Yesterday, both onshore and offshore RMB fell below the 7.2 mark against the US dollar, the first time since 2008. In the cross-border e-commerce circle, the dynamics about the US dollar exchange rate continue to flood the screen, and some sellers said they had seen the highest e

Yesterday, both onshore and offshore RMB fell below the 7.2 mark against the US dollar, the first time since 2008.

In the cross-border e-commerce circle, the dynamics about the US dollar exchange rate continue to flood the screen, and some sellers said they had seen the highest exchange rate since entering the industry. If the withdrawal time is correct, this wave of increase will bring considerable net profit to sellers who stock up with US dollars. Some economists believe that the long and short periods of time are intertwined in the fourth quarter of this year, and the RMB exchange rate may continue to adjust in the short term. This is a good thing for cross-border e-commerce exports.

However, while the US dollar exchange rate rose, some sellers found that their category peers had begun to sell at a lower price, using the new exchange income as a cost-effective advantage to gain more market share, which gave sellers who have been troubled by low profits for a long time.

competition intensifies, costs are rising and growth slows down. Cross-border sellers are experiencing a year of huge challenges, and service agencies also feel the chill. This year, Swiftline, which offers loans to online merchants, rejected more loan applications, saying many customers have fallen sales and over-leveraged operations. "Seller" has been defined as a high-risk group.

US dollar exchange rate rose above 7.2

Recently, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has been rising all the way into the 7 eras, making many sellers dream back to 2020.

htmlOn September 28, the spot exchange rate of RMB against US dollar fell below more than 7.18, 7.19, 7.20, 7.21, 7.22, 7.23, 7.24 and 7.25 intraday. The onshore RMB was as low as 7.2507 and closed at 7.1995; the offshore RMB exchange rate against US dollar was as low as 7.2672, closing at 7.1556 yesterday. Wind data shows that this is the first time that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has fallen below the 7.2 mark since February 2008. The sharp appreciation of

USD in one day made cross-border e-commerce export sellers excited:

"The dollar exchange rate is 7.21, so awesome!"

"The exchange rate has reached 7.2, and you can exchange it for another 300,000 USD."

"Yesterday was still 7.1, but I changed it to 7.2 today, which is outrageous."

"7.22, the highest exchange rate has been seen since the cross-border..."

Xinghui Co., Ltd. said in response to investors that its export sales revenue accounts for a relatively high proportion of operating income, and settlement is mainly in US dollars, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to the company. The short-term appreciation of

USD has a huge impact on exchange returns. A seller analyzed that the dollar exchange rate rose from 6.5 to 7.1, and his friend's extra exchange rate profits in Amazon last month were more than their one year, which was very fatal. The dollar exchange rate rose above 7.2, and this gap would be even bigger.

For only one or two months, the US dollar exchange rate remained near 6.7 in early August, but has risen to 7.2 now. Now every $1 million withdrawal of sellers can get 500,000 yuan more, which is a real profit.

For the huge sales, this amount is even more considerable.

Rebecca's overseas revenue accounts for about 80% of its revenue, and the company's export business settlement currency is mainly US dollars. The sharp depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is not only conducive to the company's product exports, but also may generate exchange returns and reduce financial costs. In the first half of the year, its company generated exchange income of 37.4941 million yuan.

sells well. However, due to operational turnover needs, most ordinary sellers will not have too many US dollars in their accounts, so it is not easy to get the exchange income. A seller raised all the US dollar that had been stockpiled for more than half a year at 6.3 because he couldn't wait for the US dollar to appreciate.

Before the end of April this year, the US dollar exchange rate was at a relatively low level for a long time, and the US dollar rebounded after that, and most sellers seized the rising exchange rate and instantly withdrew the balance in the account. In late September, the US dollar rose above 7, and the seller was overjoyed and did not specifically reserve the withdrawal. Therefore, after the US dollar unexpectedly rose above 7.2 yesterday, many people felt sorry for not being able to leave a large amount of US dollars to withdraw at a high level.

Against the backdrop of the current industry situation, the US dollar exchange rate breaking 7 is a great comfort for people across borders. Some sellers calmly looked at exchange rate changes and said that although it was pleasant to withdraw cash, the purchasing power of Americans also declined. In comparison, he still hoped to receive more sales orders. The same is true in reality, and feedback on order reductions has increased in the past two days.Some sellers also hold different views on

, believing that the slight decline in orders is not a big deal. After all, the rise in exchange rate brings net profit. Just when the US dollar appreciates hedges and orders decline, market still rises.

At the same time, in the foreign trade field, some B-side customers have begun to seek price cuts. One merchant said that overseas customers had lowered the price by $0.3 on Tuesday; another merchant faced a larger decline. "In June, customers asked for a price reduction, we reduced the price by 2%, and now customers asked all suppliers to reduce the price by 4%-6%. "As the US dollar exchange rate continues to rise, some customers even began to actively communicate with foreign trade companies to settle in RMB.

The reason for the short-term decline in the RMB exchange rate is Fed aggressive rate hike . On September 21, US Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point rate hike, raising the target range of the federal funds rate to between 3.00% and 3.25%. This is the fifth time the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates this year, the largest intensive rate hike since 1981, and has raised interest rates by 300 basis points this year.

September 26th Central Bank announced that in order to stabilize foreign exchange market expectations and strengthen macro-prudent management of , it decided to increase the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange sales business from 0 to 20% from September 28, 2022. Starting from September 15, the central bank also lowered the reserve ratio of foreign exchange deposits for financial institutions by 2 percentage points, lowering the reserve ratio of foreign exchange deposits from 8% to 6%.

On September 29, the mid-price of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in was 7.1102 yuan, up 5 basis points from the previous value, stopping the momentum of "nine consecutive declines".

Since the beginning of this year, the onshore exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar and the offshore market of have both fallen by more than 13%. Federal Reserve officials expect that the rate hikes in the last two FOMC meetings this year may reach 125 basis points, and the exchange rate of currencies such as the RMB is still under pressure.

Excellent philanthropist? Some sellers have begun to lower prices

. Although the market is not prosperous enough, fortunately, the decline in shipping costs and rising exchange rates have greatly alleviated the operating pressure of sellers. But the US dollar appreciated, and some sellers began to lower prices and used this income to increase sales, which caused a lot of resentment.

" exchange rate has risen so quickly, and I saw a large number of competitors directly lowering prices, and the conversion rate has dropped sharply. It is not a good thing to rise in exchange rates. " said a seller. Similar situations are not uncommon for

. The rebound of the US dollar in the second half of the year allowed US sellers to enjoy exchange rate dividends, but the price reduction operation began to spread soon. In the words of sellers, they only make 1 yuan no matter how much the exchange rate rises, and any extra yuan will deviate from the original intention of doing charity. Holding the unheated foreign exchange income deepens the spiral on the market, which makes sellers who have been tortured by low profits for a long time angry, and the extra profits may be swallowed up again.

On Amazon, the low average customer price of some products is puzzled. Isn’t this a loss? Why can it continue to advance?

's big V "The Factory Manager in the Wind" posted a question from a netizen: Why are many Chinese sellers on Amazon's US so low that they are outrageously low. After calculating the other party's cost, they are all at a loss. For example, if it sells for a product price of US$15.99, the other party sells five or six pieces for the same price. How can they make money? There are four main reasons for

sellers. First, these sellers have extremely strong supply chains, and can use scale effects to control costs to the extreme; second, the function of this product is to attract traffic at a loss and drive the sales of other profitable products in the store; third, strategic losses in the early stage, and then slowly increase the price after pushing the link ranking; fourth, clearing the stock to avoid long-term storage fees and other costs after becoming redundant inventory.

In addition to the temporary losses, some sellers also expressed another possibility. "The price of some categories of products is more realistic than the money spent on advertising, which shows that the opponent is still a bit powerful, whether in terms of channels or funds. Or the purpose is to promote big promotions, and the specific products need to be analyzed in detail." The director of

also cited a case of a leading seller. The ex-factory product priced at more than 100 yuan was sold by the seller before, but now he only sells it for more than 20 yuan, and one piece lost at least a few dozen yuan.The reason for this operation is that it is developing new products in categories and using this product to attract traffic at a low price.

However, some sellers pointed out that for big sales, spirals can be used as a flexible means to verify the market. Products that cannot even make extreme losses can be completely eliminated; but this way of playing is obviously not suitable for small sellers because there is not much room for strategy and trial and error.

The current situation of domestic Amazon sellers is not satisfactory, and domestic American sellers are not having a good time. Most of them have no hope for this year's peak holiday season.

Amazon sellers are preparing for a bleak holiday season

According to Bloomberg, Amazon sellers are preparing for a bleak holiday shopping season because consumers have suppressed their shopping spending due to inflation .

Steven Pope is an Amazon seller who has been selling gifts on Amazon for 7 years. He said he had never been nervous about the holiday season as he is now.

This year, the sales of Steven Pope's $50 "mom gift box" (including shower gel, soap and lotion) fell by more than 50% compared with 2021. He fears that will see a similar decline in consumption before Christmas, as shoppers focus on essentials and don’t have that much money to buy other products.

Foreign company Unybrands sells products in categories such as babies, fitness and personal care. The company's managers said that Unybrands is trying to control prices by cutting logistics and other means. Sellers from

are also taking similar measures to reduce costs and adapt to new consumer demand.

Two years ago, Montreal 's Marlee Rabin launched her brand Homie Collection on Amazon, with the best-selling of a $25 transparent plastic cutlery box. She is preparing to launch a smaller kitchen storage box this year, which is expected to sell for less than $10. Besides targeting cost-conscious shoppers, smaller, lighter products can also save her a lot of Amazon storage and shipping costs.

" I am willing to sell higher prices, but in this environment, I think lower-priced products will do better. " said Marlee Rabin.

Almost all sellers feel that the market is getting cold this year. Small seller Nancy Philips sells used books on Amazon. She snatched some old books when she was clearing out the yard and library, which were not easy to sell and have been stranded in the warehouse for about a year.

Nancy Philips is cutting the prices of these used books drastically because her storage fees will rise without clearing the sale as Amazon raises storage costs for unsold products in peak seasons.

"Originally sold for $20, I lowered the price to $10 or less. During the sales process, I had to pay Amazon all the fees was about $8, so I couldn't make money, but I needed to get rid of the inventory."

Many sellers selling on Amazon had to sell lower prices to clear off excess inventory. In the early stages of the outbreak, sellers saw the rapid growth of online channels and increased their investment and made retaliatory stockings. Nowadays, market demand has suddenly changed, and the goods prepared by sellers are seriously backlogged in the warehouse.

According to Insider Intelligence, U.S. online sales will only grow 9.4% to $1 trillion this year, with growth falling to single digits for the first time, and the agency lowered its previous annual forecast in June. The research firm said spending on Amazon would reach $400 billion, a 9% increase lower than the industry as a whole. "Apart from basic necessities, consumers don't seem to spend too much elsewhere, so sellers must provide discounts and coupons that impress consumers to promote sales. For sellers, it may be a cost increase, and the fourth quarter of this year looks scary." Amazon sellers are experiencing a cold winter amid a sluggish consumption, but with inflation relief payments to be issued in many states in the United States, the next sales of sellers can be expected.

17 states in the United States send money

According to CNBC, 17 states in the United States have or plan to send money to residents by sending kickback checks to fight the impact of ongoing inflation.

These 17 states include California , Colorado , Delaware, Florida , Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, etc. Tax refunds vary in each state, and the amount of relief available, income limits, eligibility, and payment dates vary.

California : residents can receive a tax refund of up to $1,050. For those who have an individual income of no more than $250,000, the head of the household income does not exceed $500,000, and the couple jointly declare income of no more than $500,000, if they are California residents for at least 6 months in 2020 and are California residents at the time of the tax refund, they are eligible for tax refunds from the California Taxation Bureau.

Colorado : cashback tax refund is only for tax returns who are over 18 years of age on December 31, 2021, who live in Colorado for the whole year of 2021, and who file a state tax return in the 2021 income tax year. Eligible residents will receive US$750 per person and are expected to be credited at the end of this month.

Delaware : The 2022 Delaware Tax Rebate Program is for residents who filed their 2020 or 2021 tax returns as of December 31, 2021, or who are over 18 years of age, for $300 per person and $600 for joint archivers.

Florida: Governor Ron DeSantis announced a one-time $450 tax refund check that is specifically for low-income earners participating in temporary assistance programs for poor families. Families who care for children are also eligible for tax refunds if they are part of the custody assistance program, which is $450.

Georgia: A single tax applicant can receive $250, the household head can receive up to $375, and the couple can apply for a maximum of $500.

Hawaii : Single applicants with incomes less than $100,000, or couples with incomes less than $200,000 will receive $300 per person. The benefit also applies to families with families, and a family of four will receive $1,200. Taxpayers who earn $100,000 or more, or couples who earn $200,000 or more will receive $100 each. In addition to states above

, a total of 17 states in the United States can receive inflation relief funds, which undoubtedly stimulates purchases. Especially in the context of the epidemic and inflation, American consumers seem to be accustomed to online shopping, and the proportion of online sales has also increased.

sellers can prepare for holiday sales

related data forecast, the compound annual growth rate of US B2C e-commerce from 2022 to 2026 is 10.22%. The country's total B2C e-commerce commodity value will increase from US$140.83 billion in 2021 to US$232.39 billion in 2026, with considerable medium- and long-term growth prospects.

US sales growth declined in 2021, but the total purchase volume is still far higher than the pre-epidemic level. This decline in growth is due to some consumers returning to offline physical stores to shop. But in 2022, online sales in the United States are expected to accelerate, and as online shopping gradually develops into a trend, large retailers including Amazon and Walmart will benefit.

As online shopping becomes increasingly convenient and the fulfillment and delivery services provided by e-commerce platforms are becoming more mature, is expected to further develop in the next three to four years. Meanwhile, sales in the U.S. holiday season will also rise this year.

MasterCard Spending Pulse's annual holiday season forecast shows that during the upcoming 2022 holiday season, retail sales in the U.S. excluding automotive products are expected to grow by 7.1% year-on-year.

Creatopy surveyed the holiday consumption intentions of several American respondents. The survey showed that most respondents wanted to start shopping one month before the holiday (29.38%), while a considerable number of people planned to start shopping two months in advance (19.97%). Some plan to shop two weeks ahead of schedule (11.42%) and even closer to the event. This holiday season, the overall consumption trend of American consumers is to be completed as soon as possible.

Inflation may not have a huge impact on holiday spending, but there are indeed many consumers who have some concerns. Nevertheless, overall holiday consumption may not decrease, because shopping is ahead of schedule and consumers are likely to spread their shopping expenses over several months.

conducts a survey on consumer purchase trends. For sellers, if they want to achieve good sales during the holiday season, they need to pay attention to the following points:

1. High-quality products and services must be provided : High-quality products and better logistics and distribution services can greatly promote consumers to place orders;

2. Online advertising : 40.63% of American consumers will buy because they see related online advertisements, which means that sellers have a great opportunity. Promote sales during the holiday season by placing advertisements;

3. Focus on Social media marketing : 35.14% of consumers consider buying from social media channels. Sellers need to pay attention to this channel. When promoting social media, they need to pay attention to publishing content regularly and find suitable internet celebrities to promote;

4. Provide competitive prices : The YouGov survey shows that 95% of holiday shoppers say they are actively looking for ways to save money. Because of inflation concerns, they will spend less or wait for promotions, and 52% of consumers will buy gifts when they have coupons, discounts or promotions. On the other hand, part of the reason why consumers choose to shop online is because they can view prices in real time. Apparently, offering competitive discounts can drive sales growth.

The consumption expenditure level in the US market during the holiday season is quite considerable, but consumption situations may change at any time. It is certain that economic instability will affect consumers' willingness and budget for purchasing certain goods. Therefore, cross-border sellers need to keep up with consumption trends and make good sales deployment during the holiday season.