Author | Mao Ge
Source | Big Cat Finance
In recent months, the big white horses in the stock market have suffered a massacre. used to treat medicine and liquor that they were disobedient, and other white horses followed the decline. Within half a year, many stocks were cut in half. Medical, airport, home appliances, soy sauce, express delivery, etc., even Moutai Benmao, failed to escape the fate of a big drop.
Look at the top 30 A-share total market value "evaporated" and you will know how powerful the big white horses are:
The top 30 big white horses have fallen by 8 trillion yuan in the past few months, with an average drop of 35.69%. The worst-sinking Zhonggong Education , with a maximum drop of 74.31%, which is cheaper than a 30 discount. Is the average decline of
35.69% a lot? This is completely incomparable to the big white horses in Hong Kong and US stocks.
first look at Hong Kong stocks. Tencent, Alibaba and Meituan alone evaporated more than 8 trillion yuan. Duo Yongping quickly bought the bottom, and was so happy that he laughed:
The 30 Chinese mainland companies that fell the worst among Hong Kong stocks, including Internet giants, banks, etc. market value has evaporated 22 trillion Hong Kong dollars in recent months, and the contract is 18.3 trillion yuan , with an average drop of more than 51%, which can be called a collective halving.
Can Chinese stocks be spared?
is not a surprise, and it is normal for education companies to fall by more than 90%. 30 companies with the most severe decline have lost 2 trillion US dollars, with a contract of 13 trillion RMB , with an average decline of 60%, and a 40% discount on the whole market.
giants are all spared.
, these big white horses, , fell from their highs this year to nearly 40 trillion market value, almost catching up with GDP for the 5-month period.
This wave of decline this year has buried many people. Not only retail investors, but also many institutions. Most public and private equity funds have ushered in collective retracement this year.
Zhang Kun , Liu Yanchun, Ge Lan, Qu Yang, and Wang Zonghe, who were praised for their Chinese New Year, basically re-allocated consumption, medicine, and the Internet, and this wave was all a failure.
For example, Zhang Kun's fund, the first-tier equity-oriented fund E Fund blue chip selected, among the top ten heavily held stocks, the first-hand consumer and Internet assets such as Tencent, Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao , Yanghe , and Meituan, have failed on a large scale.
60 days increase, only one stock was red, the rest were all green, most of which fell by twenty or thirty points.
For example, Liu Yanchun's funds are mostly liquor and medicine.
The Invesco Great Wall's emerging growth scale is 58.2 billion, and the top ten heavy holdings of Moutai, Wuliangye, Laojiao, Mindray , WuXi AppTec, etc. plummeted 5.42% on August 20. Jiying, managed by Liu Yanchun, has grown for two years, and its maximum drawdown has reached about 40%.
Look at the recent increase, it is green. Many of the top funds such as
are funds that were just expanded last year, and most of them entered the market at high levels. With such a large drawdown, investors suffered heavy losses.
A few days ago, a fund company in Shenzhen was conducting live broadcasts, and the female anchor was scolded and cried by netizens.
owes too much, and everyone has a bad mentality.
Then why have these big white horses fallen so fiercely recently?
Some people attribute the reason to constant negative news, too.
For example, the pharmaceutical sector has encountered a big negative that has not been seen in many years - centralized procurement.
The soul bargaining model of this centralized procurement has caused all pharmaceutical companies to panic. Whether it is insulin , contrast agent, heart stent or orthopedic joints, they have to bid, and those with lower prices will get it. Although the company that successfully bid for
won a large order, its profit margin was extremely low.
For example, rivaroxaban (10mg) of Qilu Pharmaceutical has dropped by 98%, and Docetaxel has also dropped by 94%. To this point, the people have benefited, but it is inevitable that the profits of these companies will fall sharply.
Some drug injections are as low as 30 cents per injection and pills are as low as 2 cents per pill:
You said it would be better if I didn’t participate in the centralized procurement?
may be even worse. Over-the-counter drugs can still be sold in pharmacies. Prescription drugs, injections, medical devices and other types are left in the hospital. How to sell them? Who dares to buy it? It has been so long since the procurement of drugs in
, the performance of the entire pharmaceutical sector has been significantly impacted, from the decline in net profit growth to the decline in net profit, and some companies even face losses.
For example, the largest "Medicago" Hengrui Medicine , after the centralized procurement, the performance growth rate declined for the first time in 10 years. The logic of high growth was broken, and the stock price has been halved from its high point to now:
Another example of the liquor sector is that multiple news has gradually stimulated, and the stock price has been trembling step by step.
First, the consumption tax adjustment, and then relevant departments interviewed some people in charge of the liquor industry, with the content on preventing the price increase of liquor during the Spring Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival. There are even relevant departments that need to rectify the investment fever of Maotai Town , and investigate the primary market 's industry capital blindly investing in the liquor industry.
negative news came out one after another, hitting the entire liquor sector.
The strongest leader Moutai, CITIC Securities once shouted a high expectation of 3,000 yuan:
Indeed, Moutai's stock price has also risen to 2,603 yuan, and then it began to fall continuously. Recently, it fell to 1,525 yuan, with a 60% discount.
Pharmaceuticals and liquor are not good, but Internet companies that have been sought after all the way have encountered antitrust problems.
actually had signs. In November last year, the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited opinions on the Anti-Monopoly Guide. From this point in time, Internet giants with long-term stock prices have turned downward and embarked on a downward trend.
As the legislation advances, it also begins to attack giants. Any behavior of using their own scale advantages to swallow others or grab the market is not allowed.
Alibaba 's two choices and Meituan's two choices were investigated.
There are 22 mergers and acquisitions involving Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan and all were punished:
● For example, Alibaba Network acquires Tianxianpai, acquires Newest Lane, acquires Guangzhou Evergrande Football and other equity cases, Alibaba Venture Capital acquires Wugang E-commerce equity cases;
● Tencent acquires 58 equity case, Tencent acquires Xiaohongshu equity case, Tencent acquires Sogou equity case, Tencent acquires Cheetah Mobile equity case, and Tencent acquires Mogujie equity case;
● Beijing Sankuai (actually Meituan) acquires Aoqiwei equity case, etc.
● is not just an acquisition, but the merger of Huya Douyu was also reviewed and then aborted.
● Didi has not been spared. The case of establishing joint ventures with its subsidiary companies, including FAW Group , Huaxia Travel, Telaikan , Tibet Aotong (Zhejiang Dishi and Hangzhou Dishi), BAIC New Energy, Space-Time Electric Vehicles, Hainan Transportation Control, South Grid Electric, Hainan Power Grid , etc., were all investigated.
Mergames, acquisitions, and joint ventures are only fines, and some are simply stopped. In this context, it would be strange if the stock price can have high growth. Not to mention
real estate, with continuous regulation and three red lines pressing the top. In the past few years, Vanke shouted the slogan of "living", and many companies still use jokes, but now they have realized the difficulties of these three words.
real estate is not good, and the sales of home appliances are gradually weak. The profits of companies such as Gree, Midea , Haier began to decline. Ms. Dong all started live broadcasting in person, but the effect was not satisfactory.
(Source: Listed Company Announcement)
The capital market will have a great response to the decline in profit growth rate, let alone profit decline, funds run faster than rabbits.
Leaders in various sub-sectors have also been slaughtered.
For example, the tax-free concept of the early hottest was punctured, and funds left one after another. At that time, China Duty Free, which had the most powerful rise, fell from 402 yuan to over 200 yuan, which was almost halfway.
Another example is the airport sector. It finally recovered a little in the second half of last year. This year, facing the back and forth of the epidemic, it continued to fall again. , which once had a market value of 100 billion yuan, Shanghai Airport also fell by almost half.
Of course, if is in a miserable way, no one can compare to the education and training industry.
For example, Good Future fell from 90 to 5.6. The company that once had a market value of nearly 400 billion yuan is now less than a fraction of it. New Oriental and Gaotu are basically the same. Although they have not delisted directly, the stock price is basically impossible to read.
Of course, negative policies are just superficial situations.
Even if there is no negative news, these white horses have already had a high increase in the previous period. Most funds have a need to make profits, and northbound funds have also retreated one after another.
Let’s talk about Moutai. In February 2020, when the epidemic started, the stock price was more than 950 yuan. After a year, when Zhang Kun became a god in February 2021, the stock price rose to more than 2,600 yuan. Moutai’s performance could not keep up with this growth rate. There were a lot of funds to settle profits, so the pressure for pullback was naturally very high. This situation is very common, so what are many big white horses doing now?
digestion valuation. It is abnormal if does not callback.
In this case, it is normal to encounter a very negative reaction. Some analysts said:
"Whether we evaluate the IVD centralized procurement policy or the liquor symposium, in fact, the policy has a limited impact on the short- and medium-term profits of industries and enterprises. More because we feel that the policy orientation of the industry and the market is unclear and worried about the medium- and long-term prospects of high-profit enterprises. Therefore, the emotions are extremely vented and the market reacts violently."
manipulates all this, in fact, the general economic trend is not optimistic and cannot support this kind of prosperity.
Just as Ren Zeping said - we may be in the economic cycle. In the process of stagflation from to recession:
This problem has the problem If you are deeper, you will basically return to the general logic of "investment is betting on national fortune". If you have confidence, then heal the wound and eat noodles with peace of mind. From the perspective of the big cycle, some white horse stocks will come back, but some big white horses are basically unable to turn things around . For example, the education industry that has been strictly investigated recently, the business has been strictly investigated and the space has been squeezed. It is difficult to return to that era of omnipotence.
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