[Text/Observer Network Liu Qian]
On January 18th local time, the Indonesian parliament passed a bill to determine that the country's capital will move from Jakarta to East Kalimantan Province of Borneo. On January 17, the Indonesian National Development Planning Minister announced that the new capital has been named "Nusantara".
So far, Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Joko Widodo) has made new progress since 2019 after being paused for more than two years.
Schematic diagram of Indonesia's migration capital, mapped/Observer.com Li Yifan
In late April 2019, the Indonesian general election came to an end. Indonesian President Joko , who was basically re-elected, held a high-level meeting of some governments and formally decided to move the capital to Jia Island .
On August 26 of the same year, Joko Widodo announced that the new capital was located between Sanmalinda, the capital of East Kalimantan Province and the port city of Balibaban. Joko also gave a more detailed construction plan. He said that the Indonesian government has prepared 180,000 hectares of land for the construction of the new capital, and the entire capital relocation plan is expected to cost about US$32 billion (about RMB 203.3 billion).
In fact, since the founding of President Sukarno , successive leaders have always had the idea of moving the capital, and it was not until President Jokovic that he truly put it into practice.
The main reasons for the "relocation of capital" given by Indonesian officials are two main reasons. First, the current capital Jakarta is facing a serious "urban crisis". Problems such as traffic congestion, urban pollution, and ground sinking are becoming increasingly serious. Floods, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and other natural disasters have also cast a shadow on urban development.
Local time on April 3, 2021, Jakarta, Indonesia, local seawall. The ground in Jakarta is sinking. The second is to eliminate the problem of development imbalance between Java Island and other parts of the country. Java Island is the location of the three major Indonesian cities, Jakarta, Surabaya and Banlong . Its area accounts for only 6.6% of the country, but its population accounts for about 55% of the country, and GDP accounts for 58.98% of the country. The central and eastern Indonesia islands, including Kalimantan , account for more than 60% of the area and their GDP contribution rate is only 17%.
In this regard, Xu Liping, a researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed that moving Indonesia's capital does not mean "give up" Jakarta, and the status of Jakarta's economic center will not change. "Moving the capital" is actually a "burden reduction" for Jakarta, which is conducive to its healthy development.
Xu Liping believes that the standards for the construction of Indonesia's new capital are very high, with rich early demonstrations and advanced design concepts. If Indonesian leaders can still advance construction matters in an orderly manner after Jokovic leaves office, then we may be able to witness Indonesia's rise as a middle-class power.
"Serious" urban crisis: traffic congestion, ground sinking...
Indonesian contemporary novelist Seno Gumira Ajidarma once joked: "On average, Jakartans spend 10 years on traffic." This aspect can reflect how bad the traffic conditions in Jakarta are.
The British " Guardian " said that it usually takes two hours, sometimes even three hours, to drive 40 kilometers from Jakarta's largest satellite city, Bogor . Satellite navigation data shows that Jakarta was ranked as the world's worst transportation city in a 2018 indicator. The indicator found that the average number of starts and parking times per year on Jakarta drivers was more than 33,000.
Indonesia's Java Post also said that in 2018, Jakarta ranked seventh in the world in congestion.
On May 7, 2021, local time, in Jakarta, Indonesia, the expressway was crowded with vehicles during peak hours. Pictured from Visual China
Jakarta's permanent population exceeds 10 million, and with surrounding satellite cities, the Jakarta metropolitan area has a residential population of more than 30 million. However, the first metropolitan area, which is so dense, was not opened until March 2019.
Former Indonesian National Development Plan Minister Banbang Brozonegoro once pointed out that traffic congestion in Jakarta causes an average of 100 trillion Indonesian rupiah (about 44.2 billion yuan) of economic losses per year.
The dense population and poor transportation also make Jakarta face serious urban pollution.
According to the data of the air quality detection platform AirVisual, Jakarta ranked first among the most polluted cities in the world at least six times in June 2019. According to a research report released by Greenpeace and AirVisual in March of the same year, Jakarta was rated as the city with the worst air pollution in Southeast Asia in 2018.
These sources of air pollution include, in addition to the serious automobile exhaust emissions in Jakarta, open-pit waste incineration plants, coal-fired power plants, and various legal or illegal smelting plants.
In addition, there is water pollution. The Java Post once pointed out that only 4% of Jakarta's wastewater is treated, and the 13 rivers flowing through Jakarta are often filled with garbage, and the groundwater that supplies cities is also polluted.
About 60% of Jakarta's residents cannot directly enjoy fresh water supply, so they can only pump groundwater themselves. Excessive extraction of groundwater has led to the hollowing of the groundwater system, causing serious seawater backflow in coastal areas and ground collapse.
This also involves Jakarta's more serious crisis - sinking on the ground.
Local time on April 3, 2021, Jakarta, Indonesia, local seawall. The ground in Jakarta is sinking. Picture from People's Vision
The entire city of Jakarta is located on a swamp on the coast. In recent years, northern Jakarta has been sinking at an astonishing rate due to climate change-induced sea level rise in and foundation collapse caused by groundwater extraction.
The BBC previously reported that about half of Jakarta is currently below sea level. Between 2008 and 2018, the northern part of Jakarta had sunk by about 2.5 meters, and some areas will still sink at a rate of 25 cm per year.
Heri Andreas of Bandung Polytechnic Institute in Indonesia has long studied the settlement situation in Jakarta. He told the BBC: "If we follow our model, by 2050, 95% of northern Jakarta will sink into the water."
And related reports from domestic and foreign media such as Xinhua , The Guardian, South China Morning Post and other domestic and foreign media also emphasized that Jakarta is currently facing severe ground sinking problems and gave more pessimistic predictions.
"natural disasters" that cannot be prevented
Traffic congestion and ground sinking are still visible, while some so-called "natural disasters" are unpreventable.
Only one week ago, on January 14 local time, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake occurred in the waters near , Wandan Province, near Jakarta, and the houses of local residents were seriously damaged. The tremor was strong in Jakarta, and many people hurried out to take refuge. Then on January 17, another magnitude 5.0 earthquake occurred in the waters south of Java.
Earthquake activity in Java Island, Indonesia is frequent. According to statistics, since December 2017, a total of 6 strong earthquakes of , Liszc 36.0 or above have occurred in Java.
00 Local time on January 14, 2022, in Jakarta, Indonesia, people ran to outdoors to avoid shock. The picture is from Visual China
Volcano groups on Java Island, Indonesia. The picture is from the Guardian
The worst earthquake since the new century was on May 27, 2006. The magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred near Yogyakarta City in central Java in the early morning of the same day. According to official data released by the Indonesian Ministry of Social Affairs on the 30th, as of that night, the earthquake caused at least 5,732 deaths, 20,000 injured, and more than 200,000 residents were homeless.
and volcanoes. There are nearly 100 large and large volcanoes on the Java Island in Jakarta, including as many as 45 active volcanoes in and . Frequent eruptions also pose a significant threat to the area.
In December 2018, Krakato volcano , which is only more than 100 kilometers away from Jakarta, suddenly erupted, causing more than a thousand casualties. In 2010, the most active Merapi volcano erupted in the middle of Java, killing more than 350 people and displaced 400,000 people.
A recent volcanic activity in Java occurred more than a month ago. At that time, the Semeru Volcano, located in East Java Province, erupted violently in heavy rain on the afternoon of December 4, forming ash rain covering more than 10 nearby villages.Officials from Indonesia's National Disaster Resistance Agency (BNPB) said at a press conference on the 5th that the volcanic eruption killed 14 people, injured 56 people, and most of them were burned. About 1,300 people have been evacuated, and 9 are still missing.
In addition, Jakarta is also facing "attack" from floods. According to Reuters , around January 1, 2020, Jakarta suffered the worst rainfall on record, causing floods, killing more than 60 people and displaced about 175,000 people.
Only one month later, Jakarta was flooded again due to heavy rainstorms on February 25, and most of the city was paralyzed, affecting more than 200 blocks. According to reports, Jakarta is easily affected by flooding caused by rain due to its low altitude, sinking foundations and not easy to absorb rainwater on concrete floors.
January 1, 2020, floods flooded in the suburbs of Jakarta. Photo from Twitter
Therefore, it can be said that an important reason why the Indonesian government is determined to move the capital is that the city of Jakarta itself faces various worrying problems. But it is worth noting that this is not the only reason.
In fact, Xu Liping pointed out that many scholars and news media have made pessimistic predictions about Jakarta are just predictions. "The most important effect of many predictions is to prevent problems before they happen."
For example, that Indonesian scholar believes that northern Jakarta will sink underwater by 2050. Xu Liping believes that this is a "supervision" to the Indonesian authorities. As long as the Indonesian government takes measures such as building dams and restricting the use of groundwater every year in the future, the so-called "sinking of the north" will not become a reality.
This also leads to the second important reason why the Indonesian government moved its capital.
Considerations for balancing the national economy
Indonesian government has realistic considerations for moving the capital to East Kalimantan.
As early as August 2019, Indonesian President Joko Widodo clearly mentioned in his State of the Union address that "(relocate the capital) is to achieve balance and equality in economic development." The problem Jokovic is trying to solve is the unbalanced development of Java, where Jakarta is located, with other regions of the country.
According to data from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as of December 2020, Indonesia's population reached 271 million, with hundreds of ethnic groups, more than 200 languages, and as many as 17,000 islands. However, for a long time, the country's political and economic development and the national identification have been dominated by Javanese . Indonesia's founding President Sukarno and current President Joko Widodo both come from Java, which also concentrates most of the country's wealth.
On April 7, 2021, local time, Indonesian President Joko Widodo was interviewed. Picture from Visual China
Indonesia's three major cities, Jakarta, Surabaya and Bandung, are all located on Java Island. The land area of Java Island only accounts for 6.6% of the country, while the population exceeds 150 million, accounting for about 55% of the country's population, and its GDP contribution rate reaches 58.98% of the country.
Compared with that, the GDP contribution rate of central and eastern islands (including Kalimantan in the central region and Sulawesi in the eastern region , Malugu, Papua, etc.) that account for more than 60% of Indonesia's area. Regional economic development is very unbalanced.
It is worth noting that according to the capital relocation plan announced by the Indonesian government, only 19% of the funds required for approximately US$32 billion come from the government budget, and the remaining funds will come from private direct investment, state-owned enterprises or public-private cooperation.
Xu Liping believes that Jokovic's move also has profound meaning. He actually tried to use the capital to attract foreign investment in areas outside Java.
As early as the 2019 election campaign, Joko Widodo promised to promote economic development outside Java. At that time, he proposed to continue to attract foreign investment, hoping to attract at least US$60 billion (about RMB 380.6 billion) in direct investment from wealthy Asian countries in the next five years.
However, since it is clearly stated that "relocating the capital" requires economic rebalancing, is it necessary to weaken Jakarta's status or even "give up" Jakarta?
Xu Liping believes that Indonesia has not "give up" Jakarta. Jakarta is still the largest city in Indonesia and the largest economic center in Indonesia. Just as Shanghai is China's economic center, its status will not change due to the capital migration.Jakarta and Bandung have now gathered to form an economic belt of 30 to 40 million people. There are many manufacturing factories and industrial parks in the region, including some Chinese-invested enterprises.
However, as Jokowi said, Jakarta is a center of politics, business, finance, trade and services, as well as Indonesia's largest airport and seaport, the burden is too heavy.
Therefore, Xu Liping believes that "moving the capital" is a "burden reduction" for Jakarta, "it is conducive to Jakarta's urban construction and can help it achieve healthy development."
How successful or failure should Indonesia move its capital?
In various discussions about Indonesia's capital migration, there are also voices questioning whether the capital migration will be successful. After all, since Indonesia's founding President Sukarno, most of the successive Indonesian leaders have expressed their intention to "mov the capital", but they were ultimately failed to realize it for various reasons.
It is reported that government investment accounts for only 19% of the Indonesian government's plan to relocate capital, and about 80% of the remaining funds may be difficult to raise. "The huge funding gap and high government debt" put a big question on the efficiency of Indonesia's relocating capital.
In this regard, Xu Liping said that the possibility of "it is difficult to raise funds" is not very high. Because the engineering construction of the new capital is a government project after all, it is profitable and guaranteed, and it means business opportunities for some companies.
"In addition, as far as I know, the Indonesian government has a certain threshold when choosing foreign investment, and the threshold is not low. It does not mean that all investments are needed, but that these foreign investments are evaluated and accepted selectively."
Xu Liping said: "So, I think the capital sector will not become a major obstacle for Indonesia."
So what is the real obstacle to Indonesia's migration of capital? Xu Liping believes that the main obstacle is that the construction of the new capital of Indonesia is relatively time-consuming. "If there was no epidemic, it should have started construction two years ago."
Local time on January 18, 2022, computer generated images of the new future capital of Indonesia. Picture from Visual China
"Jokko is now treating the capital as an important legacy during his term, so he requires relocation before he leaves office in 2024." Xu Liping said, "This means that after Jokoko leaves office, the inauguration ceremony of the new president is likely to be held in the new capital in 2024. This is a very important symbol."
"He has only been more than two years. In such a short time, I think it is still a question whether the important infrastructure of the new capital can be completed. This is a considerable challenge."
Xu Liping said that the construction standards of Indonesia's new capital are quite high. The early demonstrations are rich and borrowed from the construction experience of many capitals in Australia's Canberra , Brazil Brasilia and other capitals. Its concept is also relatively advanced, trying to establish a green, environmentally friendly, sustainable and livable urban environment.
According to Hendricus Andy Simarmata, president of the Indonesian Urban Planning Association (IAP), the Indonesian government has always emphasized the need to build a new capital into a "green city", from new buildings to new water supply systems, new roads, etc.
"Indonesia's migration is a gradual process, and it is impossible to complete it all during Jokovic administration." Xu Liping said, "I think the key is that the leaders behind can continue to advance."
"If everything goes well, we may be able to witness Indonesia appear in front of the world with a new look and rise as a medium-sized power."
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