Core Views
sector performance in two weeks: in the past two weeks (2022.09.12-2022.09.23), the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 5.81%, the ChiNext Index fell 9.59%, and the Consumer Services ( CITIC ) index fell 3.46%, and the relative return compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 2.35%, ranking 4th among CITIC's 29 sub-industry. Among them, in terms of the molecular sector, the tourism and leisure sector fell 3.41% in the past two weeks, the hotel and catering sector fell 1.08% in the past two weeks, the education sector fell 6.24% in the past two weeks, and the comprehensive service sector fell 4.03% in the past two weeks.
stocks weekly tracking: In terms of individual stocks' rise and fall, the five stocks with the highest stock price increase in the past two weeks are Xiabu Xiabu / Huatian Hotel / Jinling Hotel /galaxy Entertainment/MGM China ; the five stocks with higher weekly average turnover rate are Guilin Tourism /Yumeng China -S/Huatian Hotel/Lijiang Tourism/Xi'an Food ; the 5 stocks with higher transaction volume are Huatian Hotel/Guilin Tourism/Lijiang Tourism/Aobo Holdings/Zhongxin Tourism .
Industry news: (1) Hainan will continue to issue offshore duty-free consumption coupons to boost duty-free consumption. (2) Tongcheng Travel released the "National Day" travel trend report, and the attention to light outdoor projects increased by more than 150%. (3) Customs "service package" supports the recovery of Hainan's offshore duty-free industry after the epidemic. (4) Adjustment of Hong Kong Stock Connect under the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect: Adjustment of China China Free Trade (01880) will take effect from September 19.
A shares social service listed companies important announcements: 1) China China Free Trade: Announcement on the partial exercise of over-allotment, price stabilization actions and the end of the price stabilization period. 2) Haiqi Group : Notice on the progress of reducing the holdings of shares of Hainan Haiqi Transportation Group Co., Ltd.
In terms of the epidemic, the number of new local cases nationwide has declined since mid-September, and Chengdu has also resumed production and living order in an orderly manner since 0:00 on September 19. Although the domestic epidemic situation is still relatively complex, it is marginally improving compared with the beginning of September; in terms of policy, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government of China announced that the isolation measures for arriving in Hong Kong from overseas or Taiwan from September 26 will be changed from "3+4" to "0+3", that is, there will be no compulsory hotel quarantine after entering the country. The " Coming to Hong Kong Easy " and "Return to Hong Kong Easy" quarantine exemption plans for entering Hong Kong in the mainland will also not have daily quota restrictions; in order to promote the reform of " Deregulation, Supervision and Service ", promote the development of border tourism, and strengthen border tourism management, the five departments of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and other departments publicly solicit opinions on the border tourism management measures. The National Day Golden Week is approaching, and the "2022 National Day Big Data Forecast Report" released by Ctrip shows that the overall domestic hotel market performance is slightly deserted, and the expected popularity will recover to 70% of the same period in 2021. The epidemic situation in many places is still repeated and the festival is celebrated locally. We expect the overall recovery of the National Day tourism market to be limited, and the structural will still be dominated by surrounding tourism.
Duty-free: On September 21, Sanya International Duty-free City and Qionghai Boao Duty-free Shop resumed business. At present, all 10 offshore duty-free shops that closed the store have resumed business, and Hainan Duty-free is expected to enter the high-speed recovery period; airport passenger flow is quickly restored month-on-month. According to the Flight Manager APP, 09/18-09/24 Haikou Airport average daily passenger throughput has been restored to 73.56% of the daily throughput in September 21, and 53.53% of the daily throughput in September 21. The average daily passenger throughput of Sanya Airport recovered to 27.62% of the average daily throughput in September 2019, and 19.59% of the average daily throughput in September 2019. In terms of discounts and structure, after the lockdown is lifted, the discount intensity of China Duty Free has gradually returned to normal. In addition to the increase in offline sales, gross profit margin is expected to rebound; New Haigang is about to open Q4, and it may also become a new engine of China Duty Free long-term growth while injecting incremental market into Hainan Duty Free. At present, China Duty Free PE is significantly lower than the historical valuation center. Considering that the stock price is highly sensitive to the epidemic, the rebound speed and strong certainty brought about by the improvement of the epidemic, we once again emphasize the bottom allocation opportunities caused by China Duty Free (601888, increase holdings) , and it is recommended to actively grasp it.
Hotel: According to STR, last week (9/11-9/17), the overall RevPAR of the hotel industry in mainland China recovered to 61% in the same period in 2019, down 9pct from 72% to 9/3-9/10, mainly affected by the resurgence of the epidemic in many places since September. Although the epidemic disturbs the short-term recovery and store opening rhythm, the core logic of the improvement of chain rate and optimization of supply pattern remains fulfilled. We are still optimistic about the concentration of leading shares and the elasticity of post-epidemic recovery. We recommend paying attention to Jinjiang Hotel (600754, buy), Huazhu Group -S (01179, not rated) and , which is relatively lower in valuation and has greater elasticity after adjustment of Beijing's epidemic prevention control measures.
Tourism: Many places optimize epidemic prevention and isolation policies from the end of June and the peak summer season, it is expected that the Q3 performance of the sector companies will improve significantly. From a fundamental perspective, it is recommended to pay attention to China Youth Travel (600138, buy), Tianmuhu (603136, increase holdings), Songcheng Performing Arts (300144, buy) . The stock prices of other small scenic spots are more sensitive to market sentiment and liquidity, and subsequent performance may be differentiated.
Catering: Travel is restored in an orderly manner, and layout is revived elastically. According to the National Bureau of State Council, the revenue of social retail and catering in August was 374.8 billion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year. Against the background of the orderly recovery of travel month-on-month and low base in August last year, it achieved its first year-on-year positive growth since March. The same store recovery of all catering brands in August was close to the same period, and benefited from the low base background and the recovery of dining. Although the local epidemic has recurred and the recovery of passenger flow is still fluctuating, the darkest moment has passed, and profits in the second half of the year are expected to improve significantly month-on-month, and the turning point of performance is about to come. We recommend paying attention to the post-epidemic recovery opportunities of the catering sector, and selecting targets from the perspective of business stability and store opening growth. We recommend paying attention to Helens (09869, buy), Jiu Mao Jiu (09922, not rated).
Risk warning
Systemic risks, sudden factors, individual stock mergers and acquisitions and restructuring fail to meet expectations, etc. @Xiaofeng Looks
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