internal and external ratio and overseas tensions, export orders for plate and profiles are currently performing well;
raw material cost side: the supply chain crisis eases, the coal market price is currently at a high level. Against the backdrop of global energy tension, the price of thermal coal was suppressed by the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, but the market coal still remains at a high level; alumina resumes work and production after the end of the Winter Olympics, and the price resumes roasting, resulting in a sharp drop in prices in the short term; pre-baked anode is currently basically the same as thermal coal, maintaining the principle of cost pricing.
Big environment: industrial products range fluctuates, the supply shock caused by war has caused industrial products to rise, but the overall situation is still within the volatile range, and the current bullish trend has not ended;
[Trading Strategy]
High domestic prices have suppressed the procurement demand of terminals, but the initial supply climb is not enough to make up Fill in the gap, and the demand suppressed by high prices only achieves rebalancing. Therefore, under the weak balance structure, downstream procurement rhythm and overseas events will dominate the market, and absolute prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future; in addition, the high energy prices are conducive to downstream processing fees such as aluminum rods, and you can appropriately do more processing fees (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
Songyang
Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z00005 51
Asphalt
[Traffic Review]
BU03 contract closed at 3422 points yesterday (-1.89%), and closed at night 3400 points (-0.64%)
BU06 contract closed at 3488 points (-2.08%) yesterday, and closed at 3448 points (-1.15%)
[Important information]
Spot, the market demand in North China and Shandong has not been substantially released. Although the crude oil news is positive, the price of asphalt futures fell, the wait-and-see atmosphere on the market is strong, most refineries sign few orders, and shipments are slightly average. Some refineries have production plans at the end of the month, and the on-site resource supply level will increase. Yangtze River Delta market Sinopec individual refineries still stopped production, and the on-site resource supply level is relatively low. However, the terminal demand is average, most refineries have mediocre shipments, and the price of asphalt transactions is cautious and stable. (Hundred Rivers). Currently, Shandong asphalt spot 3370-3450, East China spot 3650-3750, South China spot 3520-3650.
refined oil benchmark price: Shandong local refining 92# gasoline +41 to 9330, 0# diesel +173 to 7746.
[Trading Strategy]
In the case of high uncertainty in oil prices and wide fluctuations, asphalt is more affected by domestic spot sentiment and operates weakly in the short term.If the supply side increases significantly as scheduled in March, the asphalt valuation will remain low. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, waiting for crude oil to stabilize and look for opportunities to go long. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Crude oil
[Taiwan Review]
Crude oil settlement price, WTI2204 contract 91.59 fell 1.22 US dollars per barrel or 1.31%; Brent2204 contract 97.93 fell 1.15 US dollars per barrel or 1.16%. SC2204 rose 19.9 to 621.8 yuan/barrel, and fell 32.9 to 588.9 yuan/barrel in the night market. Brent's first monthly difference is +0.49 to 4.01 US dollars/barrel
[Important information]
The situation in Russia and Ukraine has not yet been eased. The Russian army is progressing slowly under Ukraine's tenacious resistance. Putin ordered the strategic nuclear forces to enter a high degree of combat readiness. The US Department of Defense said Putin's move may further escalate the situation. Western sanctions on Russia continue to increase, the United States, Britain and Europe imposed sanctions on Putin himself, and kicked some Russian banks out of SWIFT. The EU is reportedly banning all transactions with the Russian Central Bank, and the White House does not rule out the possibility of energy sanctions on Russia.
The Federal Reserve's semi-annual policy report reiterates that the time for interest rate hikes is approaching "soon". The president of the St. Louis Fed continued to support a 100 basis point rate hike before July and believed that the situation in Russia and Ukraine had little impact on the economic outlook.
[Trading Strategy]
Although Western countries have not yet involved the energy field, after some Russian banks have proposed SWIFT, some Asian buyers have suspended purchases of Russian oil, and Urals discounts have continued to plummet. And due to the war, the shipping costs in the Black Sea region have risen sharply recently, and various signs show that Russia's crude oil exports have received a certain impact. The uncertainty about the development of the war is still high. The biggest benefit of oil prices comes from the further escalation of Western sanctions on Russia and the substantial damage to crude oil production and transportation, which has not yet been fulfilled. Oil prices also face negative negatives such as Fed rate hikes and Iran negotiations in the short term. It is expected that high fluctuations will remain, with unilateral high-level wide fluctuations, and the difference between the month and month has steadily strengthened. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
fuel oil
[Traffic review]
FU05 contract closed at 3394 points yesterday (-2.44%), and closed at 3262 points in the night market yesterday. (-3.89%)
LU05 contract closed at 4419 points yesterday (-1.73%), and closed at 4285 (-3.03%)
Singapore low sulfur 380 is estimated at 746.77 US dollars/ton, high sulfur 380 is estimated at 525.7 US dollars/ton, high sulfur 380 is estimated at 221 US dollars/ton, low sulfur-diesel price spread -108 US dollars/ton. The difference between low sulfur in March and April is 22.75 US dollars/ton, and the difference between high sulfur is 2 US dollars/ton.
[Important Information]
Last week, Singapore's fuel oil imports fell by 60% month-on-month, and exports increased by 6% month-on-month. Imports from the Americas, Russia and Africa fell to zero, while imports from the Middle East fell 77.5% month-on-month to 115,000 tons. Singapore traders say some fuel oil from the Middle East and Russia is mainly sent to the United States for local refineries as feed. As Russia's fuel oil shipments have been relatively low recently, short-term sanctions on Russia have not affected the supply of fuel oil in the face of the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
[Trading Strategy]
FU05 Internal and external price difference 0 US dollars/ton, LU05 Internal and external price difference -23 US dollars/ton. The internal fuel oil valuation is low. Against the backdrop of the sharp rise in oil prices last week, the decline in high sulfur cracking was significantly greater than that of low sulfur, reflecting that low sulfur was favored by refined oil to a certain extent. In the case of high fluctuations in crude oil and low-quality refined oil inventory, the high-low sulfur price difference is expected to run at a high level, and fuel oil fluctuates unilaterally and wide-rangely. It is recommended to take a light position to avoid risks.(The above views are for reference only and will not be used as a basis for entering the market)
pulp
[Review of the previous day]
futures market: high consolidation. The SP main 05 contract closed at 6678 points, down -26 points or -0.39%.
Spot Wood pulp Market: The supply of Russian pulp market in Northeast China is stable, downstream starts inadequate, broad-leaved pulp supply is slightly in short supply, and transactions are in urgent need. Market tax-inclusive reference quotation: Black Needle 6,600 yuan/ton. Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai imported chemical slurry market is consolidated at a high level, and the supply of external sales is tight, and the market is raised by about 100 yuan/ton. It is reported that some of the coniferized pulp in the market have tax-inclusive quotations of 4900-5000 yuan/ton ( Zhuochuang Information )
Spot cultural paper: Shandong Heze Hongtai Paper has average orders for glossy paper, and the price remains stable. Currently, the factory reference quotation including tax is 27g mixed grout paper with glossy paper 6,100 yuan/ton, and 38g glossy paper with glossy paper 5,300 yuan/ton. The trading of double tape paper market in Zouping, Shandong is limited, and the price range fluctuates. Currently, the cash reference price of 55-120g double tape paper with tax is about 5,700 yuan/ton. (Zhuochuang Information)
[Important Information]
quoted China Paper Media: According to the recent meeting organized by the "Ukrainian Association of Publishers and Booksellers"., the paper market in Ukraine is facing a catastrophic status. According to market participants, Ukraine's current annual paper demand is about 90,000 tons, but domestic production (mainly offset paper ) currently does not exceed 5,000 tons, most of which are produced by Zmievskaya and Korostyshevskaya paper mills. At the same time, the design capacity of Ukrainian papermaking enterprises is about 25,000 tons per year. In recent years, the paper industry has become unprofitable in Ukraine, resulting in a sharp decline in its output. Due to tensions in state relations, Ukraine has reduced imports from Russia and instead considered imports from the EU, China and South Africa, but these plans may face serious difficulties in implementing them due to the high prices and logistics costs of paper.
[Trading Strategy]
Domestic Coated Paper production line in February stock average inventory +1.27%, starts normally, and inventory increases. SP05 contract is in hand and takes profit and wait and see. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
natural rubber and No. 20 rubber
[Review of the previous day]
RU Related: RU main force 05 contract closed at 13870 points, down -85 points or -0.61%; Japan's main force 07 contract closed at 262.0 points, up +3.1 points or +1.20%. As of 12:00 the day before yesterday, Yunnan WF closed at 13,200-13,400 yuan/ton, the second landmark closed at 12,250-12,400 yuan/ton, Thailand cigarette tablets closed at 16,000-16,350 yuan/ton, and Vietnam 3L closed at 13,100-13,200 yuan/ton.
NR related: NR main force 05 contract closed at 11,675 points, down -150 points or -1.27%; Singapore's main force TF05 contract closed at 181.7 points, up +0.3 points or +0.17%. As of 18:00 the day before yesterday, the market price of USD 4 glue in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was firm. The cargo of cigarettes closed at US$2040-2060/ton, the spot in the Thai standard area closed at US$1825-1845/ton, the spot or near-port cargo of Horse standard or near-port cargo of US$1825-1835/ton, and the mixed spot or near-port cargo of Thai mixed spot or near-port cargo of US$1825-1835/ton.
synthetic glue related: North China butadiene 1502 quoted 12200-12300 yuan/ton. Sinopec's North China Qilu Shunding price was 13,300 yuan/ton. The price of East China butadiene is 8,500-8,700 yuan/ton.
[Important News]
quoted active news: Italian tire manufacturer Pirelli (Pirelli) released its 2021 results. The full-year revenue increased by +23.9% compared with 2020 to 5.3315 billion euros (growth +24.8%). Adjusted EBIT growth +62.8% to 815.8 million euros (501.2 million euros in 2020) and net profit was 321.6 million euros (42.7 million euros in 2020). The company expects revenue in 2022 to be between 5.6 billion and 5.7 billion euros, an increase of between +1.5% and ~+2.5%.
[Trading Strategy]
Thailand's rainfall increased over the weekend, with average daily output weighted rainfall closing at 9.22mm last Sunday. The cumulative rainfall in the past five weeks increased by +29.0%, and the previous value was +13.0%. As of last Friday: RU inventory subtotal closed 249,000 tons, 12,500 tons higher than inventory futures, with the rate of stock build-up slowing down by -3.3% on the weekly basis; NR inventory subtotal closed 94,100 tons, with the weekly basis building +2.3%. RU05 contract sells call options near 14750 points and holds , pay attention to the support at the early low of 13830 points; wait and see the NR05 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the early low of 11740 points. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
plastic
market review:
yesterday plastic surged and fell, L2205 closed at 8807 points, down 0.36% or 32 points, night trading plastic fell, L2205 closed at 8734 points, down 0.83% or 73 points.
Spot market:
Yesterday, the market price of LLDPE rose linearly, with the North China region rising 50-100 yuan/ton; the linear part of the East China region rose 50-100 yuan/ton; the linear part of the South China region rose 50-100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is between 8750-9050 yuan/ton.
Important information:
1) This week, the PE destocking was faster, with a total inventory destocking of 80,000 tons, of which 2 oil destocking was 59,000 tons, coal chemical destocking was 17,000 tons, traders destocking of 8,000 tons, and port inventory increased by 5,000 tons.
2) Today, the two oil inventory was 1.01.5, an increase of 100,000 tons month-on-month.
Trading strategy:
Currently, plastics are in a high inventory state, supply and demand are weak, but oil-based profits are close to losses, downstream profits are neutral, and PE valuation is low. Against the backdrop of strong short-term oil prices, PE is expected to fluctuate strongly. Oil-based profits have been low. If profits continue to be compressed in the future, the device will have expectations of production reduction, and there are not many new devices left in Q1, and the medium-term fluctuations are relatively strong. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
methanol
[Taiwan Review]
During the day last Friday, methanol futures also reduced their positions and fell due to the decline in thermal coal. They rose slightly at the end of the trading session. At night, they continued to fluctuate and rise after flattening, and finally closed at 2805 (-0.18%).
[Spot Quotes]
production location, under the expectation of demand recovery, the main production area shipments are smooth, the manufacturer's quotation continues to rise, the northwest and south lines are quotation 2,160 yuan/ton, and the north line is quotation 2,140 yuan/ton. Prices in Guanzhong area rose, with a quotation of 2,460 yuan/ton.
consumption place, the market has increased slightly, the market price of Shandong region is quoting 2,700 yuan/ton, Shandong quoting 2,600 yuan/ton, and the market price in Hebei region is rising, with a price of 2,530 yuan/ton.
Southwest region, the market transaction price has not changed much. The market price in Sichuan and Chongqing is quoting 2,650 yuan/ton, and Yunnan and Guizhou is quoting 2,600 yuan/ton.
port, the futures market fluctuated wide, and after the market fell back in the afternoon, the overall market transaction was acceptable. The market price in Taicang region was 2,820 yuan/ton, Ningbo region price was 2,900 yuan/ton, and 2,800 yuan/ton in Guangzhou, and the overall market atmosphere was average.
[Trading Strategy]
At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still tense, international oil prices have risen sharply, Brent crude oil breaks through US$100 per barrel, driving the overall energy-chemical product futures to rise sharply, and methanol futures are driven by this to fluctuate widely. However, the National Development and Reform Commission recently held a press conference to further clarify the fluctuation range of coal prices and announce the reasonable medium- and long-term trading prices in the coal mining output link in key areas, which will be implemented from May 1, 2022. Among them, Shanxi is 370-570 yuan/ton, Shaanxi is 320-520 yuan/ton, Mengxi 260-460 yuan/ton, and Mongoliandong 200-300 yuan/ton, thermal coal futures operate weakly, reducing methanol production costs.Overall, some devices in the market restarted this week, but the mainland market shipments were smooth and the quotations were strong. After the Winter Olympics, the downstream resumption of work in Shandong was strong and the transactions were good. In the short term, methanol will continue to fluctuate more strongly. Pay attention to the recovery of demand from coal and downstream markets. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
3 thermal coal
[Taiwan Review]
open in the morning, and thermal coal futures fluctuated mainly. In the afternoon, under the pressure of the National Development and Reform Commission's pit price limit news, the market significantly reduced its positions and fell, and hit the limit during the session. At night, the market fluctuated slightly after flattening, and finally closed at 763.4 (-1.19%).
[Spot Quotes]
Recently, the frequency of government regulation has accelerated. Shipping and mining companies are worried about being summoned. They currently take a wait-and-see attitude and suspend quotations, basically supplying old customers and long-term contract customers, and do not sell to the market. Supported by demand and cost, a few traders still supported the price, and the quotations were basically the same as yesterday. The mainstream quotation for the 5,500 big card market was 1,150-1,200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation for the 5,000 big card market was 1,030-1,080 yuan/ton. In terms of terminals, every Friday and this afternoon, the National Development and Reform Commission continued to hold coal-related meetings. The wait-and-see sentiment of terminal customers has increased slightly, and the urgent need for procurement and inquiries remained, and there was less new demand.
【Important Information】
2.26 to 3.4Shendong Outbound Purchase Price Adjustment
Shenyou1:917 (+81)
Shenyou2:890 (+78)
0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 Shenyou3:873 (+78)
Purchase 5500 (not purchased)
Purchase 5000:702 (+100)
Purchase 4500:603 (+103)
Purchase 4000:495 (+105).
[Trading Strategy]
Coal mines in Ordos area continue to resume work and production, production returns to a high level of more than 2.8 million tons, sales increase to 2.8 million tons, production and sales are booming, and pit prices continue to be strong. The traffic volume of Daqin Line rebounded to more than 1.2 million tons, the number of vehicles on the bureau has increased sharply, the port transfer has rebounded to more than 1.3 million tons, and the inventory has stabilized at 14.3 million tons. Daily consumption of terminal power plants continues to rebound. It is expected that coastal power plants will be centrally purchased and replenished in the near future, and the inventory of coastal power plants will continue to decrease. Over the weekend, Shenhua significantly raised the purchase price of pit outlets, and the inventory of Huanghua Port decreased to more than 1.5 million tons, making it difficult to collect coal. It is expected that pit outlets will continue to have support in the short term. However, the recent policy and control measures are dense, and long and short factors are intertwined, so it is recommended to wait and see. Pay close attention to policy regulation. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
PVC
market review:
last Friday PVC fluctuated weakly, V2205 closed at 8501 points, down 0.76% or 65 points, and the night trading PVC showed a volatile trend, V2205 closed at 8547 points, up 0.54% or 46 points.
Spot market:
Yesterday, the domestic PVC market price fluctuated and stabilized, the spot price ranged from 8650-8700, the market point price quotes were mainly, the point price ranged from 05 square meters to +100, Sanlian and Xinchuan 05-20/-30, Jinchuan, Salt Lake, Yihua, Yushe, Jintai 05+0/30, Zhongyan, Beiyuan, Ordos, Zhongtai, and Tianye 05+50/100, the five-type hanging price was around 8500-8600, the three-eight type point price ranged from +400, the ethylene method price ranged from 9100-9400, and the actual trading negotiations were mainly based on the market.
Important information:
1) Longzhong Information, last week, the price of calcium carbide bottomed out and began to rebound, and the mainstream ex-factory price in Wuhai area was 4,150 yuan/ton, and the shipments of manufacturers were smooth.
2) Longzhong data statistics show that as of February 27, the domestic PVC social inventory had 352,000 tons, an increase of 3.53% month-on-month and an increase of 1.47% year-on-year; of which 267,000 tons of social inventory in East China, an increase of 2.30% month-on-month and a decrease of 0.93% year-on-year.The social inventory in South China was 85,000 tons, an increase of 7.59% month-on-month and 9.82% year-on-year.
Trading strategy:
From the perspective of valuation, PVC purchases calcium carbide method has a high profit, calcium carbide profit rebounds are still at a low level, and PVC valuation is relatively high. This week, PVC started to work stably and was at a low level in the same period, but inventory increased, demand side performed weakly, supply and demand were weak, upstream calcium carbide end dropped load, calcium carbide price stopped falling and rebounded, exports improved this week, PVC had support, and short-term price fluctuated. In the medium term, on the one hand, PVC is put into production at a low level on the supply side, and on the other hand, the demand side of real estate completion and infrastructure expectations are relatively good. In the medium term, it is recommended to be on a low level. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
PTA
[Taiwan Review]
Last Friday, the main contract of PTA2205 reduced its position and fell, closing at 5,708 yuan/ton (-86/-1.48%) on the day's trading, and 5,544 (-164/-2.87%) on the night trading. In terms of spot, the basis for goods in the main port has strengthened, with a contract of 05 of goods being reduced by 20 yuan/ton. There will be a transaction at 05 discount of 15 in mid-March, and there will be a transaction at 05 discount of 10 in mid-March. In March, the price focus of MOPJ negotiations rose sharply to around USD 889-890 (-11.5/-1.3%), and the PX estimated at USD 1111/ton CFR (-15/-1.3%).
[Important Information]
1, the 500,000 tons PX device in Kashima was unexpectedly stopped, and the restart time was not determined; Vietnam's NSRP was stopped due to a refinery fire, and the 700,000 tons PX device was stopped, which is expected to be about a week. The load of the 4.5 million tons of PTA device in Fu Chemical Industry and Trade plans to drop to 80% in early March, and the current load is 90%.
2. As of last Friday, the domestic PX operating rate was 76.1%, a week-on-month increase of 1.3%, a week-on-month increase of 77.4%, a week-on-month increase of 0.6%, a week-on-month increase of 91.9%, and a week-on-month increase of 2.1%. The average inventory of filament was 28.3 days, a week-on-month decrease of 1.8 days.
[Trading Strategy]
Last week, the PTA basis strengthened, the PTA device restart operating rate rebounded slightly, the polyester load increased to a high of 92% during the same period, and the inventory of polyester finished products fell slightly. Due to the significant compression of PTA processing costs and the expansion of losses, the maintenance of TA devices in March decreased and increased the negative, polyester starts to rise steadily, and TA supply and demand are expected to improve. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
3PP
market review:
PP surged and fell last Friday, PP2205 closed at 8540 points, up 0.44% or 37 points, and the night trading PP showed a volatile trend, PP2205 closed at 8513 points, down 0.32% or 27 points.
Spot market:
Most of the domestic PP markets rose yesterday, with an increase of around 100 yuan/ton. The prices of upstream products have risen strongly, driving the energy sector to be consolidated and warm. The main force of PP futures has run at a high level, and spot sentiment has been boosted. The ex-factory prices have risen steadily, and traders have mostly followed up in the quota. Downstream terminals are cautious in taking over the market, focusing on real-time negotiations. The mainstream price of wire drawing in North China is 8450-8500 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of wire drawing in East China is 8500-8650 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of wire drawing in South China is 8530-8700 yuan/ton.
Important information:
1) This week, the PP was destocked faster, with a total inventory destocking of 58,000 tons, of which 54,000 tons of oil were destocked, 7,000 tons of coal chemical destocking, traders' inventory increased by 1,000 tons, and the port accumulated inventory was 1,000 tons.
2) Today, the two oil inventory was 1.01.5, an increase of 100,000 tons month-on-month.
Trading strategy:
Currently, the profit of oil-made PP is compressed to losses, PDH is even more lossy, propylene-made PP is also losing money, imports are inverted, and various production processes have low profits or even losses, and the PP valuation is very low. Against the backdrop of strong short-term oil prices, PP is expected to fluctuate strongly. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
PF
[Taiwan Review]
Last Friday, the main contract of PF2205 surged and fell, closing at 7612 (-76/-0.99%) on the day's trading, and closed at 7392 (-220/-2.89%) on the night trading.In terms of spot, Jiangsu and Zhejiang semi-optical 1.4D mainstream 7400-7650/ton will be shipped out of the factory or short-term delivery, Fujian semi-optical 1.4D mainstream 7400-7600 yuan/ton will be delivered, Shandong and Hebei will be delivered at 7450-7650 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
last week's short fiber operating rate was 85%, a week-on-month decrease of 0.8%, a week-on-month increase of 6%, a week-on-month increase of 6%, a week-on-month inventory of staple fiber was 14.3 days, a week-on-month decrease of 4.1 days, a week-on-month inventory of raw materials in polyester mills was 21 days, a week-on-month increase of 5.8 days, a week-on-month inventory of pure polyester yarn finished products was 5.3 days, a week-on-month decrease of 1.5 days.
[Trading Strategy]
Last week, the base of short fibers was stable, processing fees fell, production and sales improved, the start of short fiber factories fell slightly, inventory fell at a high level, downstream pure polyester yarn operation rate increased rapidly, finished product inventory was relatively low, and raw material inventory in polyester yarn mills rose. After the replenishment of stocks, the raw material inventory of the spinning mill is relatively high. When the orders do not improve significantly, the replenishment rhythm in the later stage may slow down, which will in turn bring phased suppression on the price of staple fiber. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
MEG
[Taiwan Review]
Last Friday, the main contract of EG2205 futures fell sharply, closing at 5005 (-123/-2.4%) on the day's trading session and closing at 4916 (-89/-1.78%) on the night trading session. In terms of spot, the MEG basis is stable. The basis of the contract of 05 in the morning is about 90-105 yuan/ton, and the basis of the futures in March is about 50-55 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price within the day is 4890-5030 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
The overall domestic ethylene glycol start-up load was 69.19% last week, a week-on-month decrease of 0.92%, of which the coal-to-ethylene glycol start-up load was 58.24%, a week-on-month decrease of 0.63%.
[Trading Strategy]
MEG basis was stable last week, the operating rate fell slightly, port inventory rose month-on-month, polyester load increased month-on-month, and polyester finished product inventory fell slightly. The pressure of accumulated inventory brought about by port inventory under weak supply and demand still needs time to alleviate. There are many new MEG devices in the later stage, and the pressure of accumulated inventory may continue. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
EB
[Traffic review]
Last Friday E The main contract of B2204 fluctuated weakly, closing at 9264 (-108/-1.15%) on the day, closing at 9266 (+2/+0.02%) on the night market, rising prices in spot prices. Jiangsu styrene self-picking price was 9180-9250 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton on the month-on-month, down 110 yuan/ton on the month-on-month, down 9250-9350 yuan/ton on the month-on-month, down 100 yuan/ton on the month-on-month, and the styrene self-picking price in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei market was 8850-8900 yuan/ton on the month-on-month, up 50 yuan/ton on the month-on-month. CFR China's styrene market closed at US$1265-1270/ton (-10/-0.8%). CFR China's pure benzene market closes 1090-1095 yuan/ton (-17.5/-1.6%).
[Important Information]
1. Last week's styrene operating rate was 81.31%, an increase of 0.71% on the week-on-month
2. Last week, the total inventory of styrene East China main port fell by 7,000 tons to 170,000 tons, and the spot commodity volume of East China main port decreased by 6,500 tons to 117,700 tons; the total inventory of production enterprises decreased by 8,600 tons to 166,400 tons compared with last week. The trade volume of pure benzene ports in East China was 174,600 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons from February 16, a decrease of 1.91%.
[Trading Strategy]
styrene started to increase last week, the basis strengthened, the inventory of pure benzene and styrene main ports decreased, and the losses of non-integrated devices narrowed. In terms of supply, the maintenance plan for the 600,000 tons/year installation of styrene Zhejiang Petrochemical was postponed to March. The supply in the international market was tight, export loading increased, downstream construction resumed rapidly, supply and demand improved, and there is still a possibility of destocking when the arrival is stable. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
[Important Information]
last week's short fiber operating rate was 85%, a week-on-month decrease of 0.8%, a week-on-month increase of 6%, a week-on-month increase of 6%, a week-on-month inventory of staple fiber was 14.3 days, a week-on-month decrease of 4.1 days, a week-on-month inventory of raw materials in polyester mills was 21 days, a week-on-month increase of 5.8 days, a week-on-month inventory of pure polyester yarn finished products was 5.3 days, a week-on-month decrease of 1.5 days.
[Trading Strategy]
Last week, the base of short fibers was stable, processing fees fell, production and sales improved, the start of short fiber factories fell slightly, inventory fell at a high level, downstream pure polyester yarn operation rate increased rapidly, finished product inventory was relatively low, and raw material inventory in polyester yarn mills rose. After the replenishment of stocks, the raw material inventory of the spinning mill is relatively high. When the orders do not improve significantly, the replenishment rhythm in the later stage may slow down, which will in turn bring phased suppression on the price of staple fiber. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
MEG
[Taiwan Review]
Last Friday, the main contract of EG2205 futures fell sharply, closing at 5005 (-123/-2.4%) on the day's trading session and closing at 4916 (-89/-1.78%) on the night trading session. In terms of spot, the MEG basis is stable. The basis of the contract of 05 in the morning is about 90-105 yuan/ton, and the basis of the futures in March is about 50-55 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price within the day is 4890-5030 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
The overall domestic ethylene glycol start-up load was 69.19% last week, a week-on-month decrease of 0.92%, of which the coal-to-ethylene glycol start-up load was 58.24%, a week-on-month decrease of 0.63%.
[Trading Strategy]
MEG basis was stable last week, the operating rate fell slightly, port inventory rose month-on-month, polyester load increased month-on-month, and polyester finished product inventory fell slightly. The pressure of accumulated inventory brought about by port inventory under weak supply and demand still needs time to alleviate. There are many new MEG devices in the later stage, and the pressure of accumulated inventory may continue. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
EB
[Traffic review]
Last Friday E The main contract of B2204 fluctuated weakly, closing at 9264 (-108/-1.15%) on the day, closing at 9266 (+2/+0.02%) on the night market, rising prices in spot prices. Jiangsu styrene self-picking price was 9180-9250 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton on the month-on-month, down 110 yuan/ton on the month-on-month, down 9250-9350 yuan/ton on the month-on-month, down 100 yuan/ton on the month-on-month, and the styrene self-picking price in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei market was 8850-8900 yuan/ton on the month-on-month, up 50 yuan/ton on the month-on-month. CFR China's styrene market closed at US$1265-1270/ton (-10/-0.8%). CFR China's pure benzene market closes 1090-1095 yuan/ton (-17.5/-1.6%).
[Important Information]
1. Last week's styrene operating rate was 81.31%, an increase of 0.71% on the week-on-month
2. Last week, the total inventory of styrene East China main port fell by 7,000 tons to 170,000 tons, and the spot commodity volume of East China main port decreased by 6,500 tons to 117,700 tons; the total inventory of production enterprises decreased by 8,600 tons to 166,400 tons compared with last week. The trade volume of pure benzene ports in East China was 174,600 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons from February 16, a decrease of 1.91%.
[Trading Strategy]
styrene started to increase last week, the basis strengthened, the inventory of pure benzene and styrene main ports decreased, and the losses of non-integrated devices narrowed. In terms of supply, the maintenance plan for the 600,000 tons/year installation of styrene Zhejiang Petrochemical was postponed to March. The supply in the international market was tight, export loading increased, downstream construction resumed rapidly, supply and demand improved, and there is still a possibility of destocking when the arrival is stable. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
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