Let’s be cute today. Dear guys, sit in a row and listen carefully to my important notice!
Cough cough
Good news is here!
PC price increase is expected!
This is not nonsense! Next, I will analyze it carefully for you.
Last night, Luxi Chemical issued an announcement for the listed company for production device maintenance, and parking maintenance for some production devices (including devices in new chemical materials) . The maintenance and parking time is expected to be about 30 days.
Seeing the news of Shandong Chemical maintenance, the editor quickly integrated the recent maintenance trends of major chemical companies at home and abroad, and found that since early August, the positive trend of PC supply has been strengthened. Therefore, the editor of expects that the PC market will rebound slightly in the middle and late quarters.
The recent supply side is as follows:
01
Domestic and foreign production equipment maintenance is relatively concentrated, and manufacturers supply less supplies.
In mid-August, the 0,000 Huache 70,000 tons/year PC device will usher in a January-long maintenance; in September, 4 PC devices that have 7.2 million tons/year PC devices will also enter the parking maintenance period. In addition, on the evening of August 7, Luxi Chemical issued an announcement to park and repair some production devices (including devices in new chemical materials). The maintenance and opening and parking time is expected to be about 30 days. The Luxi PC production device itself has been unstable for more than 2 months, so the manufacturer's inventory level is extremely low. From August to September, the production capacity of PC devices involved in maintenance was 570,000 tons/year, and the maintenance loss is expected to be about 36,000 tons. Therefore, the supply of domestic PC manufacturers will significantly reduce in the third quarter.
02
imports are expected to rise generally in the foreign market in August, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar broke 7, and the import cost increased significantly.
html In August, the foreign market prices of major domestic imported PC brands increased by US$50-100 per ton compared with the previous month. In addition, internal and external factors at the beginning of the month caused a sharp drop in the RMB exchange rate, and merchants' import costs increased significantly. Foreign manufacturers have obvious intention to control goods in August, and the quotations are firm and there are limited negotiations, while merchants are worried that the risk of inverting internal and external markets is relatively high, so they are mainly cautious in taking over small orders. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic market import volume will also be relatively low from August to September, and the spot market price will be relatively strong.03
new device is slow to put into production, with limited short-term impact.
In the first half of 2019, only Sichuan Zhonglan GuoPlastic's 100,000 tons/year PC device was added in China. Shandong Xi Chemical announced a new capacity expansion of 100,000 tons/year. The actual new PC capacity in China totaled 200,000 tons/year; in the second half of the year, Hubei Sanning Chemical's 70,000 tons/year PC device may be put into production in the middle and late third quarter, and Henan Shengtong Juyuan's 130,000 tons/year PC device may be postponed to the fourth quarter or even next year. Therefore, the impact of the two on the domestic PC market will also appear after the fourth quarter.
In the first half of 2019, the domestic PC market experienced a sluggish market that exceeded expectations, and prices continued to bottom out, setting a record low for many years.
At the beginning of the second half of the year, the market spent July in confusion, hovering and repetition. Yesterday we also said that 7 PC rose by 1,050 yuan/ton . Now, in general, the supply side of the domestic PC market in the middle and late third quarter is concentrated, and considering that the market has experienced a long period of low-level narrow-range consolidation, many downstream manufacturers expect that the current procurement risks are extremely low, so the market has certain upward action; however, due to the current internal and external factors, the inventory of terminal products is slowly digested , and the situation of new orders of downstream manufacturers is not good, and the market fluctuations cannot effectively mobilize their enthusiasm for centralized procurement, so the demand side will seriously limit the market growth rate at this stage.
Therefore, the Shenshuozi expects that the domestic PC market will rise significantly in the middle and late third quarter.It is recommended that all the information friends search on me, always pay attention to the recent price trends of PCs, and understand the latest plastic price market as soon as possible. The business opportunities are for those who are prepared~
There must be many information friends muttering in their hearts: no matter how you analyze and predict the rise, if you have the ability, you will really let the PC rise!
You can’t say that some of the PC market’s supply has been tight recently, and some of the local brands are rising slightly. quickly check out the latest market analysis and short-term future market forecasts for PC PA66 PMMA PET and other engineering materials!
PC
Currently, the prices of some supply sources in the domestic PC market are relatively tight, and the South China market has risen, with a daily increase of 50-150 yuan/ton.
influencing factors
PC device dynamic
PC upstream dynamic
yesterday the domestic bisphenol A market center of gravity continued to decline, there was no favorable support on the market, raw material phenol was weak and stalemate, downstream terminal buying was difficult to follow up, is expected to run weakly today.
future market forecast
The current domestic PC market is still in conflict, the upstream bisphenol A market continues to decline, and the support for the cost side is limited. Some brands on the market are tight, merchants are cautious in trading, and they are relatively cautious in actual order trading.
is expected to be stable and small in the near future. It is recommended to pay more attention to the external news and further changes in the trading mentality of the industry.
PA66
The current domestic PA66 market is weak and stable, with some brands falling slightly by 100 yuan/ton.
influencing factors
PA66 device dynamic
PA66 upstream dynamic
PA66 upstream dynamic
Yesterday, the domestic adipic acid market was consolidated and operated. Merchants' willingness to ship, downstream inquiries were cautious, some negotiations were lowered, and profit space was limited. is expected to be consolidated today's adipic acid market or range.
future market forecast
The current domestic PA66 market trend is temporarily stable, and the contradiction between supply and demand on the market still exists. Downstream purchasing mentality is cautious and replenishing goods on demand. Merchants’ shipment resistance remains unabated and trading volume is relatively small.
is expected to be stalemate in the short term PA66 market.
PA6
The current PA6 market trading atmosphere is average, and the market situation is not much changed.
influencing factors
PA6 device dynamic
PA6 upstream dynamic
Yesterday, the domestic caprolactam market was weak and stable, the upstream pure benzene fluctuated weakly, the downstream takeover was relatively stable, the supply of goods was still acceptable, the overall trading atmosphere was slightly stalemate, and is expected to consolidate today's caprolactam market.
future market forecast
Currently, the upstream caprolactam consolidation of the domestic PA6 market is limited in support of the cost side, the downstream terminal order follow-up speed is slow, the on-site transaction atmosphere is flat, and the center of gravity of the negotiations is relatively low.
is expected to be weak in the short term.
PMMA
The current domestic PMMA market trend is stable.
influencing factors
PMMA upstream dynamics
Yesterday, the domestic MMA market price was stable, merchants maintained the quotation range, downstream urgently needed to get goods, and the overall shipment situation was average, and is expected to run at a high price today.
future market forecast
The current PMMA market price is strong, with strong support for the cost side, downstream inquiry intentions are mediocre, and the overall trading atmosphere is average.
is expected to run steadily in the short term.
POM
The current domestic POM market atmosphere is mainly organized.
influencing factors
POM Upstream dynamics
Yesterday, the formaldehyde market was large, stable and small, and the downstream market was low and weak, resulting in difficulties in shipment of merchants, rising inventory, and the focus of on-site negotiations fell. is expected to be organized and operated in the near future.
future market forecast
Currently, the upstream formaldehyde of the domestic POM market is weak, with limited support for the cost side, downstream terminal procurement maintains urgent demand for goods, and the overall trading atmosphere on the market is light.
is expected to be expected to be consolidated in the short term.
PET
The current domestic PET market is weak and stalemate.
influencing factors
PET device dynamic
PET upstream dynamic
①PTA: Yesterday, the PTA market fluctuated weakly, the market supply was sufficient, polyester manufacturers lowered prices and promoted, downstream bottom has a strong mentality, production and sales have recovered, but terminal demand orders have not improved yet, and is expected to run weakly today.
②hexanediol : Yesterday, the macro risks and negative factors of the ethylene glycol market were gradually consumed, and commodities recovered and rose. However, there was a lack of substantial positives inside and outside the market, and the upward momentum was limited. is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.
future market forecast
The overall trading atmosphere of the current PET market is average, the upstream double-profile support for the cost side is weak, the upward drive is not strong, and downstream buying is mostly negotiated around the mid- and low positions.
is expected to be in a stalemate in the short-term PET market.
PBTh
The current domestic PBT market price fell by 100 yuan/ton per day.
influencing factors
PBT Upstream dynamics
①PTA: Yesterday, the PTA market fluctuated weakly, the market supply was sufficient, polyester manufacturers lowered prices and promoted promotions, downstream bottom-buying mentality was strong, production and sales rebounded, but terminal demand orders have not improved yet, and is expected to run weakly today.
②BDO: Yesterday, the BDO market was waiting and watched and sorted out. Merchants were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the intention to support prices was obvious. However, downstream demand was weak, and most people needed to add positions. is expected to be consolidated and running today.
future market forecast
The current upstream double-profile in the PBT market has no obvious positive support for the cost side. In addition, the downstream demand is weak and the overall demand in the industry is weak. Although the PBT industry has started at a low level, the source of low-priced goods has increased.
is expected to run weakly in the short-term PBT market.
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