Click on the blue word above, follow 21 Jun~
Entertain everything in economic life
Introduction: The sixth day of the Lunar New Year is the last day of the holiday for many people. It’s time to calm down and pay attention to the big news in the capital market!
Source丨Wind Information
Tomorrow's seventh day of the Chinese New Year (February 22), global investors will focus on the following two major events:
The Federal Reserve will release the January FOMC meeting minutes
0At 3 a.m. Beijing time, investors will closely monitor the minutes of the January monetary policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve. The views on the tone of the monetary policy members in the minutes of this meeting may be the focus of the market.
In a January meeting statement, the Federal Reserve predicted that U.S. inflation will rise this year, and the Federal Reserve released the hawkish tone to continue to raise interest rates this year. Market insiders interpret this as a prelude to a rate hike in March.
CME "Federal Observation" predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 1.5%-1.75% in March this year is 80.3%, and the probability of going to this range from June to this range is 32.7%.
Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester said last week that Trump's government tax cuts have increased the upside risk of the U.S. economic outlook, but she believes that gradual interest rate hikes are still the right path. At the same time, she also stressed that the recent stock market turmoil will not affect the economic or interest rate outlook.
The "number 3" of the Federal Reserve and New York Fed Chairman Dudley insisted on hikes in his recent speech. Dudley said in early February that "it is too early to predict whether this year will be increased once, twice, three times or four times. The expected median rate hike in 2018 announced after the FOMC meeting in December last year seems to be a very reasonable forecast." But he also reminded that based on changes in the economic outlook, this pace may be accelerated or slowed down.
San FranciscoFederal Chairman Williams also said recently that data released on February 2 showed that the U.S. hourly wage increased by 2.9% in January, a considerable increase, confirming the strong performance of the economy. He reiterated that he expects a rate hike three to four times this year.
Market forecast
Credit Suisse economist James Sweeney said last week that large direct spending from the U.S. government could lead to higher short-term economic growth rates, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates four times this year instead of three originally expected.
As the January FOMC meeting was held before "strong wage and CPI growth data and fiscal expenditure plan passed", Credit Suisse said, "the minutes of the meeting may not reflect the committee's latest views on economic growth and inflation." Credit Suisse analysts expect the first rate hike in 2018 to be announced in the FOMC statement on March 21, and expect a three-degree rate hike in 2018.
Nomura Securities analysts expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates four times this year. Nomura Securities believes that as the labor market tightens and the economy grows moderately, core inflation is expected to gradually rebound; it is expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates four times in 2018 and twice in 2019, while continuing to reduce the balance sheet of and . The Trump administration's sharply worsening fiscal situation and "aggressive" trade policies will lead to significant risks.
In recent research reports, Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Tom Porcelli wrote that the minutes of the FOMC January 31 released on February 21 are likely to be interpreted as "a narrative that strengthens the strong inflation situation" because of "market obsession with inflation."
Goldman Sachs Asset Management also said that the Fed may raise interest rates four times this year, rather than about three times as generally expected by the market.
Feder officials will make intensive statements
In addition to the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, investors will also focus on the speeches of a large number of Fed officials this week. According to the existing arrangements, eight senior Federal Reserve officials may make speeches this week, most of whom have voting committee members.
The votes to make speeches this week include New York Fed Chairman Dudley, Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic, San Francisco Fed Chairman Williams and Fed Vice Chairman of Financial Regulation Quarles. The market expects their remarks to have a significant impact on the trend of the US dollar.
President of the Philadelphia Fed will attend the Edward Jones breakfast meeting in St. Louis on February 21, when it will give a speech on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
21 On the evening of Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is expected to attend the Minneapolis Fed's speech and answer audience questions.
htmlOn the evening of 22nd, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will attend the 2018 Banking Outlook Conference, and will also answer questions from audiences. htmlOn the 23rd, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will attend a seminar on the "Review of Monetary Policy Goals" held in New York. Will the US dollar strengthen in?
Federal officials' views on inflation issues will receive key attention from the market. Many institutions believe that if policymakers believe inflation is rising too quickly, they will be more aggressive in raising interest rates. This could drive the dollar to strengthen. Rising interest rates may drive investment funds from stocks to the dollar, pushing up borrowing costs for investors and businesses, and upward inflation may also erode profit margins.
(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal APP)
JPMorgan recently stated that compared with the rise in global stock markets, the US dollar is falling for almost any asset. George Saravelos, a foreign exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank, also recently pointed out that U.S. Treasury bond yields have risen sharply, while the dollar is so weak and attracts attention.
TD Securities said that in the entire foreign exchange market, the decline in the US dollar is related to the transfer of capital flows to a certain extent. In fact, in addition to the huge current account surplus, demand for overseas assets in the euro zone and Japan is also rising.
How will the US stock go?
Dowd Securities believes that the weakening of the dollar is a continuing positive for the U.S. stock market and the broader emerging markets, as many S&P 500 companies are global and their overseas revenues are driven by depreciation of their local currency. This helps explain the rebound in the U.S. and global stock markets.
(picture from Wind Financial Terminal APP)
(picture from Wind Financial Terminal APP)
(picture from Wind Financial Terminal APP)
Alan Ruskin of Deutsche Bank said that the weakness of the dollar combined with tax reform and the stimulus of fiscal growth still poses a high support for the U.S. stock market.
Commodity What will happen in the later stage
Last Friday, the Fed may accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes. The US dollar index rebounded from a three-year low, as investors worried that US inflation might accelerate. The dollar exchange rate remained basically stable the next day, and the dollar rose slightly against major currencies. The industry believes that a weaker dollar can boost dollar-denominated commodities because it makes them cheaper for other currencies holders.
The minutes of the ECB January meeting will be released on the 22nd
In addition to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January FOMC meeting, the minutes of the ECB January meeting are also one of the market's focus.
At 20:30 Beijing time on February 22, the ECB will release the minutes of the January meeting. This minutes may further illustrate the time from the end of QE. ECB Executive Committee Coeure previously pointed out that the ECB will discuss policy rhetoric in the early days of 2018. ECB Management Committee Visco previously stated that the ECB will remain patient in achieving inflation targets.
The minutes of the ECB's December meeting released last week said that the ECB may consider gradually adjusting its guidance starting from early 2018. The ECB sees some positive signals from the wage dynamics, but inflation remains a concern. The ECB agrees that if the reinflation trend continues, communication must be changed.
CITIC Securities Mingming Research Team pointed out in a research report on January 16 that as the indicator that the ECB is most concerned about, the relative sluggish inflation may hinder the start of the process of "gradual adjustment forward-looking guidance". It is unlikely that the euro zone will start to raise interest rates in the short term and will not have an impact on my country. Currently, the institution remains unchanged as expected that the 10-year Treasury yield will fluctuate between the 3.8% and 4.0%.
(This article does not represent the views of 21st Century Business Herald. Investment is risky, and you can bear the risk of entering the market)
What do you think about the future trend of US stocks, US dollar and euro?
million readers are watching...
"Bite of the Tongue 3" is on the air, and the whole country is being planted in a slaughter! The first batch of "iron pot purchasing agents" have appeared...
This issue editor Li Yutong
Old men, give 21jun a like before leaving~
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-