大家好！ I am Wang Qingzhang from "Niu Ben Finance"! today is November 17th. The title of today's article is "The logic of stock indexes counterattack, prevent high and low switching in market differentiation, pay attention to sector rotation! 》
[All opinions, no basis for trading, the stock market is risky, investment should be cautious]
1, [Message]
[Logistic analysis of yesterday's market rebound? 】 First, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement was officially implemented, and the establishment of the world's largest free trade zone has made substantial benefits for my country's import and export trade and enterprises relying on overseas industrial chains; secondly, on the capital side, the central bank carried out a one-year MLF operation of 800 billion yuan, with a winning rate of 2.95%. Compared with the cumulative maturity of 600 billion in November, the scale of this sequel to 200 billion yuan, far exceeding market expectations, and the market's concerns about the capital side have been alleviated; again, the regulatory authorities hinted that blue-chip stocks were the first to implement the T+0 reform; finally, the loosening of insurance funds is also a good thing for the market!
[Overnight foreign market] On Monday, Eastern Time, European and American stock markets closed higher, and the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher collectively! Specifically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 470.63 points, or 1.60%, to 29,950.44 points; the Nasdaq closed up 94.84 points, or 0.80%, to 11,924.13 points; the S&P 500 closed up 41.76 points, or 1.16%, to 3,626.91 points. Product Market: On Monday Eastern Time, international oil prices rose significantly, and U.S. oil futures closed up more than 3%. As of the closing, New York December crude oil futures closed up $1.21, or 3.02%, at $41.34 per barrel. Brent's January crude oil futures closed up $1.04, or 2.43%, at $43.82 per barrel. International gold prices closed slightly higher, closing below the $1,890 mark. As of the close, the most active December gold futures market in the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures market rose by US$1.6 on the 16th compared with the previous trading day, closing at US$1,887.8 per ounce, an increase of 0.08%.
2. Market review
1. Stimulated by various positive effects on the weekend, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were fluctuating and rebounding yesterday. After the stock indexes fell continuously last week, the market finally rebounded! However, yesterday, major indexes were severely differentiated. The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded strongly under the pull-up of resource stocks, while the GEM and SME Board just turned red! The three major indexes have significantly differentiated, and non-ferrous metals and coal have set off a wave of daily limit! From the perspective of industry sectors, yesterday, ports, liquor, trade, construction, coal, nonferrous metals, chemical and other sectors ranked among the top in growth, but semiconductors, instrumentation, electronic manufacturing, communications, and automobile chains were in adjustment. Overall, there were no big rises in the cyclical industries that had a big rise in the early stage, while high-priced stocks performed sluggishly! sectors have been rotating recently, try to avoid high-level stocks and look for sectors that have just started at the bottom!
2. In the early trading last Monday and Tuesday, I have been reminding everyone to be careful of the changes in the 11th of this month to prevent the stocks and stocks from falling again around the mid-term! The Shanghai Composite Index fell back to 3291 points last Friday and rebounded, and yesterday it rebounded under positive stimulation! technically, although the short-term market has rebounded, since the high divergence of each index is close to the pressure zone, plus the divergence of the indicators, prevents the stock index from rising and falling again, and then waits for the retracement to confirm before paying attention! After mid-November, the stock index still needs to fluctuate and fall back and wash the market. I will dig another gold pit, but it will be a small rebound opportunity to pull back at the end of the month!
3, From the trend point of view, the market has basically fluctuated in the 3180-3400 range in recent months, and the Shanghai Composite Index's 3180-3200 points are also the dividing line between the bulls and bears in the near future! Since a large number of chip cost lines were concentrated in this position in the early stage, as long as this position is not broken, the market will rebound in the short term! If the market falls below, it will also attract short positions, and there is a high probability that the bottom will form below! As the market retraces back, the technical side has temporarily gained support in the 3220-3180 range below, but in the upper side, it is trapped in the 3380-3400 range.In terms of operations, avoid the risks of high-priced stocks and look for opportunities for sectors expected to increase their performance and the 14th Five-Year Plan!
3, capital trends
1, the three major A-share indexes closed up collectively yesterday, of which the Shanghai Composite Index performed strongly, closing up 1.11% and closing at 3346.97 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.70% and closing at 13850.83 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.21% and closing at 2712.41 points. The two markets had a total turnover of 801 billion yuan, most of the industry sectors closed higher, while the non-ferrous metals and liquor sectors rose sharply. Northbound funds had net purchases of 2.589 billion yuan yesterday, the net purchase amount of Shanghai Stock Connect funds reached 3.766 billion yuan, and the net sale amount of Shenzhen Stock Connect funds reached 1.177 billion yuan.
2, it is worth noting that [at the end of October and early November, foreign futures generally increased their positions in long positions! However, since last Monday, foreign futures reduced long positions when they were high, and last week, foreign futures reduced long positions by more than 6,000 lots! The market rebounded yesterday on Monday, and foreign futures continued to reduce long positions by 5244 lots! It is expected that after the stock index rebounds in the short term, there is still a need to pull back! ]
4, technical aspects
1, yesterday the market had a significant boosting effect on the market's fundamentals, capital and policy aspects under the stimulation of multiple positive news. Stimulate the Shanghai Composite Index to rebound, and the cyclical sectors will rise collectively! But the ChiNext and SME Board have turned slightly red! Market differentiation is still serious. From a technical perspective, it is still in the box oscillation. The bottom is an important support. The bottom of the Shanghai Composite Index is the 20 moving average and the gap, and the small and medium-sized entrepreneurs are the 20-day moving average. The Shanghai Composite Index looks at the competition between the 20 moving average and the gap, while the SME Board and the ChiNext Board look at the competition between the 20-day moving average! It is expected that after the market rebounds at the beginning of this week, there is a high probability of fluctuation and falling back again! During the high-level fluctuation, the market will face differentiation, avoid the direction of high-level stocks and look for opportunities for bottom-level stocks! From a trend perspective, major indexes pay attention to the previous high pressure, and prevent the stock index from failing to break through and then rising and falling again! From the perspective of industry fundamentals, the main line is currently mainly focused on the 14th Five-Year Plan! For example, the new energy industry chain, semiconductors, large consumption fields, photovoltaics, white goods and other varieties. But try to lurk as much as possible, not suitable for chasing highs! The rotation of the sector is accelerating, and it is easy to get trapped even if you chase highs! Pay attention to dips, band operation is the best strategy! Pay attention to avoid stocks with a cumulatively high gains and control positions.
2. In the short term, although the stock index still needs to continue to rebound after a sharp drop, we must also prevent it from fluctuating and falling again after mid-November! In terms of operation, try to find the bottom and avoid the stocks at the previous highs! The technical indicators, the daily KDJ, began to top divergence, and the red column shrank again after the daily MACD cross, indicating that the stock index needs to fluctuate in the short term. After a short-term rebound, it will be confirmed after the mid-month period. The pressure of the range of 33380-3400-3430 is above, and the support of the range of 3250-3200-3180 is below! In the short term, pay attention to avoiding stocks with poor performance and high performance prices. Most of the stocks that have fallen sharply recently are among the stocks with poor performance!
5, market observation
1, the 14th Five-Year Plan may become a new breakthrough in the market development. In terms of specific directions, wait patiently for the stock index to fall back and then pay attention to new energy, new energy vehicles, national defense and military industry, big technology, industrial Internet, food security, etc. that have responded in the early stage; in addition, countries have recently issued relevant policies in the direction of industrial big data and state-owned enterprise reform. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to the direction of growth significantly exceeding expectations in the third quarter report; in the medium term, it is optimistic about internal circulation and pro-cyclical industries; in the long term, you can pay attention to the expected gap in the 14th Five-Year Plan and focus on the direction of development. In terms of specific operations, control positions, and high-quality concepts can be used to buy at low prices in batches.
2, in the context of long-term fundamental lift, adjustment is actually a better opportunity to configure. In terms of specific directions, focus on the value of low-valuation allocations such as banks, securities, and insurance! As well as high prosperity directions such as national defense and military industry, semiconductors, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics. In terms of opportunity, we focus on two directions: first, cyclical stocks with low valuations.Secondly, the prosperity continues to be in a positive direction, such as new energy vehicles, engineering machinery, military industry and consumer electronics sectors!
6, Industry Information
1, supply tightness combined with the support of winter storage demand, the price of ammonium monomethane has ushered in a rapid increase
Recently, the domestic price of ammonium phosphate has ushered in a rapid increase. As of November 13, the quotation of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei Province, the main production area of 1 ammonium, has reached 2,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.5% in the past week; the quotation of 58% ammonium powder is 2,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 9% in the past week; the quotation of 60% ammonium powder is 2,225 yuan/ton, an increase of 4% in the past week. At present, some companies have restricted signing and sealing orders, and the mentality of buying and rising downstream is gradually rising, and the actual order price continues to rise.
2, domestic and foreign supply was lower than expected, glufosinate price is expected to rise again
November 13, the average trading price of 95% glufosinate was 162,500 yuan/ton, up 3.17% from the previous week. As the production capacity in North China and East China was not released as scheduled, mainstream suppliers were in short supply. From the perspective of foreign markets, it is reported that BASF will close its base in Muskigon, Michigan, the United States, and a production plant in the Knapsack region of Germany. The production line mainly produces the non-selective herbicide glufosinate (GA) and its intermediates, and the market supply may be reduced. Affected by the increase in the price of basic raw materials, the price of glufosinate is expected to maintain a high fluctuation.
3, lithium iron phosphate batteries installed in total, and major manufacturers have produced
Recently released data, in October, a total of 3.4GWh of ternary lithium batteries were installed, up 15.7% year-on-year and down 19.1% month-on-month; lithium iron phosphate batteries were installed in total 2.4GWh, up 127.5% year-on-year and up 3.5% month-on-month. Hot-selling electric vehicles such as Tesla Model 3 and Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, all use lithium iron phosphate batteries with lower cost on a large scale.
7, new stock subscription
Shengxun shares: subscription code 003004, issue price 20.26 yuan/share, issue price-earnings ratio 22.99 times.
OCBC Bank bond: subscription code 072973, rating AA-, conversion value of 100.35.
(for investors' reference only and does not constitute investment advice; the stock market is risky, so investment should be cautious.)
8, information navigation
8, NDRC Industry Department held a symposium on the development of manufacturing services industry. The signing of
RCEP is an important milestone in regional economic integration.
Home and foreign supply is lower than expected, and glufosinate prices are expected to rise again.
Central Bank: cancel the credit reporting business registration of four companies including Koala Credit Reporting.
is driven by the positive supply and demand, and the price of industrial-grade dimethyl carbonate has risen by 12%.
Lithium iron phosphate battery installation volume doubled year-on-year, and major manufacturers are full production.
State Grid released a full-region industrial Internet platform and accelerated digital transformation.
supply tightness combined with the support of winter storage demand, the price of ammonium monoxide has ushered in a rapid rise.
Energy Bureau solicits the "14th Five-Year Plan" energy development opinions: green and low-carbon energy development.
Macau encourages Greater Bay Area enterprises to come to Australia to issue bonds and implement the pilot program of cross-border two-way "wealth management connectivity".
State Council agreed to establish a pilot inter-ministerial joint meeting system for another 30 years after the second round of land contract expires.
The central bank carried out MLF operations of 800 billion yuan, with net injections reaching 200 billion yuan this month, continuing the reasonable and abundant operation style in the early stage.
The Energy Bureau publicly solicits opinions and suggestions on the research and preparation of the energy plan in the "14th Five-Year Plan", and plans to involve energy security guarantees, green and low-carbon development of energy.
Four Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETFs opened high and closed low on the first day of listing. Products under Huaxia and E Fund received net inflows of more than 1.7 billion yuan and nearly 570 million yuan respectively, while products under ICBC Credit Suisse and Huatai-Prudential had a net outflow.
The year-on-year growth rate of macroeconomic indicators such as investment and consumption in October hit a new high this year. The National Bureau of Statistics expects that the economic growth rate will further accelerate in the fourth quarter and can achieve the expected goals for the whole year.
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