overnight gold escaped from the tightening range adjustment, and showed a strong emotional flow during the stage, but this emotion did not maintain the unilateral emotional trend. Gold prices staged a sweep market during the European session. can also be understood, after all, today is the highlight of the market.
The infiltration of market sentiment yesterday was nothing more than opening the emotional tightening point , and it is also the transitional market we mentioned. Then today, gold should have a strong push. After all, the market will release PCE inflation data today and close the monthly line. I don’t think gold can survive alone!
United States May core PCE price index
1. What is PCE?
PCE is the abbreviation of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (CTPIPCE), is a key indicator for measuring private consumption inflation in the United States. was first launched by the Economic Analysis Bureau of the U.S. Department of Commerce. was adopted as a major indicator for measuring inflation in 2002 by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve's decision-making body.
2. What is the relationship between PCE and Fed policies?
In January 2012, the Federal Reserve set the annual increase of core PCE by 2% as the long-term inflation target, and has since announced that the Federal Reserve has also had a clear inflation target. If the annual rate of core PCE increases by more than 2%, the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy, which is beneficial to the US dollar.
3. What is the difference between CPI and PCE data?
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is based on fixed goods, while PCE is based on personal consumption, and is used to find the average increase in the prices of all personal consumer goods, which can be reflected in consumers purchasing alternative products due to price changes.
Therefore, PCE is considered to be a relatively comprehensive and stable indicator for measuring US inflation. attracted the attention of the Federal Reserve, thus setting the data on PCE as the long-term inflation target.
Current market expects the US PCE data in May to record 4.8%, lower than the previous value of 4.9%. From the market expectations, this is a positive gold data, because the market expectations are lower than the previous value, but the decline in inflation will not prompt the gold price to rise.
First of all, we need to consider why inflation fell? is because the Fed tightens its loose monetary policy. If the Fed achieves controllability of inflation, the probability of a soft landing of the US economy will be increased, and will naturally continue to be negative for gold.
I don't think inflation will continue to rise, as May has entered the Fed's tightening cycle. inflation will fall, but the decline will slow down, Therefore, I think this data may be consistent with market expectations. The probability of data recording a smaller impact is greater, but this will be regarded as negative gold!
Given that data at night will affect the price of gold, should be more cautious in the daytime market sentiment correction. It is expected that gold prices will be under pressure during the Asian and European sessions. This range is still relatively suitable for short trading in gold.
As for the lower part, we still need to pay attention to the downward break of 1814. Only by stabilizing and breaking down can we help gold accelerate its decline to the $1,800 mark! The targets of the continuation stage are 1780 and 1850 US dollars, and are expected to come to the market in early July. When this accelerated decline occurs, we will also enter the next stage of layout!
In the data market, emotions will be quickly digested. What we care more about is the expansion of market sentiment after the data! just participate in the protection and planning of your own!
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