Hello everyone! I am Wang Qingzhang from "Niu Ben Finance"! Today is September 2nd. Today's article title is "Stock index bottoms out and rebounds will be chosen soon. Foreign futures will increase their positions again. Pay attention to the pressure of triple top rebound"
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[All opinions, do not do basis for buying and selling, the stock market has risks, and investment should be cautious]
[Overnight external trading] overnight external trading, European and American stock markets have rise and fall. On Tuesday, Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up collectively. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 215.61 points, or 0.76%, to 28,645.66 points; the Nasdaq rose 164.21 points, or 1.39%, to 11,939.67 points; the S&P 500 rose 26.34 points, or 0.75%, to 3,526.65 points. Commodity market: International gold prices surged and fell, closing below the $1,980 mark. As of the close, the most active December gold futures market trading in the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $0.3 on the 1st compared with the previous trading day, closing at $1,978.9 per ounce, an increase of 0.02%; international oil prices closed higher, with U.S. oil and Brent oil rising both within 1%. As of the close, New York's October crude oil futures closed up $0.15, or 0.35%, at $42.76 per barrel.
2. Market review
1. Foreign capital is called the smartest capital. After increasing positions for five consecutive days before last Thursday, the market experienced a long-lost big rebound. But Monday morning reminds that it is not suitable to chase highs. Then it surged and fell back in the afternoon! But yesterday pointed out that the 3380-3360 range below the stock index has strong support. Once support is obtained, the short-term market still needs to rebound. Yesterday, the stock index fell back to around 3380 at the lowest point, and rebounded at the end of the trading session! Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened relatively low in the early trading session, and the bulls and bears repeatedly competed in the 3380 area, and the market was full of wait-and-see sentiment. As the end of the trading session approached, the stock index bottomed out and rebounded and closed up, achieving a good start in September! From the market perspective, the market's money-making effect is average and sector differentiation is intensifying. The leading sectors are mainly in national defense and military industry, Tesla , new energy vehicles, electrical equipment, white goods, non-ferrous metals, etc.; but the food processing, energy mining, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and building materials sectors have been adjusted.
2. Technically, after the stock index rose and fell on Monday, it bottomed out yesterday. In the short term, the market still needs to rise, but we should still pay attention to the pressure in the previous high range of 3430-3450! The idea this week is to continue to sell highs! Prevent the market from rising and falling again near the triple top! Judging from economic data, the recovery of fundamentals will be intensively realized in the second half of the year, and the easing of capital markets will continue to at least the end of the year, and market demand will tilt towards core assets. Pay attention to the opportunity of lurking every time you step back and never chase high prices.
1, yesterday the three major A-share indexes bottomed out and rebounded, collectively closing slightly higher, and the Shanghai Composite Index recovered the 3400-point integer mark. However, the market trading volume shrank, with a total turnover of 851.4 billion yuan in the two markets, and the industry sectors rose and fell. Tesla and military sectors lead the rise strongly. Northbound funds sold a net sale of 300 million yuan. The net inflow of Shanghai Stock Connect was -812 million yuan, the net inflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 2.743 billion yuan, and the total inflow of northbound funds was 1.931 billion yuan.
2, [Foreign futures chip trends] [After foreign futures increased long positions for five consecutive days before last Thursday, the market rebounded for a long time! After that, foreign capital reduced its positions for two consecutive days, and the stock index rose and fell. However, yesterday, foreign capital increased its long positions of 765 lots. short-term stock index fell back to the level, and there is still a need to rise, but pay attention to the range pressure of 3430-3450-3480 above to prevent the surge and fall. And look at the support in the range 3370-3350-3300 below! Because sectors have been rotating too quickly recently, operations must keep up with the pace of the market.
4, technically
1, the market was still a volatile market this week. The stock index rose and fell on Monday, and the stock index bottomed out and rebounded yesterday. As for the market on Wednesday and Thursday, we will continue to pay attention to the pressure on the upper edge of the triangle consolidation 3440-3450 points. In the short term, the market will be under pressure and support from the bottom, and will maintain a volatile operating pattern in the short term. But the market will choose its direction later, it depends on how to choose? If you choose to move upward, go long, otherwise be careful! The pressure around 3458 is still paid attention to the pressure above the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, and the pressure around 2800-2850 is paid attention to the pressure on the ChiNext! In addition, the main high-quality sectors are currently overvalued, and the market generally has the mentality of reducing positions when highs, so in terms of operation, you still need to pay attention to band operations.
2. With the announcement of the interim report, the stock index still needs to rise and rebound this week! In the long run, with the gradual improvement of institutional construction, it is worth looking forward to. But the road is tortuous! From the daily line, the daily line MACD blue column began to gradually shrink after the dead cross, and at the same time, the KDJ indicator showed signs of a gold cross rising. This indicates that the short-term market still needs to rebound. But pay attention to the coordination of trading volume! Prevent the market from falling again after rising in early September. Investors should not be impatient in their operations and do not chase high prices! Continue to pay attention to the concept of low valuation and stagflation-type performance forecast growth!
3, due to the influence of the registration system, the market direction may change in the future market, and the possibility of choosing large stocks increases, such as large companies, industry leaders, good background, high performance growth, etc. Try to be careful about the poor performance of bears, there is no bottom at all! In the short term, you can pay attention to the varieties with clear growth in the semi-annual report performance when the dips are low. In terms of operations, you should control your positions, sell high and buy low, and stay away from poor-performing stocks and junk stocks.
5, Market observation
The current semi-annual report market has come to an end. The three fires brought by the new registration system have declined, the market expectations have gradually stabilized, the market has entered a short period of rest, and the impact of the news has been amplified. The three red lines drawn by regulators for real estate have been confirmed, and the tightening of real estate market policies has once again stifled the previous fantasy of improving the performance of real estate companies by relying on the downward trend of risk-free interest rates. Therefore, the market still lacks the continuous rise of sectors that can take the lead in the short term, but there is no need to worry too much. Judging from the economic data, the recovery of fundamentals will be intensively realized in the second half of the year, and the loose capital market will continue to at least the end of the year. Market demand will tilt towards core assets, and the stock selection logic of the strong will always be strong. Investors are advised to strategically plan core targets for securities companies, old infrastructure, insurance, and home appliances, and actively participate in trading opportunities in digital currency, automobile industry chain, and national defense and military industry in the short term.
6, Industry Information
According to the vitamin industry website, BASF vitamin A (VA) 1000 and VAD3 have unstable and stable quality, and it is difficult to supply normally in 2020. The specific recovery time cannot be judged for the time being, and BASF will report progress and prospects in November 2020. Previous news said that VA and VAD3, the German factory in BASF stopped shipment due to quality reasons (low stability), and the orders were stopped in the third quarter. Vitamin A supply is further limited. Industry insiders said that the third and fourth quarters are the traditional peak sales seasons of the vitamin industry. The supply interruption of BASF, as an industry giant, will further push up vitamin-related products. Under the stable supply and demand pattern, the prices of VA, VE and other products will remain high. As prices remain strong, the peak season in the fourth quarter will be the highest profitable quarter for industry-related companies. The industry integration of Nengte Technology and DSM has a far-reaching impact on the vitamin E industry structure. Affected by the epidemic, the completion time of Nengte’s transformation is expected to be delayed. The global supply of vitamin E tightens, and VE is likely to recover to 80,000-100,000/ton. VA and intermediate citral can maintain a normal price of more than 320,000/ton under the stable supply pattern. With the explosion of downstream demand, the industry is expected to usher in an increase in both volume and price.
Recently, Huawei's official website shows that the 2020 Huawei Developer Conference will be held in Songshan Lake, Dongguan from September 10th to 12th, Beijing time. It is understood that this conference includes three key topics: Hongmeng system, HMS Core 5.0 and EMUI 11. As the first full-scene distributed operating system based on microkernel, the Hongmeng system was independently developed by Huawei. Previously, there was news that Huawei Hongmeng OS2.0 is coming soon, and new Huawei watches, PCs, and even tablets will be launched within the year.
Minister of Industry and Information Technology Xiao Yaqing recently emphasized in Shanghai when investigating industries such as large aircraft and aviation engine development in Shanghai that it is necessary to accelerate the pace of innovation and make my country's large aircraft, aviation engines and integrated circuit industries; strive to achieve major breakthroughs in key areas and key technologies; give full play to the advantages of information technology, accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of the industry, and improve the stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain and supply chain. At present, my country has established a relatively complete aviation engine development and production system, with a series of engine development and production capabilities such as turbojet, turbofan, turboshaft and other engines. Domestic engines have been equipped with fighter jets, transport aircraft, bombers and other models. Feng Fuzhang of Anxin Securities believes that aircraft engines have an extremely important strategic position and domestic production is imperative. With the finalization and mass production of new models of military aircraft, OEMs with monopoly and scarcity will benefit significantly.
7, new stock subscription
Huaxiang shares: subscription code 732112, issue price 7.82 yuan/share, issue price-earnings ratio 22.98 times. Comparable companies: Hengrun Co., Ltd. (603985)
(for investors' reference only and does not constitute investment advice; the stock market is risky, so investment should be cautious.)
8, information navigation
National Industrial Internet Standards General Group work has officially started.
Development and Reform solicitation of opinions on the catalog of encouraged industries in Hainan Free Trade Port.
Huawei developer conference will be held next week and related companies will attract attention.
Geely Automobile entered the Science and Technology Innovation Board and electrification became the key layout direction.
The meeting of the Deep Reform Commission emphasized the importance of food security and agriculture.
my country will accelerate the development of aircraft engines, and its strategic position has attracted much attention.
"Greater Bay Area No. 1" cruise ship is officially put into operation and is equipped with CATL's power battery.
Vitamin giant BASF has been limited in supply this year, and the price and volume of vitamins are expected to rise in the peak season.
my country has successfully developed the largest brain-like computer in neurons, based on independent intellectual property rights.
Xiong'an New Area actively applies for cross-border e-commerce pilot projects and explores cross-border payments for digital currencies.
Huawei Cloud Kunpeng Cloud mobile phone is online for public beta, and you can enjoy the flagship-class user experience without using stack configuration.
China Automobile Dealers Association: The automobile market enters peak season in September, and automobile sales are expected to grow significantly.
Development and Reform Commission: Hainan Free Trade Port newly added encouraged industries are planned to include yachts, cruise ship R&D and manufacturing industries.
Industry and Information Technology: Accelerate the pace of innovation and build my country's large aircraft, aviation engines and integrated circuit industries.
Comprehensively Deepening Reform Commission reviewed and passed the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of Foreign Trade" and other documents.
The symposium on stabilizing growth of state-owned enterprises in Shanghai was held on September 1, requiring measures such as accelerating the reform of mixed ownership and the reform of professional manager salary system.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released the second batch of new energy vehicles going to the countryside, including 14 auto companies and 36 models including SAIC-GM-Wuling, BYD , Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motors.
FTSE Russell will announce the annual assessment results of the World Government Bond Index on September 24. Standard Chartered believes that there is an 80% possibility of inclusion in Chinese bonds, which can bring US$140 billion to US$170 billion passive capital
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