Direct news: What do you think about the big explosion at the Saki Air Force Base in Russia located in Crimea ?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: For this matter, the phenomenon of each person speaking his own words first appeared between Russia, Ukraine and Western countries. Ukraine and the West believe that the big explosion caused the destruction of nine Russian military aircraft, and that day also became the day when Russia lost the most military aircraft since World War II . Although Russia did not deny the outbreak, it not only denied that the air base was attacked, but also denied that some military aircraft were damaged.
Secondly, in terms of the cause of the big explosion, the Russian side insisted that it was because someone violated fire safety regulations and caused the explosion. The United States and the West believe that in such a tight air base, it is unlikely that an explosion will be caused by fire protection issues, and it is even less likely that three major explosions will occur in three different locations within the same period of time. However, the cause of the explosion, both Ukraine and the United States explained through mysterious "anonymous officials" that this was not done by Ukraine using the "Haimas" multi-rocket launcher system provided by the United States, nor by Ukrainian homemade long-range missile , but by Ukrainian special operations forces infiltrated the air base and then used small drones to attack the base's fuel compartment and aircraft parked on the ground.
And in my opinion, the truth still needs further verification. It is not ruled out that the US side has come forward to deny that it was the " Himas " to clear its responsibility and avoid Russia from targeting the target of revenge at the United States. It is not ruled out that Ukraine said this to avoid Russia's double revenge.
and let Ukrainian special operations forces and drones take this credit, which can not only avoid overstimulating Russia, but also give Russia a warning to tell Russia that Ukrainian special operations forces are very powerful, and not only can fight behind enemy lines on Ukrainian land , but also may also carry out the same actions in Russia in the future to give Russia a huge psychological deterrence.
Direct news: Then the attack occurred in Crimea. What does it mean for both Russia and Ukraine?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think that from the perspective of combat and tacticality, since Crimea is not only relatively far from the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield and is relatively safe, but also Crimea is a material transit station for the Russian army to attack Ukraine and the rear of instigating an attack. The gains and losses of this place will obviously affect the situation on Khelson and the entire battlefield in eastern Ukraine, and even the gains and losses of these places.
, especially many Russian fighter and helicopters that launched air strikes against Ukraine, took off from Sakhi Air Base. Therefore, the explosion at Sakhi Air Base will affect the combat effectiveness of Russia's air force to a certain extent in a short period of time.
From a strategic perspective, for Russia, Crimea's status is completely different from other Ukraine's territory and even the eastern Ukraine region. Russia has already taken Crimea into Xiangzhong and regarded it as its "sacred and inviolable territory." This means that Ukraine's attack on Crimea is equivalent to attacking Russia's mainland, and the Russian-Ukrainian war is very likely to escalate further. Because for Putin and Russia, if you can't take over the entire Ukraine or even the eastern Ukraine, it doesn't mean that the sky has collapsed, but if you lose Crimea, you will be completely unable to explain it to the country.
I think this is why Russia will recognize that Crimea belongs to Russia in every Russian-Ukrainian negotiation, which is one of the important bottom lines of the negotiation.On the other hand, Ukraine's attack on the Crimeaki Air Base was equivalent to telling Russia and Putin with practical actions that Crimea has nothing to talk about and must be taken back.
From this we can see that it is obviously too early to talk about ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. The current top priority is to control the war between Russia and Ukraine and not develop in a direction of losing control.
Author丨Liu Heping, Shenzhen TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan" special commentator
Editor丨Zhang Sinan, direct news editor, Shenzhen TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan" special commentator
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