According to the "Huaxia Jingwei Network" report on December 18, on the morning of the 16th, an academic seminar on the development of Taiwan's political situation and cross-strait relations after the "nine-in-one" elections hosted by Nanjing University Taiwan Research Institute and Jiangsu Taiwan Research Center opened at the Nanjing University International Conference Center. Lian Buming, vice president of the China Cross-Strait Affairs Exchange Association, expressed his views on the phenomenon of Han Kuo-yu and the "nine-in-one" defeat of the DPP. He believes that in addition to having personal characteristics, the so-called "Korean Wave" is actually more of a gift from the DPP's ruling team. Rather than saying that Chen Chi-mai was defeated by the Korean Wave, it was better to say that he was defeated by his own ruling team. This is one of the key factors that made the Korean Wave successfully break through and Kaohsiung change the situation.
Lian Buming, Vice President of the China Cross-Strait Affairs Exchange Association Picture | China Jingwei.com
He said that the Korean wave hurricane caused by the Han Dynasty phenomenon not only reversed Kaohsiung, where the Democratic Progressive Party in South Taiwan, but also played the spillover and diffusion effect of the hens and chickens due to its high popularity indicators of the Internet, leading to the Kuomintang's great victory in this local election. Han Kuo-yu's political language and personality are full of populist characteristics. In just one year, an outsider participated in the Hong Kong mayoral election. The election momentum is crowded and called the "People's Uprising" and "Locomotive Revolution", which is beyond the reach of traditional politicians. However, Han Kuo-yu completed this "impossible task" that the Kuomintang wanted to accomplish in the past 20 years. But can these factors alone really lead to the DPP’s defeat in this general election? Is this really the case? Lian Buming gave his own observations for this.
He pointed out that "votees rejected ideology but chose populism." First, "Korean wave" is actually just a torrent of public resentment. First of all, this time the general environment is not conducive to all candidates of the DPP, just like the general environment in 2014 that the Kuomintang candidates were not favorable to the Kuomintang. That year, the DPP unexpectedly won Keelung City , Taoyuan City and Hsinchu City. Secondly, Han Kuo-yu used a very simple slogan to shape himself into an outlet for public grievances, fully absorbing votes that were dissatisfied with the DPP's rule.
Secondly, the Han Kuo-yu phenomenon is related to the rise of populist politics. He said that the emergence of populism is related to direct democracy and is basically not anti-democracy. However, because it resorts to the mass line, exaggerates, caters to the people's appetite, and attracts popularity, many policies have not been fully demonstrated but blurted out or implemented casually, and failed to consider the specific feasibility of the policies. At present, the politics of countries around the world are generally populism. Its rise comes from the polarization of the rich and poor around the world, creating a sense of relative deprivation, spreading through new online media, providing its social mobilization basis. Popular politicians have the characteristics of "anti-system" and "de-establishment", and can effectively mobilize and obtain support from the people at the bottom and grassroots level. The masses are looking forward to the arrival of the savior due to collective setbacks.
Lian Buming said that the Democratic Progressive Party was defeated in the 2018 local elections in Taiwan, but "it was not a great victory for the Kuomintang, but a victory for the local faction." The Democratic Progressive Party has only six counties and cities left, and the counties and cities that the Kuomintang can reverse are almost all relying on factional combat. After two defeats in 2014 and 2016, the Kuomintang was in a slump. After another six months of fighting with the party chairman, it did not adjust or major reform in the party line. In addition, under the full rule of the Democratic Progressive Party, the Kuomintang seemed to be crumbling through the establishment of the "Improper Party Property Handling Committee" and the "Promotion of Transfers". But the 2018 local election unexpectedly gave the Kuomintang a chance to be reborn. The reason is by no means just the factor of "the DPP Central Committee is not ineffective in governing". The party candidates nominated by the Kuomintang in 2018 can be roughly divided into two types: one is faction or family nomination, and the other is nomination by the Kuomintang Central Committee. Among them, faction nominations include: Miaoli Xu Yaochang of the Huang faction, Hsinchu County Yang Wenke supported by Qiu Jingchun, Changhua Wang Jinping assisted in the settlement of various factions, Wang Huimei launched by Yunlin Zhang Lishan is Zhang Rongwei's sister, Chiayi City Huang Minhui, Huang Minhui, head of the Rao family in Taitung, Rao Qingling of Fu Kunqi's wife, Xu Zhenwei of Hualien, Gao Sibo, son of Gao Yuren, etc. In addition, there are Han Kuo-yu supported by Kaohsiung White Sect and Lu Xiuyan supported by the Red and Black factions.
To sum up, the Kuomintang is still able to survive and be competitive with the loss of party assets, and Wang Jinping has been operating these local forces for a long time when he served as the "Legislative Yuan President". In the past, when Ma Wang competed for the chairman of the party, Wang formed an alliance with local factions to fight against Ma, and Wang Jinping suffered a tragic defeat. Since then, local factions have been suppressed by Ma Ying-jeou's authorities, but after the 2014 political tsunami and the 2016 party rotation, it is a down-to-earth local faction. In the 2018 "general election", Wang Jinping worked hard to help candidates from many counties and cities appease or win over opposition factions, and even contributed money and efforts. He was booed by villagers several times at the Han Kuo-yu's sensation venue, but he still endured it. Wang Jinping became the biggest behind the Kuomintang’s victory this time, and also made Wang’s 2020 “general election” more powerful.
(text丨Huang Yang)
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