Investment Consulting Business Qualification: Securities Regulatory Commission License [2011] No. 1292
Zhang Xiaozhen (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0003135
As of the close of September 26, the main 2211 contract of China's INE crude oil futures fell 45.5 yuan/barrel to 610.3 yuan/barrel, a drop of 6.94%.
Oil prices have performed weakly recently. The concerns of the recession caused by interest rate hikes under high inflation constitute the dominant factor in the recent weakness of oil prices.
One, last week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes 75BP announced a rate hike in 75BP in line with market expectations, but the dot chart of Fed is biased against the eagle. The Federal Reserve also hinted that it will raise interest rates by another 125 basis points this year, with US Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, with US Federal Reserve's US Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes 75BP in line with market expectations, but the dot chart of Fed is biased against the eagle. The Federal Reserve also hinted that it will raise interest rates by another 125 basis points this year, with US Federal Reserve's US Federal Reserve's US Federal Reserve's US Federal Reserve's US Federal Reserve's US Federal Reserve's dot chart is biased against the eagle. The Federal Reserve also hinted that it will raise interest rates by another 125 basis points this year. The boots for the reserve interest rate hike have landed, and many overseas central banks also competed to join the interest rate hike camp. The UK announced a 50 basis point interest rate hike, Switzerland announced a 75 basis point interest rate hike, South Africa 75 basis point interest rate hike, and Indonesia 50 basis point interest rate hike. Under the pressure of high inflation, the continued interest rate hike of European and American central banks has brought tightening of liquidity and concerns about economic recession, which has led to the rise of the US dollar and US bonds , while the risk preferences of commodities , including crude oil, are under pressure; in addition, the substantial weakening of demand under the pressure of economic slowdown has also caused commodity prices to fall.
Second, driving The peak is approaching the end of demand, and the weakening of gasoline demand and the end of the driving peak season have caused the gasoline cracking price spread to fall to the historical range, while the cracking price spread of diesel and aviation coal is still at a high level. In the later period, with the increase in macroeconomic pressure and slowing economic growth, the further weakening of demand for refined oil may further decline the price spread of diesel and kerosene cracking further decline, thereby weakening the support for crude oil demand.
Looking forward to the future market, although the uncertainty of supply and demand is intertwined, the main line of market trading in the later period may still be on the demand side, and the downward risks brought by the macro-economic recession may still dominate the downward trend of oil prices. The institutional balance table shows that the overall supply and demand of crude oil will continue to be oversupply in the fourth quarter, but the supply side in the fourth quarter Many uncertainties (Russia-Ukraine conflict, EU sanctions on Russia, OPEC+ initiative production cuts, etc.) may continue to hinder the downward trend of oil prices and form phased support for oil prices. Overall, it is expected that oil prices will show a downward trend of operating centers in the later period.
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