According to recent reports from American media, international strategic research scholar Robert Legwald published an article "Two Cold Wars in the New Bipolar World", pointing out that since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis eight years ago, the United States and Russia have been in a new Cold War state. Similar to the original Cold War, both countries believe that the other side bears full responsibility for the collapse of relations. Both sides believe that the root cause of the conflict is not the conflict of interest, but the other party's "evil" purpose.
Therefore, both countries believe that the situation will only change if the nature of the other party's leadership changes fundamentally or at least fundamentally repositions its foreign policy. The US-Russia relations have undergone qualitative changes over the past 10 years and have had major consequences. First, after the end of the Soviet Union, neither the United States nor Russia responded completely—perhaps they didn’t even realize the greater stake in the relationship between the two countries, but as they fell into a new Cold War, they even lost the opportunity to respond.
Because they fail to lead in establishing a mechanism to keep a new multipolar nuclear world stable, they have now lost the will and ability to deal with their increasingly complex nuclear relations, which has left the entire world covered in the clouds of nuclear war . In the new US-Russian Cold War, "integrated and peaceful Europe" became a ridiculous fantasy, as both sides removed the guardrails and strengthened their military forces along the new front of Central Europe, which stretched from the Arctic to Black Sea , much longer than the front of the old Cold War.
Secondly, the same traits as the initial Cold War have left Moscow and Washington in the current Ukrainian disaster. Both sides no longer try to understand the concerns that drive each other's behavior. Unlike the 2003 after the Iraq War , both sides no longer believe that in critical situations such as the Ukrainian crisis, they should explore where they can reconcile their basic interests and where they cannot be reconciled. This "snipe-clut-clut-fight" situation usually brings benefits to another great power, which obviously refers to China, but the United States launched a very similar Cold War against China through " Indo-Pacific Strategy ", which prompted China and Russia to join forces.
If there is a way to avoid the current crisis, it is important to understand why their new Cold War thinking covers these methods and how it covers them. Both Russia and the West will have two options. The natural tendency of both sides is to reconfigure their strengthened military forces and push more troops toward the line of contact. Another option is to focus on restoring and strengthening the military guardrails that the United States and Russia have removed after 2014: re-engineering the modernized version of the Treaty of Conventional Forces of Europe to define the number of troops deployed at the forefront and various weapon types, and to restore the Open Sky Treaty and the Vienna Document. Text/PY
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-