US dollar index continues to rise, which also leads to the performance of gold being very weak. From the weekly perspective, gold prices were in a continuous decline in the first two weeks, and it is very likely to form a three-game decline this week.
In fact, considering that the increase in the week of September 9 was very small, and the weekly decline had been completed before that, it has basically been in a constant decline in the past seven weeks.
Today, the lowest price of international gold has reached US$1,622.2 per ounce. It is very likely that it will fall below the US$1,600 mark before this weekend. This will be the first time that gold price has returned to this low after rising above US$1,600 in April 2020.
At present, the biggest risk factor in the entire financial market is still the tightening policy of the Federal Reserve . Whether it is commodity or risky assets, the performance of the US dollar index is very poor. The strength of the US dollar index has caused all assets denominated in US dollars to fall one after another.
The United States will also announce the PCE price index this week. For the Fed, this index is more important than cpi and is an important indicator of the Fed's inflation reference.
After hike rate in September, the Federal Reserve has stated many times that in order to control inflation, it will raise interest rates significantly in the future. The point-of-money chart also shows that the Federal Reserve's interest rate may rise to 4.4% in the next year.
So it is very likely that after the PCE price index is released this week, the market's forecast for the Fed's interest rate hike in November and December will further increase, and the US dollar index will rise further, and the price of gold will fall further.
Although the price of international gold has continued to fall sharply, for domestic gold consumers, they may feel a certain disappointment.
Although the international gold price calculated in gold has dropped sharply, the domestic gold price calculated in RMB has not been satisfactory.
Today, the price of gold in China is 385 yuan per gram, which always gives people the feeling that the decline has not been much during this period. Is the price of gold also similar to the price of gasoline? It rises when it rises, but does not fall when it falls?
should be said to behave a bit similar, but the reasons for the formation are completely different.
Domestic gold prices fell slowly, the most important reason is the trend of the RMB exchange rate.
Because during this period, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has fallen sharply. Gold denominated in US dollars is falling, and the RMB is also falling. Therefore, the decline in gold price calculated in RMB in China has been offset by the decline of RMB. It seems that the decline is not so fast and not so large.
may be precisely because of this reason that gold sales are currently not as good as when the gold price was higher some time ago.
Due to the large fluctuations in gold prices since this year, many investors and consumers who like to buy gold feel conflicted and do not know whether they should start.
From the beginning of the year to mid-March, due to the influence of European conflicts and risk aversion, the price of gold quickly rose in a short period of time, and at its highest level even exceeded US$2,000, and the domestic gold price also reached more than RMB 420 per gram.
Then from March to May, the market realized that the Fed's interest rate hike will be faster and faster, and the impact of the conflict incidents gradually faded, so the gold price fell at a high level.
From June to now, it is a stage of gold's accelerated decline. During this period, not only did the US dollar index rise higher and higher, but the yield of US bond is also getting higher and higher, and gold and other commodities fell together.
The current price of gold has been a new low in two and a half years, but once this trend is formed, the price of gold may fall further in the future.
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