On Wednesday (September 28), gold prices rebounded sharply from the lowest level since April 2020 that was earlier hit, and will rise for the second consecutive day. In the early trading of the US market, spot gold broke through $1,650/ounce, setting a new daily high of $1,659.93/ounce, up more than 1.9% during the day. USD index hit a new 20-year high today, hitting a high of 114.78, and now it has fallen back to the 113.1 front-line trading. “The dollar surges.” The stronger dollar puts serious pressure on currencies in many smaller countries, which is very worrying for countries that have experienced the currency crisis over the past few decades.
Today, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell sharply. Over the years, major economies have taken steps to prevent another global financial market crisis, but even a sound system can be overwhelmed when all flee at the same time. Any investment bank that looks troubled or a large hedge fund may be the first clue that a bigger problem is developing. This situation may prompt investors to buy more of the hard assets such as gold and silver. A positive improvement in global risk sentiment – as shown by a strong stock market recovery – should limit the safe-haven demand for gold. Therefore, it is prudent to wait for strong follow-up buying before confirming that gold has formed a near-term bottom.
[Gold trend analysis]
The price of gold did indeed continue to retrace. Obviously, the low closing of the price last week has laid the foundation for this week's bear dominant pattern. We have set the main ideas for gold trading this week at the beginning of the week. Although the price has reached the target point of the shorts for two consecutive trading days, we also followed the trend. The gold price fell to the lowest level of 1614, and it has reached the price position we proposed on Monday, so we often need to be more patient at this time. During the US session today, gold rose rapidly at a low point and broke through two major resistances in a row, with an increase of $46, reaching the highest point of the 1660 mark; in the last few trading days of this week, not only the html January line closing line and weekly closing line, but also the quarterly closing line price, the rebound after the price falls is the point that we deserve attention.
The price of gold is slowly approaching the expected limit at the beginning of the week. The lowest level is around 1610, because considering the possibility of rapid bottoming out and rebounding. The bears looked fierce on Wednesday, but it was actually the final performance, and a new storm appeared in the evening. The next low point rises, and the continuous breakthrough of the high point is a signal. The first position is 1645 and will be easily taken, then 1688 and then 1711; the sign of whether the low oscillation can be ended in the short term is that the price breaks through 1688, and then the subsequent weekly end will be completely out of this wave of low level; so the market is gradual, breaking through the key resistance level, so the next trend is very obvious, that is, long bullish;
Since gold retreated from the 2070 high this year, the monthly line, since the previous closing geopolitical situation has affected the surge and soared, the BOLL upper track of the monthly line is retracted into the channel with long upper shadow line ! Then, against the backdrop of the Fed rate hike , the gold monthly line fell from around the 2000 mark to the current level near the 1610 area, and closed down for six consecutive months. The long-term fundamental negative factors will not be completely lifted for the time being, because there are two interest rate talks in the year-on-year low, but the last rate hike still ended, so before the next rate hike, gold has a chance to bottom out! In the end of the month, in the past few days, around 1614 may belong to a temporary bottom, and the final month ends with a longer upper shadow line .
Gold turns strong and goes long on the 4-hour middle track. The unilateral downward trend of gold has been shorted without a significant reversal. The gold reversal signal is now very strong and has broken the previous downward trend. Another thing to be sure is that today's gold closing price will be above 1646, which is the signal that gold continues to rise. Gold rose strongly and broke the 4-hour middle track, completely breaking the downward trend, and go long gold on the 4-hour middle track tomorrow.After the above analysis, Jiang Fucai came to the following combination, the operational idea of gold in the future market will be very clear. Gold is bullish at low prices, with support below 1645-30-upper resistance 1680-1700;
In terms of operation, for friends who want to buy the bottom of for long-term , the high point of 2070 this year has basically become a foregone conclusion, and 1614 will become the bottom line. Then in terms of operational thinking, Jiang Fucai believes that gold in September remains bullish, and October is also a bullish month. Seize the opportunity and take the silver October;
[Gold operation strategy]
1: The following is recommended to participate in long orders at 1645-50, strictly set a stop loss of 1635. In terms of target, the 1680 area reduces positions and changes to guaranteed stop loss. Some holding orders can be kept to 1700 before making the final deduction.
2: The rebound above 1678 is around short-short, strictly lead to stop loss 1685, the target is 1670 to reduce positions and hold protection losses, and some positions can be retained to 1660 line;
3: If the market unexpectedly falls below 1640, specific strategies will be adjusted according to the actual situation during the session.
Forex trading some questions about mentality
Forex trading is a very common financial management method, so in the process of foreign exchange trading, it is the most important to face greed and fear correctly. Everyone has the idea of becoming a wealthy person in this market, but few people can truly face the market changes in Forex trading. In fact, the most important thing is to do foreign exchange trading well and grasp your own mentality. In the trading process, there are several points that must be overcome for the mentality.
Worrying about gains and losses: This mentality is a common problem for novices. If the market changes slightly, you will be nervous and you will be suspended regardless of whether it is profit or loss. It is obvious that the psychological endurance is too weak. Simply put, you think too much and understand too little. Once you really trade, you are easily affected by this mentality. In the long run, losses always outweigh profits.
Careful: Simply put, it is common to take care of it lightly during the transaction process. The spot market is a high-risk investment and there will definitely be losses. People make mistakes, and horses make mistakes. Although for some veterans, they have skilled skills or have stable profit methods, they sometimes have a relaxed and proud mentality, which will lead to a change in their mentality over time, resulting in greater losses. If you accidentally lose, you should be doing it and keep it nervous and moderate. Only by constantly learning can you make progress.
Impulsive behavior: You should know that there is no regret medicine in the world. Many students often have hindsights, thinking that it would be great if they sold early, and they would stop the loss early, so on. There are also many students who miss the point, enter the point early or late, and they will be irritable and regretful. Remember that what has happened is impossible to recover. The past is the past. Reorganize the situation. When you come again next time, it is impossible to change. Don’t do unnecessary things, affect your mentality and emotions. You must calm your mood in time and don’t let negative emotions affect your next transaction.
This is a common trading psychology in the market. If you have similar ideas, you must look back in time and cannot wait until things happen, and then look back to find the reason. That is to say, when you find it too late, there is no time to make up for it.
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