text/Xie Yifeng
Reduction of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, talent settlement, Housing subsidies , tax and fee reduction, down payment reduction order, down payment reduction, three children and farmers buying houses, relaxation of purchase restrictions, monetization of shantytown renovation, housing ticket resettlement, one-person home purchase family help and other policies, the city rescue shock wave after wave.
The previous wave of 13 (15 in total, not cancelled in Shanghai and Shenzhen) has completely canceled the second-hand housing guidance price system, and the market rescue shock wave has not stopped.
The current new round of full-scale relaxation of the real estate market purchase restrictions is coming, and it officially launches a signal of a climax in the market and a three-stability stability. Its intention is to create opportunities for the real estate market in the golden September and silver October, create conditions for real estate companies to save themselves, and help the real estate market bottom out, bottom out, and recover.
3 March 1, Zhengzhou fully lifted purchase restrictions in a targeted manner, and the whole city liberalized sales restrictions in
April 1, Quzhou Allocated purchase restrictions in a city and sold
April 2, Qinhuangdao Allocated purchase restrictions in a city and sold
April 4, Lanzhou fully lifted purchase restrictions in a targeted manner, and the whole city liberalized sales restrictions in a city and sold
4 April 29, Shenyang City liberalized purchase restrictions in a city and sold
4 April 29, Shenyang City liberalized purchase restrictions in a city and sold
html l25 May 23, Harbin lifted targeted purchase restrictions
9 September 8, Ningbo City lifted purchase restrictions
September 14, Suzhou City lifted purchase restrictions
September 15, Qingdao City lifted purchase restrictions
The author believes that after the intermittent adjustment of toothpaste-style real estate policy in the first half of the year, the economy, real estate, local governments and finance can no longer withstand it, and finally played one of the trump cards to cancel purchase restrictions.
This round of real estate tightening regulation cycle lasted for 5 years, the longest regulation in history. The five rounds of the loose cycle have started in 2021, and the effect is not good because of the epidemic, many of the trump card ultimate moves have not been played out, because they are not exciting.
The author believes that the logic of the property market policy cycle remains unchanged. Real estate is a policy market, and housing prices are rising steadily. Real estate will stabilize growth, stabilize finance, stabilize employment, and stabilize the market. When the economy, market, income and employment decline, the market will be saved. When housing prices, economy and income rise, they will be tightened.
The author calculated that as of the end of 2018, about 90 cities had introduced purchase and loan restrictions, about 60 cities with sales restrictions, about 35 cities with price restrictions, about 15 cities with divorce and house purchase policies, and 8 cities with business restrictions .
As of 2021, 74 cities across the country (Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi , Changzhou , Yangzhou , Xuzhou , Huai'an , Zhenjiang , Taizhou , Nantong , Qidong , Hefei, Lu'an , Wuhu , Wuhan, Xiangyang , Yichang , Xiaogan , Ezhou , Changsha, Nanchang , Ganzhou , Jiujiang , Jinan.
Qingdao, Heze , Binzhou , Weihai , Linyi, Dongying , Liaocheng , Dezhou , Zibo , Shenyang, Dalian, Dandong , Zhengzhou, Kaifeng , Shijiazhuang, Langfang , Baoding , Qinhuangdao, Cangzhou , Tangshan , Zhangjiakou , Chengde , Beijing, Fuzhou, Xiamen , Quanzhou , Ningde . Sanming , Nanning , Beihai .
Guiyang, Taiyuan, Kunming, Xishuangbanna , Hangzhou, Ningbo, Jiaxing , Chongqing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Huizhou , Foshan , Dongguan , Zhongshan , Zhuhai, Harbin, Xi'an, Changchun) issued purchase and loan restrictions.
The author believes that in addition to the cancellation of the policies of purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, loan restrictions, price restrictions, sign-up restrictions, enterprises restrictions, separation restrictions, and decline restrictions, there are more than 10 market rescue policies that have not been played, and the trump card will gradually be played with the changes in the market and the rhythm.
The first trump card for the rescue policy has been played, which means that real estate policies are loose and the intensity is constantly increasing. In the future, it will continue to increase until the real estate market recovers, house prices rise, and market confidence recovers.
The author believes that the time nodes for the real estate market to bottom out, bottom out, recover and recover depends on the degree of policy easing, intensity and scope, and the epidemic will not repeat. The second is the return of 100 market prosperity and confidence. Again, it is the resolution of dangerous real estate companies. Finally, there is the economic reversal.
Optimistically, the real estate market bottomed out and bottomed out in the first quarter of 2023, and recovered and recovered in the second quarter. From a conservative perspective, it bottomed out and hit bottom in the second quarter of 2023, and recovered and recovered in the third and fourth quarters. Therefore, it is very necessary for real estate companies to be mentally prepared.
The author believes that even if the real estate market achieves an L-shaped reversal, real estate companies should not blindly expand their scale and leverage to avoid falling into trouble again, because the three red lines and the centralized system of real estate loans have not been cancelled, the financial and livelihood attributes of real estate still exist.
In the future, housing is not speculated, long-term mechanism, normalized regulation, real estate companies, deleveraging, high turnover and high debt, long-termism of products and services, market structure, urban renewal, and leasing and purchasing are both unchanged.
zero-threshold settlement has arrived, and megacities have completely lifted settlement restrictions, becoming a highlight of the real estate market. On September 14, Zhengzhou became the first megacity city to completely lift settlement restrictions nationwide. This is the first megacity city in the country to completely lift settlement restrictions in 2022.
After the central bank's loan interest rate fell, on September 15, the Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank issued an announcement that the deposit interest rate was reduced, which is a two-way interest rate cut to promote the recovery of consumption. negative interest rate is still not over. Faced with the depreciation of the RMB, buying a house is the first choice.
Under the background of downward pressure on economy, real estate market, and land income, the purchase restrictions in various cities have lost their original significance and have been cancelled as expected. It is expected that first-tier cities will loosen their purchase restrictions in the remaining four months, and second-, third- and fourth-tier cities will cancel the purchase restrictions.
On September 12, the author attended a video conference of real estate experts in a department, and proposed that the country should take action to support the real estate market , stabilize the economy and real estate, avoid industry contraction, affect the economy, fiscal revenue, employment, and affect 57 related industries.
In the crisis of insurance real estate companies, we cannot rely on real estate companies to sell themselves and save themselves. It is difficult to rescue them. We must vigorously adjust the three red lines and the centralized loan system, transfusions to insurance companies, ensure resumption of work and delivery of buildings, and introduce demonstration and national policies.
The biggest difficulty for real estate market, land market, real estate companies to resume work and hand over buildings is the lack of money and confidence, which leads to a continuous decline in investment and sales. It is very difficult to resume work and hand over buildings. It is urgent to introduce a plan to stimulate and promote the recovery of the industry.
The author also put forward real estate policy suggestions. In addition to the relaxation of restrictions on first-tier cities, all second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities have completely canceled purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, sales restrictions, price restrictions, visa restrictions, enterprises restrictions, and divorce restrictions; all houses are exempt from value-added tax, and new and second-hand house transactions are exempt from deed tax and stamp duty.
completely cancels 20% of second-hand housing personal income tax ; all relief private real estate companies can guarantee bond issuance and obtain bank development loans after the meeting; establish special loans for insurance companies, special loans, and real estate funds , with the national, local governments and banks providing support, interest-free or interest subsidies.
lowered the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate; established a national 2 trillion yuan plan to convert commercial housing to resettlement housing, rental housing, and shared property rights housing ; three red lines and the centralized system for real estate loans relaxed; all restrictions on land transfer restrictions in 22 cities were cancelled; the capital ratio of real estate projects decreased by 5%.
Facts have proved that real estate has once again given the important task of supporting the bottom-line economy to stabilize growth, finance, and employment. Real estate is still a pillar industry, a basic industry, a pioneer industry, and a dominant industry. This is an unchanging general trend, and we are optimistic about the development prospects of the real estate industry in the future.
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